It's Hard to Find a Stupid GM

While there are plenty of baseball fans and writers allergic to the new ideas of the sabermetric movement, there aren't any general managers left in that camp. They can't afford to be; they'll get their clocks cleaned by their more sophisticated competitors.

That one fact explains why Nelson Cruz spit the bit by declining the Rangers' qualifying $14.1 million offer to enter the free agent sweepstakes.

Cruz was banking on at least one GM salivating over his big bat (123 OPS+, primarily because he slugs 34 homers per 162 games) and inking him to a fat deal. 

He may instead be firing his agent. Cruz waited out the market until pitchers and catchers reported and settled on a one-year, $8 million pact that will allow Cruz to attempt a reset on his reputation following a 50-game PED suspension.

But that's not what cost Cruz his lottery ticket. Smart brass did. 

General managers are no longer chipmunks reacting to every shiny bauble. All 32 GMs looked beyond the home runs and saw a pile of mediocrity. Cruz is 33 and won't be younger next year. He makes a lot of outs. (OBP under .330 each of last three years.) He has batted in a friendly home park outside Dallas. He's a DH in right field clothing. Signing him requires the loss of a first-round draft pick.

Not many clubs are lacking in immobile semi-slugging defensive liabilities, and if they are, they can get 90% of Cruz's value for half the cost and keep their draft picks while they're at it. So Nelson Cruz's market value, which he and his agent pegged at somewhere above $14.1 million, turned out to be $8 million, and only then with an asterisk.

The Orioles could sign Cruz only because three conditions existed simultaneously. First, they had a help wanted sign on the DH slot. Second, Camden Yards, like The Ballpark, inflates offensive stats, so the O's could offer Cruz a chance at rehabilitation under sympathetic conditions.

Maybe most importantly, Baltimore already spent its first round pick on Ubaldo Jimenez, meaning the pricetag on a Cruz singing dropped to a #2 pick. That's a significant difference that allowed them to offer Cruz more than other teams could. 

Nelson Cruz is out $6.1 million because teams no longer see a player who batted .266 with 27 homers and 76 RBI in just 109 games. They see a defensive albatross worth two wins-a-year and headed in the wrong direction. 

Perhaps Cruz should make his case to a sabermetric-averse baseball writer. He'd have a chance at three years/$40 million with them.