Spring Training brings questions about the upcoming baseball season. According to the projections, the division races will have less intrigue than a four-pitch intentional walk; the Wild Cards are a tossup. We'll see...
Q. Who is going to challenge the Indians this year?
A. Andrew Jackson? I don't see anyone in the AL Central giving them much of a tussle, though, of course, you never know. The White Sox are rebuilding and the Twins are not yet rebuilt. The Royals are degrading and the Tigers would have sold off if they could get something for their expensive old stars. I suppose KC could put things together and make a respectable showing, but I don't see anyone challenging the Indians for first place.
Q. Which team that looks bad going into the season would you be least surprised to see contend?
A. The Diamondbacks have so many good pieces and now have a front office that could pass a competency test. With the return of A.J. Pollack and an unexpected arm or two they could enter the Wild Card mix.
On the other side, the Tigers still have some big bats and Justin Verlander. Wouldn't that be rich if Detroit got its World Champs as soon as Mike Illitch finally dies?
Q. Now that we have so much more information, is there anything more definitive we can say about clutch hitting?
A. The same thing discerning people were saying before: psychology matters in baseball, as in all aspects of life, but you would be surprised how rare true "clutch" performance really is. The vast majority of "clutch" plays are just good plays that happened to come at opportune times. All the statistical evidence, and now all the atomically-measured Statcast data, demonstrates that more and more clearly.
Q. Eric Thames was a washout in the Majors and then went to Korea and became Babe Ruth. What are his prospects now that he's back in MLB?
A. Everyone is very curious to see. Experience tells us that guys who go elsewhere and figure it out (e.g., Cecil Fielder, Ryan Vogelsong) return having figured it out, just as guys in the Majors who suddenly figure it out (e.g., David Ortiz, Jose Bautista) do. The problem with Thames is that his window is narrow because he's 30 and he really can't play the field. It wouldn't surprise me if he puts together two or three power-hitting seasons before tailing off and losing any value.
Q. Whither Rick Porciello, who won 22 games for Boston last year?
A. If he's a viable #3 for 30 starts this season the Sox should be grateful. He's not repeating last year.
Q. How damaging is the David Price injury?
A. Well, that depends on how damaging it is. If he's cooked, that brings Boston back to the AL East pack. If his first start is delayed and he has to monitor innings, that will be fine. Teams have to assume they won't get a full season out of any starter. On average, a team uses eight starting pitchers.
Q. Are we in another golden age of shortstops?
A. No question. Manny Machado, Xander Bogarts, Addison Russell, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Andrelton Simmons, Javier Baez, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Dansby Swanson, etc. And second base is brimming as well.
Q. Are the Mets crazy for sitting Conforto in favor of Jay Bruce?
A. Insane. But these things have a way of working themselves out.
Q. I hear there is a new Statcast wins against replacement measure. What's that all about?
A. Not yet, but MLB's Statcast does provide a computational version of what the A's were doing in the 90s by charting batted balls.
Here's how it works: if a batter hits a screaming liner in the gap and the center fielder snags it, the pitcher records and out and the batter absorbs a futile at bat. Statcast can tell us that 75% of the time that would have been a double, and charges the pitcher with 3/4 of a double and credits the batter with the same. So instead of measuring the results of plays it measures what "should have" happened.
Over the course of a season, luck, the effects of defense and park effects are stripped out of a player's performance, not just on average but specific to him. Additionally, the same calculations will apply to their defense, which would be an immense upgrade, compared to the squooshy defense metrics we have now. Eventually this could be a major upgrade.
Q. Why doesn't anyone give the Yankees any love.
A. They are reserving it for the next decade, when the Bombers will be a force. For now, they're short on rotation arms.
Q. Did you see that Bud Selig said in an interview that Marvin Miller should be in the Hall of Fame?
A. And he said that Donald Trump is a dope. Tell me something that's not obvious.
Q. But Selig never endorsed Miller for the HOF before.
A. It would be unseemly for the Commissioner to do that. But Bud's just an ordinary citizen now. And it's not like he's sticking his neck out: Marvin Miller is one of the five most influential people in baseball history.
Q. What do you see for Jason Heyward this year?
A. If we knew the answers to questions like that baseball wouldn't be as much fun. That said, it's hard to believe Heyward won't hit for both a higher average and more power than he did last year.
Q. If the Braves are faltering by the trade deadline, will they unload all those free agent pickups they signed?
A. If they're faltering, it's unlikely the free agent pickups are performing all that well. What are they going to get for a mediocre 42-year-old pitcher on a one-year deal?
Q. Who is this year's surprise breakout?
A. If I told you that, it wouldn't be a surprise.
Keep those cards and letters coming!
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