When 50 Equals 2

Finally, someone has assessed Gary Matthews, Jr. at his real value. The Mets swapped out a spare bullpen part for Little Sarge and will pay him $1 million/year for attempting to be their fourth outfielder/defensive replacement this year and next. If anything, they overpaid for a guy who peaked in 2006 and hasn't sniffed respectability since.

After Matthews broke out with the Rangers in '06, posting a wind-aided .313/.371/.495, 19-homer, good defense performance, the Angels rushed to ink him to a delusional five-year, $50 million contract. The deal is back-loaded so most of the cost comes now when Matthews is 35 and can hardly lift a bat, much less swing one.

In his three campaigns in Anaheim, Matthews stretched his game to a new level -- Triple-A -- by batting .248/.326/.379 and producing for the regretful Angels one loss worse than a random guy pulled off the MLB outfielder pile.That's the pile from which the Mets just claimed him.

Anaheim GM Tony Reagins may be dancing the jig that someone was willing to relieve him of this burden, even if $21.5 million of the $23.5 million still being transferred to Matthews checking account comes from Arte Moreno's World Series fund. But the Mets are desperate for outfield play, particularly because of the uncertainty around Carlos Beltran's return, and Matthews might have more success in the weaker league. In any case, he knows where to find his glove. A million bucks, in Major League Baseball these days, is clubhouse tip money, so the Mets have invested little. We'll see if it yields anything.

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Now THAT Is Baseball Analysis

For eight minutes and 19 seconds this afternoon, I listened to former Major Leaguer Eric Karros explain the baseball playoffs.

On how the Angels could beat the Yankees: "The Angels are not in awe of the Yankees. No one else can say that."

On why the Yankees might win it all: "The Yankees are more real this year. More relaxed. Expectations are the one thing that will slow them down. There's something to be said for that."

On how the Dodgers might overcome their weak finish to the season and make the World Series: "The Dodgers are like the infantry: they keep coming. Each guy plays like he's the 25th man. They're grinders, but they're superstars."

You see, it's this kind of insight that makes world class athletes the best analysts. They know more about the game than other people because they played it.

I'm not an athlete. That's why I have less informed ideas about these questions.

On how the Angels might beat the Yankees: Score more runs than NY. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go the Angels' way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor.

On why the Yankees might win it all: Well, they're the best team.

On how the Dodgers might beat the Phillies: Score more runs than Philadelphia. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go L.A.'s way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor. Oh, and throw lefties at that lineup. Howard and Utley are death on righthanders.

Look, these series are best-of-seven. Two hot pitchers can win it for you. One bad closer can lose it. The best team has an edge, but the best teams haven't even made the World Series in at least three years. So let's just sit back and enjoy the pennant races and leave the meaningless cliches for highly-compensated former athletes.
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Dodging A Headache

A sufficient number of baseball observers have scratched their heads publicly over Manny Ramirez's rejection of the Dodgers' two-year, $45 million offer, that I'll refrain from piling on.

Scott Boras has always been able to find a bigger sucker when it seemed his client had already pushed the market far beyond his value, so far be it for me to criticize him and his client for demuring at an offer that overstates his value, in my view.

Manny, now another year older, is not going to hit this year or next anywhere near as well as he did for half a season in L.A. It's just a fact of human physiology that he's more likely to get hurt, experience a decline in his skills and become a serious albatross on defense.

What really intrigues me is why the Dodgers even continue to discuss it with him. It's clear that no other club wants to adopt this particular can of worm larvae. Manny would make most sense on an AL club with dreams of contention and a DH need -- the Angels jump to mind -- and none of them has been reported ringing Boras' cell.

Manny's lack of enthusiasm for Spring Training is well-known. He may very well be stalling as much for a few extra vacation weeks as for a bigger contract. But Boras had better be careful lest some new competition enter the baseball labor market.

With Barry Bonds' trial now delayed past the end of the '09 season, any team willing to take on a migraine who can rake now has another option. Bonds probably can't play 150 games, as Manny can, and his personality issues affect clubhouse relationships, while Manny's only sho9rt-circuit management sleep patterns. But a team balking at paying $50 million over two years for Manny might be willing to drop $2 million for one year of Bonds.

I'm not proposing that the Dodgers head that way. Adding Manny, even at 90% of his average performance, would make them the favorite in the weak NL West. But I think they'd be crazy to add one thin dime to their offer.