Between now and Opening Day, I'll be peeling the onion on some of the more intriguing teams of this coming season. First on the docket is last year's AL West champs, the Anaheim Angels.
Both baseball prognosticators and Las Vegas are down on the Angels, who lost their ace, their super utility guy and their former superstar to free agency. The departure of John Lackey, Chone Figgins and to a much smaller degree Vladimir Guerrero, will hurt, as will the perceived ascendancy of AL West rivals in Seattle and Arlington. I've seen several projection systems with the Angels at 75-84 wins, a 13-22 game tumble from 2009. I wonder if it's really looking that bleak in Orange County.
First, owner Arte Moreno didn't take those snubs lying down. Anaheim let Figgins seek his fortune elsewhere in part because it has another super utility player, Macier Itzuris, who doesn't possess Figgins's pop, but hits a respectable .359/.434 spotting at second, third and short. The Angels also have confidence -- perhaps unwarranted -- in young cornerman Brandon Wood, whose career .192/.222/.313 balance sheet in 224 at bats belies a strong minor league portfolio. Wood projects to hit for power but not get on base much, with below average defense at the hot corner.
Every team in baseball could use a John Lackey, but the Angels' cupboard is hardly bare, especially if mid-season pickup Scott Kazmir can find a different dance partner than "arm trouble." With the addition of Joel Pineiro to spell Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver and post-injury Ervin Santana, the Halos seem to have a competitive rotation. Off-season signee Fernando Rodney gives them a second closer behind Brian Fuentes, and with Scott Shields as set-up man, the bullpen looks like an asset too. Pitching is fickle, bullpens doubly so, but you'd rather start the season with this contingent than what anyone else in the division can trot out, wouldn't you?
Manager Mike Scoscia will write the names of some castoffs and retreads in his daily starting lineup, including Bobby Abreu in rightfield and Hideki Matsui at DH. Abreu was a pleasant surprise at a bargain price last year, while Matsui, wracked by injuries, was the reverse for the Yankees. Abreu's unlikely to repeat, but Matsui will likely make up the difference. First baseman Kendry Morales's breakout 2009 season in which he mashed .306/.355/.569 with 34 dingers is probably a bit rich for expectations in 2010, but Howie Kendrick (.334/.444) above average at the keystone, Erick Aybar (.353/.423) inhabiting the median at short, Wood a question mark at third and slugger Mike Napoli (.350/.492) on the honor roll behind the plate combine for an above average infield. Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Juan Riveira are a bit long in the tooth but otherwise sufficiently skilled in the outfield.
Many insiders dismiss the Angels as a 92-win team last year that outplayed their run scoring profile. Statheads have documented that the difference between runs scored and runs given up is a good predictor of a team's record. Teams whose records run way ahead of their profile tend to tail off, and vice versa. So, many experts are starting their analysis of the Angels on the premise that their true level of ability last year was 92 wins, and then subtracting from that because of the loss of Lackey, Figgins and Guerrero and the concomitant gains of Seattle and Texas.
Here are some reasons why the Angels, at least going into the season, look just as good to me as they did last year:
1. The possibility of a full year of Kazmir, plus Pineiro, plus Santana is healthy, plus Rodney.
2. Without a superstar, Anaheim appears weak to untrained eyes. But lacking a soft spot in the starting lineup is more valuable than you think. Not only does it provide no rest for the weary pitcher, it limits the pain if a key player gets hurt. (See Mets, NY; 2009.)
3. Mike Scoscia's teams have a habit of flummoxing the run scoring profile. Fugetaboudit.
4. Guerrero was addition by subtraction, as I documented last October.
5. Moreno has a big bank account, inflated by the out-migration of high-priced talent. He'll find some shiny jewel on the mid-season free-agent bazaar that Seattle can't afford.
Predicting baseball team records before the season is a fool's errand. But a smart betting person is taking the over on the Angels. They still look to me like the team to beat in the AL West.
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