03 June 2010

Once Upon A Time: The Ken Grifffey Story


Two months late, the Ancient Mariner has retired, one of the six greatest center fielders of all-time, the fifth most prolific homer run hitter of all time and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Baseball fans were remembering Griffey today for his power, speed, arm, smile and for popularizing the southbound cap on a northbound head.

The narrative also includes this odd touch: Griffey is the first slugger of his era to retire without a hint of steroid scandal clinging to his hung-up uniform. It's apt then that he puts away the cleats after the kind of long, steady decline that used to characterize all the greats, including the two most recent giants ahead of him on the center fielder list -- Willie and Mickey.

Looking back on Junior's career, it's easy to forget that 630 home runs and a .284 BA are pale shadows of what we expected of him in the late '90s. Back then, visions of unprecedented greatness danced in our heads.

Remember the furor over the packaging of Junior to his hometown Reds for what seemed like a pile of seaweed -- Brett Tomko, Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Jake Meyer?  Since the trade, Cameron alone has been more than three times as valuable as Junior...and he's still accumulating value.

In fact, when we consider the spectacular career of Ken Griffey, Jr., we're really talking about his first stint with the Mariners -- which comprises the first half of his career -- and nothing else. I divided his career into its first 12 years, 1989-2000, which includes his first campaign with the Reds, and the second 11 seasons, 2001-2010. Behold the following:

In the first half of his career, Junior smoked 438 home runs. He was the fastest player ever to 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 dingers. In the second act, he coaxed 192 out of the park.

In the first half of his career, he slugged .500+ nine times and .600+ five times. In the second half, he slugged .500 four times and never came close to .600.

First half -- .380 on base percentage seven times. 
Second half -- none.

First half -- .300 batting average seven times.
Second half -- once.

First half -- 100 RBI seasons eight times.
Second half -- none

First half -- 100 run seasons six times.
Second half -- none

First half -- 173 SB.
Second half -- 11 SB

First half -- 10 Gold Gloves.
Second half -- none
During his first 12 seasons, the Kid was 66.4 wins better than a replacement player. By the age of 30 he had already made his Hall of Fame case and won a conviction. That's fortunate, because he earned just 8.1 more wins against a replacement player in the second half of his career.

None of this diminishes Griffey's accomplishments; in fact, it's partly the result of his prowess astonishingly early in his life. In the four years when his contemporaries were taking Sociology 101 and challenging Cal-Irvine for the Big West title, Junior was winning hearts and minds in the Pacific Northwest, hitting .300 three times and creaming 87 taters in the Bigs. 

So here's to Ken Griffey, Jr., an all-time great. Just not in this millenium.
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