Who's a better leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras, who batted .251 without power last year and stole 68 bases in 75 attempts, or Jason Giambi, who hit .247 with 32 homers and two steals and runs slower than a stocking?
Well, if you're looking for speed on the basepaths, Taveras is the easy choice. But if you are, the question is, why?
The purpose of a leadoff hitter is to get someone on base in front of the big hitters in the lineup. In that regard, Taveras reached base safely 161 times in 530 trips to the plate last year. The technical term for this is "blecch." To his credit, he turned many of his one-base safeties (singles, walks and HBP) into two-bases, but that hardly atones for a .308 on-base percentage.
Even after his 32 home runs, Giambi got himself on base 36 more times than Taveras in '08 and consumed fewer outs, giving the batters behind him more opportunities to create runs. Certainly he might clog the bases on occasion, and leading him off would reduce the number of multi-run homers he hits, but it's hard to see how that would offset 36 extra scoring opportunities.
Maybe because he could be better utilized in the middle of the lineup, Giambi isn't the better pick here, but if he's not, it's by a lot smaller margin than you thought when you heard the choices, right? And if not Giambi, then how about Conor Jackson of Arizona, who stole 10 bases, but reached base safely 48 more times than Taveras, consumed fewer outs and hit just 12 home runs? Or Yunel Escobar, a 10-homer guy who got caught in five of his seven steal attempts, but reached safely 41 more times and made fewer outs? Or two or three guys on Taveras' own team, the Rockies, like Ryan Spilborghs, whose .407 on base average came with six dingers in half a year's at-bats?
The point is, we have this imprint in our minds about what a leadoff hitter should look like -- speed without power. But the most important attribute of a leadoff hitter is his ability to get on base, which makes guys like Willy Taveras really poor choices. An outfielder with a .604 OPS should bat eighth -- if anywhere. Taveras, because of his stellar base stealing and defense, may merit a spot in the lineup, but not at the head of it.
The speed myth has been passed down into baseball legend, and it takes some hard thinking to recognize that although we've always done it that way, we can now see empirically that it's wrong.
Showing posts with label leadoff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label leadoff. Show all posts
27 February 2009
06 October 2008
The Sucking Vortex of Misconception
Broadcasting sports is hard work that can be done well by about one one-thousandth of one percent of those who think they can do it. Broadcasters have to talk for three hours, often extemporaneously about nothing. So it's not surprising or all that noteworthy when they say silly things.
That's the preface to the deconstruction of an incredibly silly comment on tonight's TBS broadcast of the Rays and White Sox. It's hysterical that people actually believe blatant fallacies like this one.
Harold Reynolds, whose analysis of the tactics and mechanics of the game I find insightful, mentioned that Jason Bartlett was like a second lead-off hitter in the nine hole. Since he bats before the #1 spot after the first inning, Reynolds noted, he can give you that leadoff quality in a 9-1-2 hitting arrangement.
Putting aside that Jason Bartlett made an out more than 67% of the time this year, which is detrimental to a team from a "leadoff" position, Reynolds' assertion is nonetheless patently absurd. If you need a "leadoff" hitter to bat before the #1 spot, why don't you need a leadoff hitter to bat before the #9 spot for those 8-9-1 hitting arrangements? And the same for the #7 spot and so on down the line?
The simple truth is that your best hitters bat early in the lineup because they get more at-bats that way. And since you want guys on base when your power hitters are at the plate, you put a couple of high on-base guys up before them. No matter how a lineup is constructed, a bad hitter must precede a good hitter in the lineup at some point, unless your team is the Lake Wobegone Ice Fishermen, where every player is above average.
Aside: many teams have fallen into the sucking vortex of misconception that the leadoff hitter should burn up the basepaths, so they bat a low-OBP speedster in the top spot. Those teams are giving away games. Jason Giambi and his 120 walks would be a better leadoff choice than Juan Pierre or even Alfonso Soriano. When ARod goes deep, who cares how many green lights it takes Giambi to cross the street?
Jason Bartlett bats ninth because Jason Bartlett hits like a girl, and Joe Maddon would like him to bat as rarely as possible while still staffing the important shortstop position.
That's the preface to the deconstruction of an incredibly silly comment on tonight's TBS broadcast of the Rays and White Sox. It's hysterical that people actually believe blatant fallacies like this one.
Harold Reynolds, whose analysis of the tactics and mechanics of the game I find insightful, mentioned that Jason Bartlett was like a second lead-off hitter in the nine hole. Since he bats before the #1 spot after the first inning, Reynolds noted, he can give you that leadoff quality in a 9-1-2 hitting arrangement.
Putting aside that Jason Bartlett made an out more than 67% of the time this year, which is detrimental to a team from a "leadoff" position, Reynolds' assertion is nonetheless patently absurd. If you need a "leadoff" hitter to bat before the #1 spot, why don't you need a leadoff hitter to bat before the #9 spot for those 8-9-1 hitting arrangements? And the same for the #7 spot and so on down the line?
The simple truth is that your best hitters bat early in the lineup because they get more at-bats that way. And since you want guys on base when your power hitters are at the plate, you put a couple of high on-base guys up before them. No matter how a lineup is constructed, a bad hitter must precede a good hitter in the lineup at some point, unless your team is the Lake Wobegone Ice Fishermen, where every player is above average.
Aside: many teams have fallen into the sucking vortex of misconception that the leadoff hitter should burn up the basepaths, so they bat a low-OBP speedster in the top spot. Those teams are giving away games. Jason Giambi and his 120 walks would be a better leadoff choice than Juan Pierre or even Alfonso Soriano. When ARod goes deep, who cares how many green lights it takes Giambi to cross the street?
Jason Bartlett bats ninth because Jason Bartlett hits like a girl, and Joe Maddon would like him to bat as rarely as possible while still staffing the important shortstop position.
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