Baseball Royalty: It Wasn't Really A Drought

The narrative this postseason -- one that satisfied my deep sense of sports fan justice -- was that the teams competing for the championship were, save for St. Louis and the Yankees, all seeking to end long periods wandering aimlessly in the desert. The Cubs are the cliche, but even the finalists from KC and NY were 30 and 29 years without ultimate victory.

It's so romantic that the story engulfs us. Little guy overachieves. Starving fan base finally quenched. Good guys victorious over the evil empires. It feels so good, World Series ratings spiked -- until games went past midnight Eastern.

But a little arithmetic demonstrates that it's all a mirage.

There are 15 teams in each league. On average, each team should win the pennant twice every 30 years.

There are two leagues. So on average, each team wins the World Series every other time they make the finals, or once every 30 years.

(The number of teams in each league has fluctuated a little over that time, with Milwaukee's move to the NL giving the Senior Circuit 16 of the 30 teams until Houston fled to the AL. That has slightly altered the odds.)

In the last 30 years, the Royals won two pennants and one championship. Perfectly average.

The Mets played in their third World Series -- a little above average -- but haven't won the title -- a little below.

If we look at the other teams in the playoffs, we get much the same thing. Toronto hasn't won a pennant in 22 years, but they hoisted two flags in two seasons before that. The Rangers and Astros are overdue for titles (none between them in nearly 100 combined years of play), but Texas has two pennants in the last five years and the Astros have one in the last 10.

What really marks these teams was how poorly most of them had competed during their drought periods. With four teams in each league earning a playoff spot each of the last 20 seasons (that number is now up to five, thanks to the play-in) a fan base could expect, on average, to see their home nine make the tournament eight times every 30 years. The Blue Jays and Royals hadn't earned a postseason berth since their last World Series; the Pirates hadn't had a winning season for two decades, and the others on this year's playoff roster have all likewise underachieved.

They've been victimized by the Cardinals and Bronx Bombers who have, combined, participated in the postseason 33 times in those 30 years. Hate the Red Sox (13 playoff runs) and Braves (17) too, though at least they had the grace to finish last in their division and third worst in the Majors, respectively, this year.

So, yay for the World Champion Royals, and for the NL champion Mets, and good luck to Houston, Texas, Toronto, Pittsburgh, the Dodgers and, godalmighty, the Cubs. Let's just temper our condolences for many of their fans.

Coupla Quick Notes

Vlad Guerrero just keeps getting more embarrassing. I just watched him hit a slow roller up the middle that Derek Jeter ran down on the outfield grass facing the wrong way, twist his body sideways and snap off a half-speed throw that Guerrero beat by the width of Joe Buck's objectivity. The play took four minutes and forty-eight seconds; an overweight ant running uphill through molasses could have beaten that one out by two strides.

Then Guerrero removes his batting helmet and puts on his bonehead, getting himself doubled off first when Nick Swisher caught a lollipop in shallow right and found the baserunner languidly trespassing in the second base hole. If Bobby Cox were the manager of the Angels he'd have walked to first base to yank his DH from the game.

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Remember that choker, Alex Rodriguez? He's batting .419 with five homers as I write this, including several key hits. How has he turned it around?

It's obvious: Kate Hudson. No wait, it's that he finally unburdened himself about steroid use. No, no, it's Derek Jeter's leadership. No wait...

No, wait. ARod is one of the 20 greatest players of all time. A guy like that is going to endure cold spells, as he has in other playoff appearances, but he's inevitably going to get hot for nine games (so far). This performance isn't surprising; in fact, it was inevitable.

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I'm not put off much by umpires blowing judgment calls. Law enforcement professionals know that eye witnesses are extraordinarily poor at correctly identifying crime scene details and that their testimony is almost completely unreliable. (That doesn't stop them from using eye witnesses when it's advantageous to them.) Any of us would blow our share of safe/out, fair/foul, ball/strike plays that are measured in millimeters at full speed.

But umpires not knowing the rules is unconscionable.

It's now happened twice in the ALCS -- and I can't help but notice that both times the break went to the Yankees. The Who's On Third routine in Game 5 wasn't ultimately determinative, but the Game 2 goof on a wild pitch that went into the stands cost LA the game and altered the series.

I don't think it's anything but a coincidence; still, how can I be sure?

Ultimately, we can talk all we want about replays, but before we do, how about employing umps who know the rules?

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The Fox crew has made a point of reminding us that the Yankees haven't been to the World Series since way back in 2003. Oh, the suffering!

I'm sure all the fans in Pittsburgh and Kansas City are sobbing in sympathy and reaching for their checkbooks to send a donation. The same in Seattle. And in Dallas. And Toronto, Baltimore, Minnesota, Oakland, Anaheim, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Queens and Chicago's North Side.
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