Muddle of the Order

The great philosopher, my own personal self, once said that the real test of a team is not its best slugger, #1 starter or closer. It's the #7 hitter, the fourth starter and the utility infielder.

That's because every team has a couple of celestial bodies on the roster batting in the middle of the order. The really good teams' Murderers' Rows range up and down the lineup, and can send an average arm to the hill even on the fourth or fifth day.

This wisdom is vindicated by the team that's claimed my rooting interest since 2005, the Washington Gnats. (There is a team in Savannah, GA called the Sand Gnats. That isn't short for Gnationals, though.) DC currently sports the most potent 3-4-5 hitters in baseball.

Check it out:

Ryan Zimmerman   315/.415/.587 25.0 VORP

Adam Dunn   .284/.378/.565 20.7 VORP

Josh Willingham   .283/.429/.524 25.1 VORP

For comparison:

Alex Rodriguez .290/.361/.482 14.6 VORP

Mark Teixeira .226/.341/.391 2.4 VORP

Robinson Cano .376/.419/.616 40.0 VORP

Chase Utley .262/.382/.471 18.1 VORP

Ryan Howard .289/.348/.468 11.3 VORP

Jayson Werth .274/.357/.543 13.4 VORP

Remember that VORP (value over replacement player) measures the offensive contribution of a player at his position, adjusted for home park, relative to a guy available on the free agent wire.

Clearly, the D.C. Comics are not the equal of the World Champs or the runners up. That's because Washington has sent to the plate a pair of gentlemen (Willie Harris and Will Nieves) 100 times each who are batting 24 points shy of Sr. Mendoza. The two have combined to "contribute" minus-12.6 VORP, which means some barbed wire and duct tape off the scrap heap would be worth nearly 13 more runs than these two studmuffins. Add their space-taking to 257 at-bats-worth of third outfielder Nyjer Morgan (.253/.320/.342 -2.5 VORP) and you have the makings of a seriously bad lineup.

Of course, not withstanding His Royal Highness, The Rookie of the Year, King Stephen Onestart, the Nats' problem is much more a matter of defense than offense. For starters, Adam Dunn's defense is offense. More to the point, with a bullpen like that, it's not a save, it's a miracle. The aforementioned Washington Stimulus Package, (as many fans for his first game as for the next two nights combined, which were two of the best crowds there this year) 14 Ks into his career, is already 11 times as valuable as closer Matt Capps, and two wins better than failed starter Jason Marquis. 

If you're wondering how even the Almighty Stephen manages that in seven innings, he got help. Marquis and his 20.52 ERA managed to be worth one-and-a-half wins less than a replacement pitcher in just three starts comprising eight-and-a-third innings. That's Tony Hayward bad, and certainly nothing you'll find on the Yankee or Phillie rosters, or on the roster of any first division team.

To complete the record, let's see the seventh best-hitting regular on each team:

Curtis Granderson (NYY) .254/.338/.451  6.8 VORP

Carlos Ruiz (PHI)  .287/.417/.375  8.2 VORP

Adam Kennedy (WAS)  .243/.325/.338 3.6 VORP

So next time you wonder why a team that sports some big wood and live arms can't break .500, remember that you're not looking in the right place.

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