Psst. Wanna make a quick buck? Bet on tomorrow's Stupid Bowl.
I don't know who's going to win or by how much. In fact, that's the point: no one does. That's why you should make my bet.
Have you ever listened to football analysts? They are pigskin encyclopedias. They are strategic savants. They can tell you about dime packages and zone blitzes and all manner of esoterica. But they are no better at predicting game results than a blind monkey with a three-sided coin. They are not only notoriously bad predictors of which teams will win and by how much, but even of the general flow of games.
It's not their fault. In the NFL, past results are not necessarily indicative of future returns.
So why should the one game tomorrow be any different? The experts can parse this contest down to Reggie Bush's nose hairs, but then some third-string linebacker intercepts two passes. They can atomize the effects of Dwight Freeney's ankle injury, but then some guy you and I never heard of blocks a punt for a touchdown. The game, like the ball, is spheroidal and bounces in strange directions.
So the experts say these two prolific offenses will make the game a track meet and have bid the over/under to 57. I'm sure that's warranted based on the information available. But the only way that happens is if the experts are right, in spades, because that's a boatload of points.
So bet the under. In fact, put some money on under 49, which would yield two-to-one. I'm not guaranteeing you'll win, just that the odds favor you. The line is based on what the experts know, which is far less important than what they don't yet.
b
No comments:
Post a Comment