Sacrificing...the Game

If the Cardinals miss out on the playoffs by one game, they can look back on August 14th and smack themselves in the head. On that date, they dropped a 3-2 decision to the scuffling Cubs for which they have one bad decision to blame.

Up by that score in the ninth, the overpaid Second City contingent worked its special roar-from-ahead magic. On a leadoff grounder to third, Aramis Ramirez fired the ball into Illinois, allowing pinch hitter Aaron Miles to occupy second base.

At this point, with a runner on second and none out, an average team with average offensive contributors can be expected to score 1.165 runs, with the baserunner scoring 63% of the time. But the next batter, Brendan Ryan, is no average hitter. He brings a lifetime .318 OBP to the plate, tilted heavily towards a .277 OBP this year. So the Cardinals' managerial staff -- Tony LaRussa is serving a suspension -- orders up a bunt.

If Ryan successfully executes the bunt, he trades one of the team's three remaining outs for an opportunity to move Miles within 90 feet of the plate and a tie game. That would increase the odds of scoring to by two percentage points, but reduce the likelihood that any more runs score by a similar margin. Since the Cards can't win until they tie, and they are more likely to win than lose in extra innings, they're willing to trade the possibility of a second run scoring for more certainty about recording the first run.

Still with me?

There's one more factor to consider. Anyone with Internet access can easily discern that Brendan Ryan is a below-average Major League hitter. But unless you're a die-hard Redbird fan, you probably can't parse out his bunting abilities. His hitting coach, on the other hand, should have known exactly how skilled Ryan is with the sacrifice, and never allowed him to square away.

Ryan never laid down a bunt. He laid two of them up. The first one popped foul along the first base line, in and out of Koyie Hill's glove. Hill caught the second one in front of the plate. Watching Ryan, it was easy to see why his attempts went awry. On both plays, he tipped the bat up, leading inevitably to an airborne result. In other words, Brendan Ryan is as adept at the sacrifice as a Hummer driver.

The game ended with Miles still anchored to second and Albert Pujols waiting for his turn on deck. Had the squandered out been put to more productive use, Prince Albert might have been taking his licks with the run already in, or awaiting deliverance from the best player on Earth.

Bunting is a strategy, and like any strategy, we can assess exactly when the odds favor it. Using both scouting and stats in this case should have alerted the coaches against bunting and into some other tactic, like attempting to hit to the right side, or pinch hitting for the shortstop. The wrong decision cost St. Louis the game.

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