Safermetrics

We take this brief interlude in the baseball season to address some prevailing myths in that other sport involving baseball caps -- football. With the NFL season imminent, I'd like to address how football analysts and reporters whiff on their sport.

The geeks have taken their baseball computers and put them to work on the more complicated game of football, where player performance is vastly more interdependent. You might call this "Safermetrics," if you'd like to imagine that its practitioners are members of the Society of American Football Research (SAFR).

Have you ever heard pigskin analysts intone on the importance of a running game, because teams that run more, win more? They are wrong. They are stupid. They are ignorant. They might as well cover baseball.

The statheads have examined football games and found that teams that run the ball frequently in the first half actually lose more than they win. But once ahead, usually by airing it out, winning teams use the running game to wind down the clock and shorten the contest. Running doesn't cause winning; winning leads to running.

Do great running backs make their blockers look good or vice versa? The answer, according to the historical record, is that lines make running backs much more than the other way around. However, QB sacks are much more a function of the field general than of the line. Quarterbacks who assess situations adeptly and release the ball quickly avoid sacks. Those who don't, fall. Scrambling actually leads to more sacks, not fewer. Of course, it leads to more big gains too.

Speaking of big gains, the research says, eschew running backs who are feast-or-famine kinds of runners. Teams with those kinds of backs get big gains and then run out of downs. Research says slow and steady wins the race, because it moves the sticks steadily down the field and into the end zone. (No, this does not mean that Barry Sanders was a drain on Lion prospects. His gains were so spectacular and numerous, and his losses far enough between, that he was still among the best ever. He was the exception that proves the rule.)

Want to convert on third and short? Research says boring is better than exciting. Running it into the line is more often successful than throwing it. Who knew? This is even true if Peyton Manning is pitching and Marvin Harrison is catching.

The geeks say, don't skimp on your punter. Field position is much more important than people think. If you value the 27 outs you get in a baseball game above all else (as you should), then you can think of first downs as their equivalent. The shorter the field, the fewer first downs your team has to purchase at the first down store. So don't skimp on your kick returner either.

Fumbles shmumbles. Not really, but examining a player's fumbles lost misses half the point. That's because fumble recovery is nearly entirely a matter of which way the odd spheroid bounces. So a running back who coughs up the cookie 10 times and only loses two is likely to cause his team a lot more heartache going forward than a back who turns the ball over on three of his four oopsies.

You fantasy guys will like the next two. Backs who carry the ball 370 times or more in a season often crash the following year. Their yardage gained drops 35%, on average. There is a lesser penalty for guys with 310-369 rushes.

The prospects of high QB draft picks can be discerned almost entirely by two simple stats: games played and completion percentage. The more games they've played, the more likely the scouts are right about their ability. The more they complete passes, the better they are. Where they played, whom they played, how they played, and how many yards they accumulated are all largely irrelevent. Ryan Leaf college completion percentage? Fifty-four percent. Thhhhpppp. Look for at least 60%.

Finally, total yardage is the most overrated measure in football (besides rings, as if one player is responsible for that). A back who runs 350 times for 1,190 yards is not nearly as valuable as one who scampers 1,000 yards in 200 carries. The first guy (3.4 yards per carry) leaves your team in a third and long three situation. The other fella (5.0 yards per carry) made the pole holders walk 30 feet.

The same goes for QBs and, in fact, whole teams. Yards per play or per pass are much more important than total yards. Here's the baseball analogy: Who's more of a slugger, a guy who hits 30 HRs in 600 at bats or one who slugs 25 in 400 at bats?

The nerds responsible for this information call themselves Football Outsiders.

Memorize these research-supported facts and sprinkle the discussion with them next time you meet friend at the local sports bar. The chicks will dig your geekdom and the gentlemen will really enjoy being corrected constantly. I know it's always worked for me!
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