Nothing, it seems, is certain but death, taxes and the Phillies winning the 2011 NL East. The four-time defending NL East champs sport an historic starting rotation and some of the best hitters in the senior circuit. They'll spend the summer feasting on the Nationals, Marlins and Mets and the fall battling baseball's royalty in seven-game bursts.
Except, as the great philosopher Quick Draw McGraw often noted, "now just hold on thar one cotton-pickin' minute, Baba Looey!" The 2012 Phils are threatening to drastically under-perform on one side of the ball, leaving the ascendant Braves ample opportunity to end the run in the city of sibling affection.
You doubt that Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels will perform anything less than spectacularly? Neither do I, though there's nowhere to go but down with this corps, relative to expectations. It truly is a world class quartet, and if anything goes awry, like someone's ulnar collateral ligament, Joe Blanton is a doozy of a back-up plan.
On the other hand, if Southeastern PA isn't concerned about the lineup, it isn't paying attention. With names like Howard, Utley, Rollins and Victorino, it's easy to become complacent about the Phillies' hitting woes. Take a closer look though, and you'll see how this offense could stink like New Jersey without much going terribly wrong.
First, the team's getting old, with an average age this year over 32. Utley and Rollins missed a chunk of 2010 and Utley is hobbling again even before he's broken a sweat. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Phillies; hitting for power and average and delivering standout defense at a position where a replacement can be counted on for little more than an occasional bloop single. By far the team's best player (he was the second most productive hitter last year despite missing 150 plate appearances), Utley's health is a critical concern.
Rollins, not so much. The mis-cast MVP in 2007, Rollins has steadily declined since, losing 200 points of OPS while battling age and injuries. The team leader and spark plug may not have much spark left, and he also plays a position thin in quality replacements.
The third Musketeer is Ryan Howard, who was either slowed by injuries last year or has, at age 31 and 235 pounds, begun his slow descent. Howard slugged 31 home runs, which is ordinarily tremendous, except when that is your signature skill, and you'd been averaging 50-a-year over the past five seasons. If he repeats that, or declines further, the Phillies are going to be a a nuclear plant short in the power department.
Beyond them the news is more worrisome. Dominic Brown has shown no signs that he can replace any part of Jason Werth's game in right field and Carlos Ruiz's chances of repeating his anomalous .302/.400/.447 season behind the plate are somewhere between slim and none, with the mean listing heavily towards none. Raul Ibanez's utility as a 39-year-old might be in a platoon with John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Ben Francisco. The latter can pop a longball episodically and the former can swipe a base if someone gets on for him, but that's not much production from a corner outfield position.
Placido Polanco at third and the Flyin' Hawaiian in center are both good and reliable players with meaty defensive chops, though if Polanco fails to hit .290 his offensive contribution evaporates. In any case, both are complementary parts, not stars. A Phillie squad left to rely on those two is swimming in shark-infested waters. And with a lineup that still lists portside, the Phils remain vulnerable to southpaws.
Of course, the starters could bail out the offense and Ruben Amaro could flip Joe Blanton for a shiny bauble to offset the woes of Utley or Rollins or whoever. But they may be busy bailing out the bullpen, which could run the gamut from shutdown to incendiary to...Bastardo.
You put it all together and the Phils look less like locks than lox, and there's a team in Atlanta just itching to buy the cream cheese (not Philadelphia brand.) I've still got the ponies as favorites -- that rotation demands it -- but Charlie Manual will earn the hosannas this season if he can keep the offense on track and the team atop the standings...again.
b
First, the team's getting old, with an average age this year over 32. Utley and Rollins missed a chunk of 2010 and Utley is hobbling again even before he's broken a sweat. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Phillies; hitting for power and average and delivering standout defense at a position where a replacement can be counted on for little more than an occasional bloop single. By far the team's best player (he was the second most productive hitter last year despite missing 150 plate appearances), Utley's health is a critical concern.
Rollins, not so much. The mis-cast MVP in 2007, Rollins has steadily declined since, losing 200 points of OPS while battling age and injuries. The team leader and spark plug may not have much spark left, and he also plays a position thin in quality replacements.
The third Musketeer is Ryan Howard, who was either slowed by injuries last year or has, at age 31 and 235 pounds, begun his slow descent. Howard slugged 31 home runs, which is ordinarily tremendous, except when that is your signature skill, and you'd been averaging 50-a-year over the past five seasons. If he repeats that, or declines further, the Phillies are going to be a a nuclear plant short in the power department.
Beyond them the news is more worrisome. Dominic Brown has shown no signs that he can replace any part of Jason Werth's game in right field and Carlos Ruiz's chances of repeating his anomalous .302/.400/.447 season behind the plate are somewhere between slim and none, with the mean listing heavily towards none. Raul Ibanez's utility as a 39-year-old might be in a platoon with John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Ben Francisco. The latter can pop a longball episodically and the former can swipe a base if someone gets on for him, but that's not much production from a corner outfield position.
Placido Polanco at third and the Flyin' Hawaiian in center are both good and reliable players with meaty defensive chops, though if Polanco fails to hit .290 his offensive contribution evaporates. In any case, both are complementary parts, not stars. A Phillie squad left to rely on those two is swimming in shark-infested waters. And with a lineup that still lists portside, the Phils remain vulnerable to southpaws.
Of course, the starters could bail out the offense and Ruben Amaro could flip Joe Blanton for a shiny bauble to offset the woes of Utley or Rollins or whoever. But they may be busy bailing out the bullpen, which could run the gamut from shutdown to incendiary to...Bastardo.
You put it all together and the Phils look less like locks than lox, and there's a team in Atlanta just itching to buy the cream cheese (not Philadelphia brand.) I've still got the ponies as favorites -- that rotation demands it -- but Charlie Manual will earn the hosannas this season if he can keep the offense on track and the team atop the standings...again.
b
3 comments:
So you KNEW this comment was coming, right? And while I can't argue with some of the doubt expressed I can say with complete confidence that there's NO WAY the Phillies will be sitting at home in Oct 2011.
Howard was hurt at his best time of the year last season and that made a huge difference.
Rollins was also hurt much of the time. In fact, 2010 was a year of injury for almost the entire team (only Werth of all the starters avoided the DL) and yet they STILL won more games than any other team.
2011 will be no different, oh yeah- except now they have the best rotation in recent (or longer) memory.
Howard will produce. Rollins will get back to solid form, Utley - well, Utley will be back by June - just gotta keep saying it. Poly will be solid and get on base for Howard. Victorino will fly around the bases and Chooch will be Mr. Clutch once again.
Ibañez is a nice guy, but yeah, he will not be a rock by any means, but Francisco and Gload will platoon well in right.
Madson will be a mad dog and Contreras will come in from time to time and show how the old Cuban dog can still bite. Lidge... it won't be '08 for him, but then it won't be '09 (and what happened in '09 - October baseball).
Atlanta will make it interesting but no way they pull it out.
No, the Phillies will be the only team to be playing October baseball the last 5 years in a row.
And once they get there... well you can bet your ass that rotation is gonna scare the hell outta anyone they face.
This is our time. Despite the worst closer in baseball in '09 and the injury laden "off" year in 2010 they still made it work. And it will again, have Phaith!
PAZ
ps - The Giants are gonna fall to a surging Rockies in the West.
...and that's the beauty of baseball: we won't know until September. Play ball!
... and THAT'S how we're gonna get it done. A string of singles to walk off in the 9th. Drama in Philly!
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