Have you ever gone shopping for an item that you need and look forward to purchasing, only to discover that the available options at the moment aren't quite what you had in mind? Your two choices are to buy the best option available at the moment to quench your immediate desire, or to wait for what you really want at an advantageous price.
That's what awaits most teams in this year's free agency market. Teams trolling for top talent should pull up their nets and wait to cast next year.
Look at the biggest names on the free agent wire. Matt Holliday, Chone Figgins, Vladimir Guerrero, Jermaine Dye, Pedro Martinez, Bengi Molina, Miguel Tejada, Jasopn Bay. Presumably some combination of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will be on the market too.
The natural inclination is to pay top dollar for the best free agent on the market, but that would be a mistake this year. Forking over Yankee-level bucks for Holliday's 263 at bats in a Redbird uniform would be the equivalent of chasing a hot stock. It would be an exercise in wishful thinking to expect him to produce a 1.023 OPS ever again.
Beyond that, who's on the list? Role players and has-beens. Don't get me wrong: Molina and Figgins are really good role players. Pedro and Vlad are really weres. Pick them up for a specific purpose, but don't bust the bank for them.Jason Bay is a delicious treat; winning his hand may require an unwarranted entree price.
The free agent wire hasn't cornered the market on available players, of course. Roy Halladay, just to name one game changer, can be had in a trade. You'd roll out kegs of coin for him, depending on what the Blue Jays demand in return. Halladay and his six or seven wins above a replacement pitcher could be the difference between missing the playoffs and winning a world championship for teams on the cusp.
But teams should be wary of that too. The case of the Yankees is instructive. New York passed -- the Yankees can have almost any player they want, so nearly anytime they fail to woo a free agent or consummate a trade they can be said to be passing on the deal -- on a swap with the Twins for Johan Santana. No doubt, the best pitcher in baseball would have gotten the Bombers into the playoffs last year, but the price of Phil Hughes and other young players might have cost New York its title this year and beyond.
Instead, the team horded its cash and got the wider, less delicate version of Santana in CC Sabathia. It just required a little patience. Imagine that -- the Yankees winning with patience.
The corollary to all this is that some great parts will be on the market this year, potentially at reasonable prices if teams are deft. Nick Johnson, for example, could be a nice complementary player shuttled between first and DH, a defensive replacement and pinch hitter who can take a walk when you need it. But paying him as if he'll ever play a full season is folly. Joel Pineiro might be a nice #4 starter if a team can get him at #4 starter cost, but last year's 3.49 ERA is more likely fluke than trend.
The smart teams know all this and are preparing to sign no one if the market goes bonkers again. But someone will go all Alex Rios/VernonWells/Gary Matthews Jr. and empty the club's pockets for a mediocre player following one anamolous year. Hope it's not your team.
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