As we approach the end of the year, our national impolitic faces the specter of punitive cuts in everything from social services to defense about which economists aren't in unanimous agreement of jackknifing us back into recession only because some modeling suggests depression instead.
Faced with this, left-wing idealouges and right-wing stonewallers in Congress have reached consensus on the following: they are prepared to compromise as long as the other side agrees to their stipulations. The result is an economic ship in stormy seas with no one at the helm.
Could the Yankees be on the same collision course? The team has anchored itself to some long-term contracts that figure to get right ugly with the passage of time.
Coming off an MVP quality season in 2007, when he punished the American League with 54 homers, 24 steals and a .422 OBP, Alex Rodriguez tore up the most egregious contract in MLB history in search of even more. Having already taken $200 million of Tom Hicks' money, ARod coaxed the Yankees into committing $275 million of George Steinbrenner's over the following 10 years.
Although it seemed unlikely that Rodriguez could find another partner willing to go steady for a decade at anywhere near that rate, or a franchise dumb enough to commit while being smart enough to contend, the Yankees eyed their below-replacement-level replacements at third base and blinked. If the Treasury was being raided while they danced, at least they got the prettiest girl at the party.
Except age was getting into Alex's system just as the muscle-building agents were cycling out. In '08 and '09, at age 31 and 32, ARod ceased to be ARodian, but simply great at the plate and missed 24 and 38 games for the first time in his career. In the three years since, he's averaged 119 games, a .350 OBP and declining range at third base, all for $92 million.
And it gets worse. ARod will make $114 million from now, age 37, until age 42, during which projections suggest he'll contribute around three wins above a replacement for New York. Those projections are based on him playing roughly full-time during that stint, which seems only slightly more likely than his joining the priesthood.
Particularly for a company awash in cash, that's a waste of money, not a fiscal cliff. But a declining Mark Teixeira presents the same dilemma. Coming off 54 magical games with Anaheim in '08, during which Tex hit.358/449/.632, Brian Cashman inked what appeared to be an eminently sensible eight-year, $180 million deal with the steady first baseman.
Since then, Teixeira has gone steadily downhill. Having never posted an OBP below .370 when he donned the pinstripes, he's declined every years since, down to .332 this past season. Teixeira enters his age 33 season with real question marks, but none of them are attached to a contract that obligates the Steinbrenners to pay him $90 million over the next four years.
Pile on the $119 owed to CC Sabathia through 2017 and impending free agency for Curtis Granderson and most notably Robinson Cano and even the Yankees may be approaching their debt ceiling. Should a couple of these players hit the wall while under contract, the roster could get old, average and awfully expensive simultaneously.
Obviously Yankees, Inc. is better positioned to withstand such financial hardships better than are the Kansas City Royals, or the Republic of Congo, for that matter. But Hank and Hal have whinnied about sliding back under the $189 million luxury tax threshold, of which the five players above will siphon off more than $100 million regardless of whether they're roster-worthy.
If you love baseball you'll be rooting for it all to come tumbling down simultaneously. My heart goes out to the metro area in the wake of Sandy (and so did some of my money), but a Yankee implosion is the kind of natural disaster that the rest of the country can enjoy and even benefit from. A few years of AL East dominance by Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto would be a nice change of pace.
Kind of like a sensible compromise in Washington that reduces deficits without slowing economic growth. Don't hold your breath for that one.
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