Cliff Lee, of course, has been spectacular for the Indians. While his team's offense has sputtered, he's posted a 22-3, 2.54 record and a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 223 innings. He's been not just an innings eater; he's been an innings killer. His value, relative to the value of a AAA-level replacement at his position, has been the highest in the American League.
But pitchers have their own award, which Lee will win over Roy Halladay in Johnson-Goldwater style. Besides, no one really has confidence that there's any way to compare pitchers to everyday players.
Milton Bradley has been the best hitter in the AL when he's been healthy. He's gotten on base safely 44% of the time and pounded 22 homers and 32 doubles in just 500 plate appearances, and played a creditable outfield on those 37 occasions when he's been asked to. The problem with Bradley's candidacy is that during the nearly 40 games he's missed this season, his value to his team has been zero. That and the park effects of whatever they're calling The Ballpark at Arlington these days really hamper his claim.
As is his wont, Alex Rodriguez has been the best player in the AL this year. His .963 OPS, his 11th straight season with 35 homers, his 18 steals in 21 attempts and his good defense at an important position are straight out of MVP Central Casting. But there is no doubt that ARod has peed his pants everytime the Bombers have needed him to come up big.
Dustin Pedroia seems to have a lot of support for AL MVP. He's been the Red Sox sparkplug, hitting safely 38% of the time with surprising power -- 54 doubles and 17 jacks -- while swiping 20 of 21 bags. On top of that, he's an excellent middle infielder. He may not have the numbers of competitiors at DH and first base, but he'd be significantly more difficult to replace.
Paired with Pedroia is Ian Kinsler, whose resume is eerily similar. His on-base percentage matches Pedroia's and he's hit for even more power and succeeded in 26 of 28 steal attempts. He's also a very good second-sacker. But Pedroia gets the edge because he's played nearly 40 more games and batted in a tougher home park for offense.
Carolos Quentin's problem is not just that he's missed 32 games, but the 32 most critical of the year. As the White Sox struggle to hold off the Twins, Quentin can't contribute a thing to his team because of his broken wrist. It's not his fault that he got hit by a pitch, but it's the fact nonetheless. Lo siento, Carlos.
Kevin Youklis is a fine first-bagger with a .965 OPS who has been a steady force on the Red Sox all season, but an MVP? His credentials are more like "she has a nice personality" than "man, she's hot!" Much the same can be said for Justin Morneau, whose .883 OPS as a first baseman is just not MVP material.
I don't know how many baseball writers have slept with Morneau's wife, but something about him engenders love from the baseball media far beyond his baseball accomplishments. We already know he wasn't Deep Throat, right? With the prospect of another Morneau MVP unforeclosed, Bud Selig should agree immediately to apply the video replay rule to the BBWAA vote. That call would get overturned by a knowledgable umpire so fast it would leave Usain Bolt in the dust.
As a matter of fact, Justin Morneau is the second best player on the Twins. Imagine if you could find a guy who hits just as well, but plays a position where hitters are scarcer than truths in a presidential election. Batting champion Joe Mauer's .867 OPS comes out of a squat. The OPS of the next best fulltime AL catcher? Dioner Navarro's .756. That gives Minnesota a giant advantage over other teams.
To beat a dead horse, notice that none of the candidates has been examined in the context of his team's place in the standings. All they can do is contribute wins to their teams by swinging the ash and pumping the leather. Whether those are wins 90-99 or 70-79 is a matter for their teammates to answer for.
One more thing from the equine mortuary: there is little place in this discussion for late season heroics. Why give extra credit to a player who saddles his team with a weak first-half performance and then turns it on in August? How is that better than carrying your team to a big lead and tailing off as the summer turns to Fall? Or just playing consistantly well all 162 games?
Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer are my MVP guys and frankly I'm not sure how to distinguish them. Baseball writers who mark their ballots for ARod or Quentin or Lee will be excused for their mental absence. But if Francisco Rodriguez gets even a third place vote, the perpetrator(s) should be hunted down and forced to watch Pirate games for the next decade.
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