A Twin Killing

You might recall, back months and months ago when the NBA playoffs were in their second round; or third, I can't keep track; Memphis led Golden State two games to one and supposedly knowledgeable sports analysts began their Chicken Little dance around the Warriors.

Steph Curry & crew proceeded to win the next three games, take the series in six and earn their way to the league championship for the first time in 40 years.

It's easy to do the same thing with the long baseball season. Who could blame a St. Paul resident for thinking that the first 60 games of the season are representative of something for their beloved Twins.

Alas, there is nothing in the record, besides 33 wins and 25 losses, to suggest the Twins are even average. A peak behind the curtain, the kind of thing we couldn't do in the halcyon days before advanced metrics, suggests Minnesota has taken a long ride on a carpet of smoke, mirrors and just plain luck.

When you're among the best teams in the league, you tend to be particularly adept at some element of the game, or generally adept at all elements. The Twins are neither. Here is their offense:

• middle of the pack in batting average
• fifth worst in OBP
• third worst in slugging
• with the fourth fewest home runs and
• fourth worst in steals and caught stealing

The Twins lead all but three AL offenses with 12 triples, but I doubt that's the reason that they've scored the fifth most runs.

Huh?

Yes, a pretty substandard offense has scored more runs than 10 of the other 14 teams. How? Good timing -- what the geezers in the retirement home call "clutch hitting," bless their hearts. But if clutch hitting is hardly a thing among individual players, it's certainly a passing wind at the team level.  The sequencing of Twins hits have produced runs so far. Expect karma to start making amends in Minneapolis right soon.

The formula is similar on the defensive end. Pitchers have allowed the fewest walks in the league, but registered the fewest strikeouts and allowed the most hits. They keep the ball in the park reasonably well (sixth out of 15), and the result is the eighth best ERA, which is dead center for the league, about what you'd expect.

So the pitching isn't carrying them.

On defense, Baseball Reference rates the Twins just slightly below average. Baseball Prospectus isn't that sanguine. Either way, the gloves haven't transformed weak pitching into shutouts.

Is there some magic formula at Target Field? The team has prevailed in one-run games, but not enough to dress a talent-challenged team in Wild Card clothes. Closer Glen Perkins has turned out the lights consistently (five runs in 27 innings and a league-leading 21 saves) but the rest of the pen is a mish-mash that fails to scream "secret sauce."

In short, the Twins are nothing special, despite the special status in the standings. Those with deadlines and column-inches to fill will credit manager Paul Molitor for teaching his charges "how to win" and settling them down after a poor start. But real people know that managers, even great managers, even Hall of Fame former players, even really smart people with spectacular emotional IQs, can't turn the 2015 Twins into a pennant contender.

Reporters can't interview luck, can't describe it, and won't be received well in the clubhouse if they refuse to credit their sources with the good results those sources have produced. But luck is the reason Minnesota began the season 30-19 and luck is fickle.

The fall won't be pretty because, like fire, luck is a great servant but a terrible master.