Menage a Trois and It Was Good for Everyone

The relatively new field of behavioral economics -- think Freakanomics -- has famously determined that gift-giving is an inefficient use of resources because we value what we receive less than our benefactors pay. To simplify the issue, other people generally don't know our preferences as well as we do.

How we value things is a fascinating topic that's served as fodder for innumerable doctoral theses and at least one Cosby show. It certainly loomed large in the recent blockbuster four-way trade that featured two Cy Young winners and a boatload of prospects. And -- Merry Christmas! -- this is an orgy in which everyone can be satisfied.

One thing we know for sure: relative to expectations, the Toronto Blue Jays are doing the jig over their prospect haul for the small sacrifice of a dismal summer wasting Roy Halladay's talent. In acquiring the Phils' untouchable, Kyle Drabek, they replace Halladay today with a potential Halladay long into the future. Drabek appears to be a year away, and even then, the Jays get to play in the low-price sandbox with him for six years.

Two other highly-regarded minor leaguers changed uniforms in the deal, a catcher and an outfielder whom Toronto flipped to Oakland for a third baseman. I know less about minor leaguers than Donald Trump knows about humility, but the experts give the thumbs-up on this trio. Go back two years and compare the empty basket Minnnesota scooped up from the Mets for the last year of Johan Santana's contract. Then remember that Santana was fresher and better-tasting than Halladay. (Santana was 29 and had added about 23 wins to the Twins compared to a replacement over the previous four years; Halladay is 33 and has been 19-20 wins better than a replacement.)

All of this is predicated on the premise that the BJs can't compete with New York, Boston and Tampa Bay in 2010, even with their ace, so they might as well build for the future. They particularly need to offload some onerous contracts, like Vernon Wells', whose salary -- at $126 million over seven years it's half the annual GDP of Guinea Bissau -- is appropriate only in the sense that he possesses all of Guinea Bissau's offensive firepower.

On the other hand, had Toronto known that Halladay would re-up for just three more years after his current year at $20 million per, they might have signed him and forgone all the agita. Halladay will be 37 when the smoke clears, so he'll have to negotiate his next contract just as his value begins tailing off. Why his agent didn't agitate for a fifth, sixth and seventh year will remain a mystery, unless D.B. Cooper comes forward with the answer.

Over on the banks of the Delaware, they've pulled off a coup by winning the Halladay sweepstakes, inking him to an affordable deal, and adding him to a power-packed lineup. Jettisoning Cliff Lee in order to clear space for Halladay and re-stock the farm is a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly given the lesser reviews of the trio that came back from Seattle. Still, the bottom line is this: the double NL champs improved one tick in '10 with Hallday instead of Lee (add in that Halladay is a northpaw in a rotation listing south), five ticks in '11 with Halladay instead of Drabek, et. al., and fewer ticks -- and maybe a few tocks -- as Halladay ages and the prospects mature.

There has been a lot of teeth-gnashing in Philly about why they couldn't reel in more for Cliff Lee than three lights of the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. Although Lee is signed for just one more year and seems poised to hit the free market, his team will get two picks before the second round if Lee bolts. This smacks of an arbitrary payroll ceiling and a severely limited time frame. Without Lee, the Phils are rock and paper; with him they would have been scissors too.

Whatever is the opposite of "collateral damage," that's the Mariners' role. Cliff Lee landed in their pocket, and all they had to do was clean out the lint. Sure Phillippe Aumont and the other prospects might turn out tres bien, but ...Cliff Lee. You make this move everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. Seattle makes another deal or two like this and they'll clinch the AL West by Memorial Day.

In sum, Toronto did better than expected, Philadelphia improved a hair and Seattle put itself back on the map. That's what economists call synergy.

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The Greatest Trade In Baseball History

The Seattle Mariners today made the greatest trade in baseball history by aquiring Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for Carlos Silva.

"Are you nuts?" says you. "Bradley is a brittle cancer with a $33 million price tag." You are correct, sir (or madam, as the case may be.) But Carlos Silva is to strikeouts what Tiger Woods is to fidelity. Carlos Silva is  a major league pitcher like I am a Mongolian loofah sponge. And Silva is selling for the low, low price of $23 million over two years, plus the $2 million sendoff required for him to slink into oblivion in 2012.

Last year, the 30-year-old righty took the mound for a grand total of eight games. This was a blessing for the Ms, because in the 30 innings he managed to stay upright, opposing hitters uncorked a .324 BA against him and crossed the plate 29 times. Silva earned every bit of his 8.60 ERA, striking out 10 batters, one fewer than he walked. He accomplished this feat in one of the best pitching parks in the AL.

Of course, that was an off-year for him. In '08, Silva limited opposing hitters to a .330 batting average and sported a snazzy 4-15, 6.46 line. In '06, Silva went 11-15, 5.94 for Minnesota and held the league to a .326 batting average. In other words, against Carlos Silva, a utility infielder is Albert Pujols.

It's easy to see why Carlos Silva can't retire major league hitters: he doesn't have major league stuff. Good pitchers whiff a batter an inning. Marginal pitchers fan six per nine. Over his eight-year career, Silva sent 3.78 per nine down on strikes. That stinks like a limburger fart.

In fact, it's worse than that. In his last 100 starts over four years, Silva has been seven losses worse than a replacement level pitcher --  a guy out of triple-A who's getting sent back as soon as Eric Bedard comes off the DL. That is fantasmagorically abysmal. That is Double-A demotion abysmal. But since Silva earns 28.75 times as much as the President of the United States, Mariners brass was loathe to kick him to the curb.

In other words, the Mariners, who receive $6 million of Tom Ricketts' money in the deal, got Carlos Silva to go away for $2 million. What a racket! Milton Bradley could trot out to left field, moon Bill Gates, take the collar, boot the winning hit, flip off the crowd, spew expletives to the media, tip over the post-game spread and spontaneously combust, all in his first game in Seattle and still qualify as a bargain compared to his trade dopleganger. The Mariners swapped Phyllis Diller for Lindsey Lohan. You do the math.

If, instead, Bradley plays 100 games before inevitably getting hurt and hits his lifetime average of .370/.450 while clogging up the DH spot, he'll be worth four more wins than Silva. That ain't chicken scratch for a team that is a bat or two from favorite status in the AL West.

All this is just the capper on a great off-season for Seattle. They were the beneficiaries of the Phils' sudden Cliff Lee allergy and they inked Chone Figgins away from archrival Los Angeles. That creates a formidable rotation fronted by Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Eric Bedard, if healthy. (Granted, that's like saying the Tigers have an outfield that includes Ty Cobb, if alive. But Bedard's due to hit the 150-inning mark one of these decades.) They add Figgins and Bradley to Ichiro and Franklin Guttierez, plus a little pop from Russ Branyan, and suddenly you have a team with great starters, the best defense in the league, and an offense that no longer conjures up images of -- Tinkerbell. Still, I think Seattle is a bopper away from beating the Angels and Rangers.

I'm not sure that big bopper is on the free agent market this year, but since Lee is only signed for one more season, M's GM Jack Zduriencik might be willing to empty the farm for Adrian Gonzalez, whom the Padres have offered for the right prospect haul. In any case, there could be some meaningful games this September at Safeco for the first time since 2001. If that's the case, Pacific Northwest denizens can thank The Greatest Trade In Baseball History for helping make it possible, even if Milton Bradley spends the 2010 season orbiting Pluto.
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