Andre Dawson enters the Hall of Fame today without altering its accounts much in either direction. He is the quintessential borderline Hall of Famer.
The raw data puts Dawson in the Hall. He alone, save for spectacular company -- Barry Bonds and Willie Mays -- hit 400 homers and stole 300 bases. An all-around performer, he won eight Gold Gloves, an MVP, finished second twice, made eight All-Star games and earned Rookie of the Year in 1977. In addition, he played his first 11 seasons in the cavern in Montreal, which simultaneously dampened his batting exploits and his knee cartilage. Make no mistake, voters do the mental math on two full years' worth of injuries that drained some of his impact.
Peel the skin on his career and the flaws emerge. His .323 lifetime OBP is the worst by an outfielder in Cooperstown and demonstrates that whatever else his talents, The Hawk was below average at the single most important regular player skill -- avoiding outs. He compensated by slugging .500 just four times over 21 years and overall hit 19% better than the average player, adjusting for his ballpark. Because that compares him to second basemen and catchers as well as outfielders, it's not Hall-level impressive. By way of comparison, Jim Rice, whom I've argued was clearly not Hall quality, hit 28% better than average. Is Jim Edmonds a Hall of Famer? He's hit 32% better than average.
In addition, Dawson padded the balance sheet by hanging around long after his skills had departed. His last four years in Boston and Florida got him into the 400-homer club despite failing to contribute wins in either city.
Where Andre Dawson really makes his HoF case is on the basepaths and in the field. The scouts and stats agree that he was an exceptional centerfielder, though the objective data suggests he lost his mojo in right, where he actually spent more of his career. He also swiped 314 bases at a 74% rate, which adds 84 runs of value to his bottom line.
All of which puts Dawson on the teeter-totter for me, a better laureate than Jim Rice, worse than Tim Raines, who hit significantly better and added 500 runs on the base paths. (To be fair, he wasn't in the same stratosphere as Dawson defensively.) But the writers gave him their imprimatur, so he's a Hall of Famer and no one, not even some amateur stat geek who couldn't hit a 40 mph curve ball, can take that away from him. And for all the electrons spilled over his admission, it doesn't add or detract from the Hall of Fame much at all.
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