The Next 300-Game Winner Will Be...

"People tell me tomorrow's another day. No, today is another day. We don't know what tomorrow is going to be, and by the time we find out, it will be today." -- George Carlin

After Early Winn limped to his 300th career pitching namesake at the end of 1963, sportswriters began touting him as the "Last of the 300-Game Winners." Indeed, it took 19 years for Gaylord Perry to next cross that barrier. No one in 1963 would have identified Perry as the next candidate: at that point he had amassed a 4-7 lifetime record and a 4.66 ERA.

The 300-win refrain has been sung repeatedly since, most recently now. In the wake of Randy Johnson's 300th big unit last week, sports websites were buzzing with the chorus "no one will do it again." But someone pitching today will, I promise.

Certainly no one is in the pipeline. Only eight Major League hurlers are even halfway to the mark, and not one of them is a reasonable candidate. They include the likes of Jamie Moyer, Pedro Martinez and Tim Wakefield.

But Randy Johnson wasn't much of a candidate himself until pretty recently. The giant lefty didn't record his first win until he was 25 and was still 196 Ws short of 300 at age 32, with a creaky back on the resume to boot. What we've learned about great players is that, Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas not withstanding, it's how you finish much more than how you start. And we don't know how guys will finish until we get there, hence the Carlin quote at the top.

Someone pitching today is going to have a revival in his career's second act. Johan Santana, Jake Peavey and Roy Halladay are all longer on talent than on wins, but that could change. Any of them could remain productive through their 25th high school reunion and march slowly to that milestone. Or some youngin' who has yet to distinguish himself, say a Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer or Felix Hernandez, could find a groove in the 2010's.

Conditions are certainly more difficult than they were when Johnson first flung the horsehide 100 mph past some startled batter. Starters now record decisions in just 69% of their starts, down 12% (not 12 percentage points) since 1972, a loss of 47 decisions in 500 career starts. But the last four entries into the august 300-club -- Johnson, Glavine, Maddux and Clemens -- have all pitched the majority of their careers under similar conditions. So it's possible, even if present usage patterns persist.

By the time that day inevitably arrives, advanced baseball analysis could be the accepted norm. We'll understand the relative irrelevance of pitching wins -- not to mention saves, RBIs and batting average -- and focus on more revealing stats that better correlate with success. At that time, the big question about the next 300-game winner may not be "who?" but "who cares?"
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