26 November 2008

The Blind Squirrel Theory

Several readers have asked why no diatribe about the award choices. The answer: I'm still recovering from shock. Writers managed to get all six major awards right. What's to say?

It doesn't hurt that the choices for all but AL MVP were Yale locks. Would anyone really argue that
Geovanny Soto wasn't the NL Rookie of the Year? (Well, yes. Three so-called expert baseball writers cast ballots for Edinson Volquez, who didn't qualify for rookie status. Good thing we limit the voting to the people who follow the game daily.) Or that Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher in the Senior Circuit?

In the AL MVP race, there were two best choices and the
BBWAA chose one of them. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

I could quibble over the large minority of voters who think Ryan Howard, he of the .339
OBP and miserable fielding, is his league's most valuable. I still shake my head over writers' mancrush on Justin Morneau, whose major accomplishment seems to be hitting behind Joe Mauer. But really, down-ballot debates are for geeks, obssessives and childless...um, uh, well I just don't want to engage in them.

Notice that I haven't mentioned the Manager of the Year Award. The truth is, there is no such award. There is simply an award for the manager whose team most out-performed expectations. I don't believe that anyone knows who is having a "good year" or "bad year" managing, short of an outright mutiny by the players. And the proof is that managers never repeat, even though it's fair to assume that whoever is the best manager in baseball is probably the best several years running. The reason is that once a team achieves success, they can't be a surprise the next year.

So bravo for a year in which the deserving were acknowledged. Don't count on it happening again. Blind squirrels don't generally regain their sight.

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