All-Star Break means taking stock, so let's examine the season at mid-life and pick the winners, losers and kncukleheads.
It's been a sub-par half-year for the best player in baseball. Albert Pujols' .416 OBP would be his worst since 2005, his .992 OPS would be the second worst of his career and his .332 "True Average," a catch-all seamhead measure adjusted to look like a batting average that purports to encompass total offensive value including baserunning and considering ballpark and pitching faced, would be the worst since his second season. Consequently, Price Albert is merely an MVP contender. Were he tearing it up as usual, he'd have lapped the field.
It's hard to argue with Ubaldo Jimenez as the MVP of the Spring and early Summer in the NL. The Rockies are winning 89% of his starts and 48% of their other games. Luck and good defensive support play may be on his dance card every start, but Jimenez is pitching for the same team as his mound mates. His contribution to that gap -- no matter how incomplete -- sounds award-worthy. For what it's worth, sabermetric measures suggest Jimenez has been a little less effective than Roy Halladay & Josh Johnson.
If you're like me, you prefer to weigh your apples and oranges separately. That would leave Ubaldo to the Cy Young competition and pit Pujols against Joey Votto, David Wright, et. al. That particular trio ranks 1-2-3 in value over replacement player, which considers position, but not defense. They are close enough in VORP to justify elevating Wright's excellent defense at third over Pujols' superb glovework on the corner and leaving Votto behind.
The picture is more muddled in the Junior Circuit. Outfielder Josh Hamilton (.346/.390/.625, 47.2 VORP), first baseters Miguel Cabrera (.346/.423/.651, 46.8 VORP) and Justin Morneau (.345/.437/.618, 45.5 VORP), and keystoner Robby Cano (.336/.389/.566, 42.5 VORP) are the main options. Cabrera is clearly the best hitter, but contributes the least with the leather. Cano is plainly swings the least lethal bat, but is most valuable facing the hitter. No one would have to justify a vote for Morneau or Hamilton either. It's worth accounting for offense-inflating ballparks in NY and Dallas, and recognizing that pitchers sing God Bless Comerica. What seems most likely, anyway, is that Cabrera maintains a stratospheric batting average while Hamilton suffers from mean-regression, making the choice a bit less Solomonic.
On to Cy Young. The above-referenced Jimenez is an obvious NL choice, though Johnson (1.70 ERA, 4.39K/BB), Halladay (2.19 ERA, 6.74 K/BB) and Adam Wainwright (2.11 ERA, 3.63 K/BB) could proudly hoist the trophy -- if there is one -- guilt free. Halladay offers more endurance and that level of accomplishment in a home stadium that plays to the grand slam crowd, though it must be nice never to have to face his mates Chase, Ryan, Jayson, Shane, Jimmy, et. al. Johnson pitches in front of an infield anchored -- and I do mean anchored -- by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. So pick your poison, or just wait for the rest of the season to play out.
Again in the AL, the view is more opaque. Cliff Lee (2.54 ERA, 15.17 K/BB, 10 of 13 Quality Starts) would be my history-making choice; he'd have to earn the award with one team in the first half and another post-ASB. Jon Lester (2.78 ERA, 2.82 K/BB, 13 of 18 with Fenway as home base), Felix Hernandez (2.88 ERA, 3.12 K/BB, 16 of 19) and others jostle for position at the front of the line.
Armando Gallaraga and Jim Leyland share the Gentleman Merit Badge for proving that you can have a perfect game even if you give up a hit. In the same vein, Jim Joyce wins the Don Zimmer Real Man Apology Award. Adrian Gonzalez earns the Snow White Trophy for playing with seven dwarfs in San Diego. The LeBron James Ribbon goes to the Cleveland Indians, who have saddened the people of Northeast Ohio by staying. The late George Steinbrenner takes the Warren Buffet plaque to eternity for plunking down $187,000 of his own schwag in an $8.7 mil play in 1974 for the Yankees, now worth $1.5 billion.
And then there's the the Idiot Award shared by all of us. Or at least all of us who thought the Reds were also-rans, the Padres were cellar-dwellers, the Mets were done, the Phillies were shoo-ins and the Mariners were contenders. And we'll earn it all over again unless we acknowledge that we might be right when it's all said and done. So let's just play the second half.
I can't wait until Thursday.
b
On to Cy Young. The above-referenced Jimenez is an obvious NL choice, though Johnson (1.70 ERA, 4.39K/BB), Halladay (2.19 ERA, 6.74 K/BB) and Adam Wainwright (2.11 ERA, 3.63 K/BB) could proudly hoist the trophy -- if there is one -- guilt free. Halladay offers more endurance and that level of accomplishment in a home stadium that plays to the grand slam crowd, though it must be nice never to have to face his mates Chase, Ryan, Jayson, Shane, Jimmy, et. al. Johnson pitches in front of an infield anchored -- and I do mean anchored -- by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. So pick your poison, or just wait for the rest of the season to play out.
Again in the AL, the view is more opaque. Cliff Lee (2.54 ERA, 15.17 K/BB, 10 of 13 Quality Starts) would be my history-making choice; he'd have to earn the award with one team in the first half and another post-ASB. Jon Lester (2.78 ERA, 2.82 K/BB, 13 of 18 with Fenway as home base), Felix Hernandez (2.88 ERA, 3.12 K/BB, 16 of 19) and others jostle for position at the front of the line.
Armando Gallaraga and Jim Leyland share the Gentleman Merit Badge for proving that you can have a perfect game even if you give up a hit. In the same vein, Jim Joyce wins the Don Zimmer Real Man Apology Award. Adrian Gonzalez earns the Snow White Trophy for playing with seven dwarfs in San Diego. The LeBron James Ribbon goes to the Cleveland Indians, who have saddened the people of Northeast Ohio by staying. The late George Steinbrenner takes the Warren Buffet plaque to eternity for plunking down $187,000 of his own schwag in an $8.7 mil play in 1974 for the Yankees, now worth $1.5 billion.
And then there's the the Idiot Award shared by all of us. Or at least all of us who thought the Reds were also-rans, the Padres were cellar-dwellers, the Mets were done, the Phillies were shoo-ins and the Mariners were contenders. And we'll earn it all over again unless we acknowledge that we might be right when it's all said and done. So let's just play the second half.
I can't wait until Thursday.
b
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