The NL Cy Young

The yawning chasms that exist in the MVP races and the AL Cy Young are not present in the NL Cy race this year. A couple of quarks separate Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter in the inner Cy orbit, with Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain and Dan Haren in the outer ring.


You can crunch the digits 'til Niagara falls and still not see a red pubic hair of difference between the two. Lincecum pitched 33 more innings and struck out lots more batters. Carpenter surrendered fewer hits and walks per inning and posted an RA a half run superior. Lincecum pitches in a stingier stadium; Carpenter throws in front of a more deft defensive unit.

There's no question that Lincecum's total body of work is worth more than Carpenter's. Thirty-three frames of Cy-level hurling is a big bowl of ice cream. Even if Carpenter's season were a half slice of pizza superior to Lincecum's, it wouldn't close the gap.

The thing is, it wasn't. Even on a per-game basis, the ghost of Cy clings to the Giant. No doubt Carpenter was magnificent in '09, but it seems like there was an extra dollop of luck involved. Opponents batted an almost-impossible .272 on balls put into play against the Cardinals' comeback kid, and stranded an impressive 80% of runners. These numbers don't really compute and tend to be the result of pure kismet.

Carpenter's a better story, what with his two-year vanishing act, and he's close enough that I can't blame anyone for casting their ballot his way. But last year's best pitcher was this year's best pitcher, and don't bet against him being next year's best pitcher in the National League.
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