18 September 2009

Dead Horse Beating Zone

As the Twins and Tigers begin a weekend duel with an incipient division race in the balance, it's a good time to address the AL MVP race.

There is no AL MVP race. It is not a subject for rational debate among those who know what they are looking at. Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer is not just the best player in the Junior Circuit this year, he's knocking on history's door. Should he maintain his .374 batting average, it will go down as the highest ever by a backstop. Should he maintain his .441 OBP and .610 SA, the real debate will be whether Mauer or Mike Piazza owns the greatest offensive season produced out of a squat. It's worth noting that while Piazza couldn't throw out a slug running uphill through molasses, Mauer is an above-average defensive player.

The pages, speakers and screens have certainly featured homages to the candidacies of Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and others. Each has his strengths, but stands in Joe Mauer's shadow this year. (Future readers, if there are such things, may very well note that that sentence includes the names of four Hall of Famers.)

Rivera is the greatest of all time, has whiffed more than a batter an inning, sports a nifty 1.66 ERA and has blown all of one save. But even a season of perfect games isn't MVP material when you only pitch 60 innings, or four percent of your team's games. Let Rivera record three-inning saves, then we'll talk.

Teixeira has the pedigree that people who know nothing about baseball (i.e., sportswriters and yakkers) worship above all else: he collects RBIs for the league's best team. Beyond that, his .289/.378/.543 pales next to Mauer's. And for all his advantage as a home run hitter, Tex has outslugged Mauer 35-27 in 120 extra plate appearances. Throw in the yawning chasm between Mauer's accomplishments at the most difficult defensive position and Teixeira's at the easiest and, well, you're not a sportswriter, so you don't need it explained.

Jeter's .330/.399/.466, solid play at the next toughest defensive position, and 26 successful steals in 31 attempts, make him a solid second choice. Not a close second, but nothing to hang his 35-year-old head about. Relative to a replacement level shortstop, Jeter has added about six wins to his team. That's impressive, and double Teixeira's value versus a replacement level first baseman.

Mauer, he's an eight-and-a-half win bump relative to a replacement level catcher. Indeed, during the first month of the season while Mauer rehabbed from back surgery, fill-in Mike Redmond "hit" a whopping .238/.303/.292 with six extra base hits, not one of which was home run.

Now the elephant in the room. (Caution, dead horse beating zone.) Mauer is the MVP whether the Twins extinguish the Tigers and burst into a division title or fade like an old soldier and finish below .500. The eight and a half wins he's contributed are the same whether they are wins 69-77 or wins 84-92. Mauer's candidacy is unaffected by Minny's feckless pitching or limpid lineup. Similarly, Mark Teixeira can't be the MVP just because he plays with Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera.

Now, two words about the NL MVP race: Albert Pujols. Question, discussion, conclusion.
b

No comments: