On June 3, Yasiel Puig's Major League career turns a year old. In that span, he has gone from five-tool phenom to over-rated youth to untamed bronco to retroactive kidnapping victim to legitimate star, where he stands today.
It turns out that, histrionics over his home run posturing aside, Puig is every bit the player he appeared to be at the start.
After 155 games, Puig is abusing NL pitchers at a .328/.408/.564 clip. His results can no longer be attributed to solely to a ridiculously hot debut (1.180 OPS in his first month.) In fact, after Puig cooled off in the second half of 2013, he has elevated his game this year (1.064 OPS in 2014) both at the plate and in the field. IN his first full year, Puig has added nearly eight wins to the Dodgers, squarely in MVP territory.
Indeed, Puig has demonstrated that he could adjust to the league's adjustment to him, and then adjust to subsequent adjustments. He has much better command of the strike zone than he showed last season, lowering his rate of swings outside the zone. He has better calibrated his game as well, demonstrating restraint on throws to bases and diving for balls in close games that he lays off in blowouts. Amid all the fanfare, it's easy to forget what a stud this 6'3", 235-pound athlete Puig is.
Puig is still a bit unrestrained on the basepaths: for all his speed he's been gunned down on 12 of his 28 SB attempts and occasionally still runs into outs after hits. But he's just exiting his rookie status, after all.
On the subject of admiring his home runs and hotdogging in the field, let me offer a word of advice to offended opponents: Shut the !@#$%^&* up. (You got three words free.) If you don't like the way Puig -- or anyone else -- runs out his long balls, don't serve them up.
Puig will make $6 million each of the next six seasons, an amount he will have earned in its entirety by the end of 2014, barring injury. So for all the controversy surrounding his debut and subsequent performance, the bottom line is that Yasiel Puig is a spectacular baseball player whom any fan should want on their team.
31 May 2014
30 May 2014
Wanted: Sports Journalist Who Knows Sports. And Journalism
Man, this is like stomping on dead mosquitoes -- doesn't take any skill but sure is satisfying.
Here's the A.P. write-up in my newspaper on the Tigers' 5-4 win over Oakland.
Miguel Cabrera hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the fifth inning to back Rick Porcello's eighth victory and the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series.
Ahem.
Let's list the individuals elements of stupid involved in this description.
1. Cabrera flied out and got top billing.
2. Ian Kinsler doubled and got to third without Cabrera's help, but was not mentioned.
3. The fifth inning?!
4. Cabrera's momentous out -- did I mention it was in the fifth inning? -- made the score 3-2. Had the Tigers failed to score two more runs they would have lost.
5. Porcello pitched 5 2/3 and allowed 11 baserunners, including six walks. In other words, he stunk.
6. Three middle relievers saved the game by shutting out Oakland over 2 1/3 frames, including bailing Porcello out of a jam in the sixth.
7. Wins shmins: Porcello has pitched roughly average this year.
What a senscient editor would have re-written:
Ian Kinsler wrapped a pair of doubles and scored twice to lead the Detroit Tigers over the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series. Relievers Gary Kroll, Al Albuquerque and Joba Chamberlain offset a wild performance by starter Rick Porcello to nail down the win.
Here's the A.P. write-up in my newspaper on the Tigers' 5-4 win over Oakland.
Miguel Cabrera hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the fifth inning to back Rick Porcello's eighth victory and the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series.
Ahem.
Let's list the individuals elements of stupid involved in this description.
1. Cabrera flied out and got top billing.
2. Ian Kinsler doubled and got to third without Cabrera's help, but was not mentioned.
3. The fifth inning?!
4. Cabrera's momentous out -- did I mention it was in the fifth inning? -- made the score 3-2. Had the Tigers failed to score two more runs they would have lost.
5. Porcello pitched 5 2/3 and allowed 11 baserunners, including six walks. In other words, he stunk.
6. Three middle relievers saved the game by shutting out Oakland over 2 1/3 frames, including bailing Porcello out of a jam in the sixth.
7. Wins shmins: Porcello has pitched roughly average this year.
What a senscient editor would have re-written:
Ian Kinsler wrapped a pair of doubles and scored twice to lead the Detroit Tigers over the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series. Relievers Gary Kroll, Al Albuquerque and Joba Chamberlain offset a wild performance by starter Rick Porcello to nail down the win.
29 May 2014
Depth: The New Inefficiency
Last season, the New York Yankees roster went on the disabled list. In the absence of players like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira, the Bombers plugged in whatever they could rummage from the junkyard -- Jason Nix, Eduardo Nunez, Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner and a cast of thousands who contributed even less. The result was their second playoff absence since 1995.
Meanwhile, the talent-challenged Rays and A's made the playoffs, winning 92 and 96 games respectively. The Athletics featured one star -- the hitherto unknown third baseman Josh Donaldson -- and no one else who either batted over .300 or socked more than 30 homers. On the mound, Bartolo Colon shocked the league with an 18-6, 2.65 record, but you'd be forgiven if you never heard of the rest of the staff.
So how did Oakland win the West? How about this: seven of nine regulars posted an above average OPS, and all nine cleared 90% of league average. Another five backups with 100+ at bats contributed likewise. On the hill, the A's threw six quality arms at the league, the worst of whom was Tommy Milone, 12-9, 4.14 with a K/BB rate over three. The bullpen chipped in well-distributed excellence, with seven above-average pitchers finishing more than 10 games each.
It wasn't just the numbers on the bench. Skipper Bob Melvin slotted 18 different players into the DH role over the 162 games, using it to maximize lefty-righty and offense-defense match-ups. Four catchers shared shin guard duty -- Derek Norris, utility man John Jaso and Kurt Suzuki for their hitting skills and Stephen Vogt for his defense.
This year, Billy Beane inked four solid relievers to longish-term deals, a rarity in MLB and certainly in Oakland. The lead the AL in scoring and in ERA; following a four-game skid they remain atop the AL West.
For a couple of years after Moneyball spilled Beane's beans, the A's lost a bit of their edge. But he has found new inefficiencies to exploit and has Oakland poised to ride their embarrassingly low payroll to a third straight West Division title. And it's easy to see what the inefficiency is.
While the Yankees were reacting to inevitable injuries on their geriatric roster, the A's prepared for it by inking average players to moderate paydays and scattering them around the diamond. The result is a catching platoon of Derek Norris and John Jaso that has limited their plate appearances to opposite-handed starters. Combined they are hitting .302/.397/.482 and earning $2.8 million.
Just three of the A's 13 moundsmen earn more than $800,000 -- closer Jim Johnson, set-up man Luke Gregerson and starter Scott Kazmir. Hitting star Donaldson, still under team control, takes home half-a-million bucks. It's as if the A's, unable to afford George Clooney and Sandra Bullock, entice Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson to act in their movie for scale, and then ink Annette Benning, Robert Downey, Jr. and Maggie Smith to low-dough deals with the promise of juicy roles.
It's working, and as soon as the rest of baseball figures it out, Oakland and Tampa will be on to something else.
Meanwhile, the talent-challenged Rays and A's made the playoffs, winning 92 and 96 games respectively. The Athletics featured one star -- the hitherto unknown third baseman Josh Donaldson -- and no one else who either batted over .300 or socked more than 30 homers. On the mound, Bartolo Colon shocked the league with an 18-6, 2.65 record, but you'd be forgiven if you never heard of the rest of the staff.
So how did Oakland win the West? How about this: seven of nine regulars posted an above average OPS, and all nine cleared 90% of league average. Another five backups with 100+ at bats contributed likewise. On the hill, the A's threw six quality arms at the league, the worst of whom was Tommy Milone, 12-9, 4.14 with a K/BB rate over three. The bullpen chipped in well-distributed excellence, with seven above-average pitchers finishing more than 10 games each.
It wasn't just the numbers on the bench. Skipper Bob Melvin slotted 18 different players into the DH role over the 162 games, using it to maximize lefty-righty and offense-defense match-ups. Four catchers shared shin guard duty -- Derek Norris, utility man John Jaso and Kurt Suzuki for their hitting skills and Stephen Vogt for his defense.
This year, Billy Beane inked four solid relievers to longish-term deals, a rarity in MLB and certainly in Oakland. The lead the AL in scoring and in ERA; following a four-game skid they remain atop the AL West.
For a couple of years after Moneyball spilled Beane's beans, the A's lost a bit of their edge. But he has found new inefficiencies to exploit and has Oakland poised to ride their embarrassingly low payroll to a third straight West Division title. And it's easy to see what the inefficiency is.
While the Yankees were reacting to inevitable injuries on their geriatric roster, the A's prepared for it by inking average players to moderate paydays and scattering them around the diamond. The result is a catching platoon of Derek Norris and John Jaso that has limited their plate appearances to opposite-handed starters. Combined they are hitting .302/.397/.482 and earning $2.8 million.
Just three of the A's 13 moundsmen earn more than $800,000 -- closer Jim Johnson, set-up man Luke Gregerson and starter Scott Kazmir. Hitting star Donaldson, still under team control, takes home half-a-million bucks. It's as if the A's, unable to afford George Clooney and Sandra Bullock, entice Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson to act in their movie for scale, and then ink Annette Benning, Robert Downey, Jr. and Maggie Smith to low-dough deals with the promise of juicy roles.
It's working, and as soon as the rest of baseball figures it out, Oakland and Tampa will be on to something else.
27 May 2014
Wash Incorrectly. Rinse. Repeat Every Sunday
Below is the listing in my Sunday newspaper of the team batting leaders in the National League.
This listing reflects the fact that the AP and my local sports section editor worship the false god of batting average.
But this is nonsense, of course.
The purpose of batting is to score runs, not run up a batting average. The Tigers aren't the top hitting team; they've only tallied 220 runs. The A's have plated 248 runs, most in the league, but they're listed 10th because they do it with home runs and walks, not with batting average.
Detroit is only the sixth best hitting team. In fact, though they lead the league in batting average by a goodly margin, they're one free pass from the bottom of the league in walks, leaving them third in OBP.
If you were to re-order this list by what really matters it would look like this: 10-4-6-7-9-1-2-5-12-3-14-11-13-8-15.
There's not a lot of correlation there. Teams in the top half of the league in batting average tended to be in the top half in scoring, but that's about the entirety of the connection.
If you ordered teams by OBP or OPS you'd have a higher correlation. Listing teams in the order of their home runs would give you roughly the same mess.
Hitting for high average is valuable, but it's only one of many building blocks of the ultimate aim -- scoring runs. Could someone wake the Associated Press and let them know?
This listing reflects the fact that the AP and my local sports section editor worship the false god of batting average.
|
But this is nonsense, of course.
The purpose of batting is to score runs, not run up a batting average. The Tigers aren't the top hitting team; they've only tallied 220 runs. The A's have plated 248 runs, most in the league, but they're listed 10th because they do it with home runs and walks, not with batting average.
Detroit is only the sixth best hitting team. In fact, though they lead the league in batting average by a goodly margin, they're one free pass from the bottom of the league in walks, leaving them third in OBP.
If you were to re-order this list by what really matters it would look like this: 10-4-6-7-9-1-2-5-12-3-14-11-13-8-15.
There's not a lot of correlation there. Teams in the top half of the league in batting average tended to be in the top half in scoring, but that's about the entirety of the connection.
If you ordered teams by OBP or OPS you'd have a higher correlation. Listing teams in the order of their home runs would give you roughly the same mess.
Hitting for high average is valuable, but it's only one of many building blocks of the ultimate aim -- scoring runs. Could someone wake the Associated Press and let them know?
26 May 2014
Do Not Chew Your Stolen Bases
One of the problems faced by Luddites and other haters of Sabermetrics is that they are forced to fight gun battles with knives. The numbers crunchers speak in the language of research, data and measurable results. Cement heads talk about tradition, unwritten rules and a hatred of math.
Keith Hernandez is not a Luddite or a hater of Sabermetrics. In fact, he's one-third of the best local TV broadcast team in the Majors. Along with Gary Cohen and Ron Darling, Hernandez provides more insight in one inning than in an entire week's worth of White Sox telecasts.
But even Hernandez is susceptible to misrepresenting the basics of new analysis. On a recent broadcast, Hernandez claimed that Sabermetrics eschews the stolen base.
Sabermetricians doesn't eschew stolen bases. They don't chew them and they don't es them. They don't cashew stolen bases. Or almond or peanut them. Seamheads don't apply any nut or legume to stolen bases. If you can count, you love stolen bases as much the innumerate fan.
Stolen bases are good. They take runners from first and put them on second. Yay.
On average, teams score .941 runs when they start an inning with a runner on first and none out. With that runner instead on second, they score 1.17 runs. That's an extra run every fifth game. If your opponent offers you an extra run every fifth game, take it.
What Sabermetrics doesn't like is getting thrown out trying to steal. Outs are bad. Far worse than advancing a base is good. In fact, research (no! not that!) shows that getting thrown out attempting to steal offsets slightly more than two successful thefts.
If that same runner gets nailed instead, his team's run expectancy that inning drops from .941 to .291. He costs his team two-thirds of a run. Not only is he no longer on base, but his team forgoes a precious out. They only get 27 of them.
Which is why stat guys look at steals with a jaundiced eye. The year Ty Cobb set the steals record with 96, he ran into 38 outs. His baserunning, for all the added bases he took, was worth all of two runs. Rickey Henderson is the current record holder with 130 steals in 1982. He was cut down 42 times. He netted his team about nine runs.
Those are commendable, but hardly worthy of a record. For most of my youth, Maury Wills was the steal king. In his 104-steal season of 1962, he was caught just 13 times, a net benefit to his team of 22 runs. So although Henderson broke his record, it came at a stiff price. For his extra 26 steals, Henderson got thrown out 29 times, a miserable tradeoff.
Henderson is the single season base thief god, but Tim Raines was more valuable stealing bases for six consecutive seasons -- in which he swiped 454 of 513 -- than Henderson was in his record-breaking year. (To be fair, Rickey had six better seasons on the basepaths too, including the following year, when he stole 108 of 127. Absent his 1982 season, that would stand as the record without the caveat.)
So Sabermetricians are being rational when they look askance at SB numbers without knowing the CS numbers too. Of course, being rational is another thing they do that annoys Luddites.
Keith Hernandez is not a Luddite or a hater of Sabermetrics. In fact, he's one-third of the best local TV broadcast team in the Majors. Along with Gary Cohen and Ron Darling, Hernandez provides more insight in one inning than in an entire week's worth of White Sox telecasts.
But even Hernandez is susceptible to misrepresenting the basics of new analysis. On a recent broadcast, Hernandez claimed that Sabermetrics eschews the stolen base.
Sabermetricians doesn't eschew stolen bases. They don't chew them and they don't es them. They don't cashew stolen bases. Or almond or peanut them. Seamheads don't apply any nut or legume to stolen bases. If you can count, you love stolen bases as much the innumerate fan.
Stolen bases are good. They take runners from first and put them on second. Yay.
On average, teams score .941 runs when they start an inning with a runner on first and none out. With that runner instead on second, they score 1.17 runs. That's an extra run every fifth game. If your opponent offers you an extra run every fifth game, take it.
What Sabermetrics doesn't like is getting thrown out trying to steal. Outs are bad. Far worse than advancing a base is good. In fact, research (no! not that!) shows that getting thrown out attempting to steal offsets slightly more than two successful thefts.
If that same runner gets nailed instead, his team's run expectancy that inning drops from .941 to .291. He costs his team two-thirds of a run. Not only is he no longer on base, but his team forgoes a precious out. They only get 27 of them.
Which is why stat guys look at steals with a jaundiced eye. The year Ty Cobb set the steals record with 96, he ran into 38 outs. His baserunning, for all the added bases he took, was worth all of two runs. Rickey Henderson is the current record holder with 130 steals in 1982. He was cut down 42 times. He netted his team about nine runs.
Those are commendable, but hardly worthy of a record. For most of my youth, Maury Wills was the steal king. In his 104-steal season of 1962, he was caught just 13 times, a net benefit to his team of 22 runs. So although Henderson broke his record, it came at a stiff price. For his extra 26 steals, Henderson got thrown out 29 times, a miserable tradeoff.
Henderson is the single season base thief god, but Tim Raines was more valuable stealing bases for six consecutive seasons -- in which he swiped 454 of 513 -- than Henderson was in his record-breaking year. (To be fair, Rickey had six better seasons on the basepaths too, including the following year, when he stole 108 of 127. Absent his 1982 season, that would stand as the record without the caveat.)
So Sabermetricians are being rational when they look askance at SB numbers without knowing the CS numbers too. Of course, being rational is another thing they do that annoys Luddites.
18 May 2014
So What Was the Regular Season For?
Some brief dead-horse beating . . .
The complaint here about professional basketball and hockey in North America has always been that they play 80 games each for no apparent reason, allow mediocrity into the badly-devalued playoffs, drag through weeks of post-season revenue generation (the "post" season -- practically an admission in itself that the "season" is irrelevant) before finally getting, anti-climatically, to the point.
The conference finals are now starting in the NBA and NHL and they provide a stark case in point.
In the NBA, all the silliness has been dispatched after voluminous faux drama and over-wrought analysis and the result is exactly what you could have predicted on the first day of the season. The finals comprise not only the top two seeds in each conference but also the best teams entering the season, lo those many months ago. Indeed, they are the very same teams that squared off in last year's conference finals.
Maybe even more to the point, the favorites in each series -- the teams that met in last year's championship series -- are the two most notable for their disdain of the regular season. San Antonio's coach has been fined for resting his stars during meaningless January contests. Miami, clearly the most talented outfit, coasted though the long gauntlet with the singular goal of getting its number two star healthy come crunch time.
Put another way, a season that has slogged through six months is now finally beginning in earnest in month seven.
Hockey has the same issue -- except in reverse. After eliminating only a handful of awful teams following a full season of play, the NHL playoffs have given us two five seeds, a four seed and a six seed in the conference finals. How a team performs in the regular season is utterly, completely, inexcusably meaningless as long as it makes the cut, a bar so low as to be laughable.
Once in the tournament, winning in hockey seems to be more about a hot goaltender, a healthy team and some fortunate bounces of the puck than anything else.
Put another way, a winter sport has slogged through six months to determine absolutely nothing. The winner of the Cup will not be able to claim it is the best hockey club, or the second best or anything except the survivor of a tournament that will finally conclude in the opposite hemisphere's winter.
There are great story lines, and should be inspiring competition, in these four series. I'll be watching.
For the first time since last May.
The complaint here about professional basketball and hockey in North America has always been that they play 80 games each for no apparent reason, allow mediocrity into the badly-devalued playoffs, drag through weeks of post-season revenue generation (the "post" season -- practically an admission in itself that the "season" is irrelevant) before finally getting, anti-climatically, to the point.
The conference finals are now starting in the NBA and NHL and they provide a stark case in point.
In the NBA, all the silliness has been dispatched after voluminous faux drama and over-wrought analysis and the result is exactly what you could have predicted on the first day of the season. The finals comprise not only the top two seeds in each conference but also the best teams entering the season, lo those many months ago. Indeed, they are the very same teams that squared off in last year's conference finals.
Maybe even more to the point, the favorites in each series -- the teams that met in last year's championship series -- are the two most notable for their disdain of the regular season. San Antonio's coach has been fined for resting his stars during meaningless January contests. Miami, clearly the most talented outfit, coasted though the long gauntlet with the singular goal of getting its number two star healthy come crunch time.
Put another way, a season that has slogged through six months is now finally beginning in earnest in month seven.
Hockey has the same issue -- except in reverse. After eliminating only a handful of awful teams following a full season of play, the NHL playoffs have given us two five seeds, a four seed and a six seed in the conference finals. How a team performs in the regular season is utterly, completely, inexcusably meaningless as long as it makes the cut, a bar so low as to be laughable.
Once in the tournament, winning in hockey seems to be more about a hot goaltender, a healthy team and some fortunate bounces of the puck than anything else.
Put another way, a winter sport has slogged through six months to determine absolutely nothing. The winner of the Cup will not be able to claim it is the best hockey club, or the second best or anything except the survivor of a tournament that will finally conclude in the opposite hemisphere's winter.
There are great story lines, and should be inspiring competition, in these four series. I'll be watching.
For the first time since last May.
15 May 2014
Johnny Cueto Goes All the Way (But Doesn't Give Up Anything)
If you were asked to name the top 10 pitchers in baseball, or 20, or 30, you would likely forget to include Johnny Cueto. The Reds' ace has rocked ERAs of 3.64, 2.31, 2.78, 2.82 and 1.25 since 2009, but he's won more than 12 games once and missed a year's worth of starts the last three seasons.
Well, the 28-year-old righty is making amends in 2014. Cueto has started nine games this season and thrown 63 innings. That's eight frames-a-game, including three complete games and two shutouts. Opposing batters have collected just 33 hits against him this season -- fewer than five-a-game, plus 18 walks and 76 strikeouts. Yeesh.
Here are the nine starts in order:
Seven innings, one run on three hits against the Cards
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Mets
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Rays
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Bucs
Nine innings, one run on three hits against the Bucs
Eight innings, no runs on three hits against the Braves
Eight innings, two runs on three hits against the Brewers
Eight innings, two runs on five hits against the Rockies
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Padres
It's the first time a pitcher has begun the season with nine straight games of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs in 100 years.
Not a clunker in the bunch; in fact, there's barely a hint of vulnerability. So what is Cueto, 9-0? 8-1? How many no-decisions can a guy have when he's left to the bullpen nine innings in two months?
The answer is, he's 4-2 with three no decisions. His two losses are 1-0 to St. Louis and 2-1 to Tampa. In his nine starts, his mates have hung more than four runs on the opponent once, fewer than two runs three times. What's a guy got to do?
Cueto earned the "W" in Game One of a twin bill against San Diego today. In Game Two, the Reds showed why Cueto has to work so hard for his victories. After opposing hurler Tyler Ross began the game bouncing one slider after another in the dirt, loading the bases on walks, only two Reds forced him to go even four pitches for the next four innings. Both walked, but no one else made a dent and the Reds went down meekly as Ross built confidence and control.
Good luck, Johnny. You'll no doubt continue to win -- as long as you keep pitching complete game shutouts.
Well, the 28-year-old righty is making amends in 2014. Cueto has started nine games this season and thrown 63 innings. That's eight frames-a-game, including three complete games and two shutouts. Opposing batters have collected just 33 hits against him this season -- fewer than five-a-game, plus 18 walks and 76 strikeouts. Yeesh.
Here are the nine starts in order:
Seven innings, one run on three hits against the Cards
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Mets
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Rays
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Bucs
Nine innings, one run on three hits against the Bucs
Eight innings, no runs on three hits against the Braves
Eight innings, two runs on three hits against the Brewers
Eight innings, two runs on five hits against the Rockies
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Padres
It's the first time a pitcher has begun the season with nine straight games of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs in 100 years.
Not a clunker in the bunch; in fact, there's barely a hint of vulnerability. So what is Cueto, 9-0? 8-1? How many no-decisions can a guy have when he's left to the bullpen nine innings in two months?
The answer is, he's 4-2 with three no decisions. His two losses are 1-0 to St. Louis and 2-1 to Tampa. In his nine starts, his mates have hung more than four runs on the opponent once, fewer than two runs three times. What's a guy got to do?
Cueto earned the "W" in Game One of a twin bill against San Diego today. In Game Two, the Reds showed why Cueto has to work so hard for his victories. After opposing hurler Tyler Ross began the game bouncing one slider after another in the dirt, loading the bases on walks, only two Reds forced him to go even four pitches for the next four innings. Both walked, but no one else made a dent and the Reds went down meekly as Ross built confidence and control.
Good luck, Johnny. You'll no doubt continue to win -- as long as you keep pitching complete game shutouts.
11 May 2014
Stuff You Didn't Know
Padres Production
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
10 May 2014
Pain for Padre Pitchers
The San Diego Padres busted out for a 10-1 home clobbering of Miami last night, increasing their total season scoring by 11%.
The "Hitless Wonders" were positively Ruthian compared to the 2014 Friars, who are not just last in the Majors in scoring, batting average, on base percentage and OPS this year, but for half a century.
Pitcher Ian Kennedy smacked a home run earlier this season, tying him for fifth on the club. Of the nine Padres with 50 or more plate appearances, just three are batting over .230 or getting on base better than 28% of the time. Overall, the team is roughly replacement level at the plate and on the base paths. Considering that they've stolen 23 of 31 bases as a team, replacements might be warranted at bat.
Petco is partly to blame for their struggles. The park is baseball's leading run-killer. But going into yesterday's game, Baseball Prospectus's R.J. Anderson reports, "even park-adjusted numbers produce a bad odor, as the Padres' .219 True Average is more than 10 points below the worst offense on record since 1950: the 1981 Blue Jays, who were led in plate appearances by Alfredo Griffin, owner of a .243 on-base percentage."
Injuries have robbed the team of some of its top performers. Center fielder Cameron Maybin has missed two thirds of the season with a torn bicep. His replacement, Will Venable, is hitting half of Maybin's .361/.410/.500. Utility infielder Alexi Amirista (.185/.267./.272) is no Chase Headley at third; then again, Headley hasn't been himself either (.186/.250/.314) when healthy.
It's hard to imagine the offense not improving, if only because the worst offenders will eventually be replaced. In the meantime, Padre pitching has done its part to keep the team within five games of .500. But without more of those 10-1 shellackings, some history is going to get make in San Diego this year.
The "Hitless Wonders" were positively Ruthian compared to the 2014 Friars, who are not just last in the Majors in scoring, batting average, on base percentage and OPS this year, but for half a century.
Pitcher Ian Kennedy smacked a home run earlier this season, tying him for fifth on the club. Of the nine Padres with 50 or more plate appearances, just three are batting over .230 or getting on base better than 28% of the time. Overall, the team is roughly replacement level at the plate and on the base paths. Considering that they've stolen 23 of 31 bases as a team, replacements might be warranted at bat.
Petco is partly to blame for their struggles. The park is baseball's leading run-killer. But going into yesterday's game, Baseball Prospectus's R.J. Anderson reports, "even park-adjusted numbers produce a bad odor, as the Padres' .219 True Average is more than 10 points below the worst offense on record since 1950: the 1981 Blue Jays, who were led in plate appearances by Alfredo Griffin, owner of a .243 on-base percentage."
Injuries have robbed the team of some of its top performers. Center fielder Cameron Maybin has missed two thirds of the season with a torn bicep. His replacement, Will Venable, is hitting half of Maybin's .361/.410/.500. Utility infielder Alexi Amirista (.185/.267./.272) is no Chase Headley at third; then again, Headley hasn't been himself either (.186/.250/.314) when healthy.
It's hard to imagine the offense not improving, if only because the worst offenders will eventually be replaced. In the meantime, Padre pitching has done its part to keep the team within five games of .500. But without more of those 10-1 shellackings, some history is going to get make in San Diego this year.
06 May 2014
Let's Rub Robinson Cano's Uniform in Dirt
Dustin Pedroia is an awesome player. A career .301 hitter, he gets aboard at an admirable .367 clip, flashes leather at second, swipes bases efficiently and plays with verve that endears him to teammates. He's posted 39.4 WAR since entering the league in 2006.
Ronbinson Cano also flashes leather at the keystone, though vervelessly. He poses no threat, except to his own team, of running. A career .309 hitter, he's on base a little less than Pedroia but hits for significantly more power -- twice as many home runs and 50% more RBI. He's also outscored Petey by 162 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox have both created scads of crooked numbers during the two players' careers, so that's not an issue.
Overall, Cano has posted 45.5 WAR in one more season, six wins more valuable overall than his Boston rival. But Mariano Rivera says in his new book that he prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
Rivera says Pedroia burns to win and Cano does not. Well, I burn to win. Unfortunately, my talent lacks the will to exist.
More importantly, does "desire" really show up in the results? In his career, Pedroia is a slightly worse hitter when he bats with two outs. Cano is too, though he retains more of his value. But Mariano Rivera prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
With runners in scoring position, both players lose some value. Pedroia makes up some ground on Cano, but Cano is still the better hitter.
Pedroia comes alive in high-leverage situations -- when the game is really on the line -- hitting safely nearly 40% of the time. Cano can't match him. But Cano makes it all up in medium leverage situations. It's a point for Petey, but hardly conclusive.
How about the post-season, when it really matters? Ha! They both stink. Cano has been more pungent, but nothing about Pedroia's post-season resume says "burn to win."
Cano is also getting better; his four best seasons have been his last four. Pedroia peaked in '08 and has more or less maintained that level of performance.
So why would the sainted Mariano Rivers take a jab at his former teammate and issue an homage to a former rival? The less obvious reason is a soiled uniform on a 5' 8" body. Pedroia makes a habit of throwing his miniature self in the dirt each game, and that gives the appearance of caring. We all adore the scrappy little over-achiever.
The more obvious reason is that Cano committed the cardinal sin of jumping the Yankee ship for the money. It's hysterical to hear the team's fans contort themselves to find that odious. Evidently they discount any accomplishments by Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Wade Boggs, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter . . . how much time do you have?
Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher of all time or at least until Craig Kimbrel retires. But that doesn't make him an expert on analyzing the game, any more than it made Joe Morgan or Harold Reynolds or John Kruk. The two second basemen are both potential Hall of Famers, but the talent is worth more than all the world's scrappiness. Take Cano, and if it makes you feel any better, you can rub his uniform in dirt before he puts it on.
Ronbinson Cano also flashes leather at the keystone, though vervelessly. He poses no threat, except to his own team, of running. A career .309 hitter, he's on base a little less than Pedroia but hits for significantly more power -- twice as many home runs and 50% more RBI. He's also outscored Petey by 162 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox have both created scads of crooked numbers during the two players' careers, so that's not an issue.
Overall, Cano has posted 45.5 WAR in one more season, six wins more valuable overall than his Boston rival. But Mariano Rivera says in his new book that he prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
Rivera says Pedroia burns to win and Cano does not. Well, I burn to win. Unfortunately, my talent lacks the will to exist.
More importantly, does "desire" really show up in the results? In his career, Pedroia is a slightly worse hitter when he bats with two outs. Cano is too, though he retains more of his value. But Mariano Rivera prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
With runners in scoring position, both players lose some value. Pedroia makes up some ground on Cano, but Cano is still the better hitter.
Pedroia comes alive in high-leverage situations -- when the game is really on the line -- hitting safely nearly 40% of the time. Cano can't match him. But Cano makes it all up in medium leverage situations. It's a point for Petey, but hardly conclusive.
How about the post-season, when it really matters? Ha! They both stink. Cano has been more pungent, but nothing about Pedroia's post-season resume says "burn to win."
Cano is also getting better; his four best seasons have been his last four. Pedroia peaked in '08 and has more or less maintained that level of performance.
So why would the sainted Mariano Rivers take a jab at his former teammate and issue an homage to a former rival? The less obvious reason is a soiled uniform on a 5' 8" body. Pedroia makes a habit of throwing his miniature self in the dirt each game, and that gives the appearance of caring. We all adore the scrappy little over-achiever.
The more obvious reason is that Cano committed the cardinal sin of jumping the Yankee ship for the money. It's hysterical to hear the team's fans contort themselves to find that odious. Evidently they discount any accomplishments by Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Wade Boggs, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter . . . how much time do you have?
Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher of all time or at least until Craig Kimbrel retires. But that doesn't make him an expert on analyzing the game, any more than it made Joe Morgan or Harold Reynolds or John Kruk. The two second basemen are both potential Hall of Famers, but the talent is worth more than all the world's scrappiness. Take Cano, and if it makes you feel any better, you can rub his uniform in dirt before he puts it on.
05 May 2014
Shelby Miller: Payback Will Be A Bitch
If you want to see advanced metrics in action, pay attention to Cardinals starter Shelby Miller.
Going into today's game against the stumbling Braves, Miller sported a 3-2 record and 3.15 ERA. Extrapolated to a full season, he would be 15-10, 3.15, which looks a lot like last year's 15-9, 3.06.
But it's nothing like that. Because in 34 innings this year. Shelby had allowed 51 base runners (thanks to a league-leading 21 walks) and a disconcerting seven home runs (also league-leading.) He has fanned 26, not nearly enough to temper the damage. This is not the work of a 3.15 ERA pitcher. It's the work of a 6.19 ERA pitcher (according to the advanced metrics.)
Miller has kept his ERA low by flexing muscles he likely doesn't have. First, he's had six-plus runs scored for him twice. Not surprisingly, they account for two of his three wins.
More to the point, the 23-year-old righty has been death with runners on. Opponents are batting .163 against him with men on base. He's held them to .043 with runners in scoring position.
Perhaps that sounds to you like Miller bears down with runners on. If that's the case, his pitching coach needs to smack him upside his head. Anyone who can pitch that way when they focus should focus more.
Far more likely, says 120 years of baseball experience, Miller is cashing in good karma. But the karma bank will be overdrawn soon enough and then one of three things will happen:
1. Miller will stop handing out free passes like they're condom samples in a high school.
2. He will do a better job keeping the ball in the park.
3. Payback will be a bitch.
In the game against the Braves, Miller split the difference and picked up another win. In five frames he allowed eight hitters to reach. But he put the kibosh on the long ball and got good relief support, holding Atlanta to two runs in a 4-3 win.
Even that can't go on very long, so keep an eye on Shelby Miller's ERA going forward. History predicts it will rise with the temperatures as spring turns to summer.
Going into today's game against the stumbling Braves, Miller sported a 3-2 record and 3.15 ERA. Extrapolated to a full season, he would be 15-10, 3.15, which looks a lot like last year's 15-9, 3.06.
But it's nothing like that. Because in 34 innings this year. Shelby had allowed 51 base runners (thanks to a league-leading 21 walks) and a disconcerting seven home runs (also league-leading.) He has fanned 26, not nearly enough to temper the damage. This is not the work of a 3.15 ERA pitcher. It's the work of a 6.19 ERA pitcher (according to the advanced metrics.)
Miller has kept his ERA low by flexing muscles he likely doesn't have. First, he's had six-plus runs scored for him twice. Not surprisingly, they account for two of his three wins.
More to the point, the 23-year-old righty has been death with runners on. Opponents are batting .163 against him with men on base. He's held them to .043 with runners in scoring position.
Perhaps that sounds to you like Miller bears down with runners on. If that's the case, his pitching coach needs to smack him upside his head. Anyone who can pitch that way when they focus should focus more.
Far more likely, says 120 years of baseball experience, Miller is cashing in good karma. But the karma bank will be overdrawn soon enough and then one of three things will happen:
1. Miller will stop handing out free passes like they're condom samples in a high school.
2. He will do a better job keeping the ball in the park.
3. Payback will be a bitch.
In the game against the Braves, Miller split the difference and picked up another win. In five frames he allowed eight hitters to reach. But he put the kibosh on the long ball and got good relief support, holding Atlanta to two runs in a 4-3 win.
Even that can't go on very long, so keep an eye on Shelby Miller's ERA going forward. History predicts it will rise with the temperatures as spring turns to summer.
03 May 2014
Why A Single Is Half a Home Run
Max from Boston asks on behalf of his dad: It strikes us that slugging is measured inaccurately in that a double isn't necessarily worth twice a single, a triple isn't necessarily worth 50% more than a double, a homer may be worth more than 2 doubles, etc. Is there any data regarding the possible value of a weighted slugging pct.?
Is there any data? Ha! The pale-skinned basement-dwellers responsible for much of the sabermetric research over the last generation have trolled every piece of datum from all 400,000 MLB games played since 1876; analyzed each across 49 criteria; subjected them to 11 statistical tests, applied two dozen filters; pickled them in proprietary solutions for 48 hours, rolled them in flour, egg and bread crumbs and sauteed them on high heat until crispy and brown on the edges.
There is more known about shortstop Leo Cardenas' ability to go from first-to-third on a single for the Cincinnati Reds in 1967 than about Toronto mayor Rob Ford's whereabouts last Thursday. Is there any data!
In fact, Max has opened a window into what seamheads call linear weights, exactly the calculation that Max has outlined. With runners on first and second, a double scores two runs, just as a triple does. Leaving the yard produces three -- not four -- times as many runs as a single, and the single leaves a runner just 90 feet from home. So what is the relative value of these events?
Going for Third on A Double? Hardly Worth It
Denied girlfriends after years playing video games, the stubby-fingered geeks have instead focused their pursuits on sifting through every occurrence in baseball history and determined how often and how many runs have scored when these hits (and all other events like fly outs, strikeouts, HBP, errors, etc.) have been involved. These are the relative values, assigning a walk/HBP a vaue of one:
Single ~ 1.25
Double ~ 1.75
Triple ~ 2.25
HR ~ 2.75
Are you shocked that a homer is worth less than three walks and less than two-and-a-quarter singles? Part of the value of each of these accomplishments is in their ability to not cause an out, of which there are a finite number allotted each team per game.
And Now, To Actually Answer the Question
So back to slugging percentage. Clearly just adding up total bases to derive slugging percentage, and therefore OPS, glorifies yard barkers and diminishes the accomplishments of slap hitters. We documented this in March.
There are now better measures than slugging percentage and OPS that are defined by these linear weights. wOBA and True Average are one-stop shopping linear weights measurements of overall offensive performance that include park adjustments and other sanded edges, all rolled up into a number that looks like OBP (wOBA) or batting average (TAv). Here's an example of how wOBA can correct a misconception created by Max's slugging percentage discovery:
Last year, Adam Dunn produced an OPS 48% better than league average. That's awesome. But his wOBA was just .331 -- slightly better than average. Matt Carpenter, whose OPS was lower but whose hit distribution included many fewer home runs and many more singles, doubles (55) and triples (seven), produced a wOBA of .381.
In other words, OPS says Dunn was a great hitter last season and Carpenter a good one. wOBA shows us that Dunn was an above-average offensive performer while Carpenter was a downballot MVP candidate.
Is there any data? Ha! The pale-skinned basement-dwellers responsible for much of the sabermetric research over the last generation have trolled every piece of datum from all 400,000 MLB games played since 1876; analyzed each across 49 criteria; subjected them to 11 statistical tests, applied two dozen filters; pickled them in proprietary solutions for 48 hours, rolled them in flour, egg and bread crumbs and sauteed them on high heat until crispy and brown on the edges.
There is more known about shortstop Leo Cardenas' ability to go from first-to-third on a single for the Cincinnati Reds in 1967 than about Toronto mayor Rob Ford's whereabouts last Thursday. Is there any data!
In fact, Max has opened a window into what seamheads call linear weights, exactly the calculation that Max has outlined. With runners on first and second, a double scores two runs, just as a triple does. Leaving the yard produces three -- not four -- times as many runs as a single, and the single leaves a runner just 90 feet from home. So what is the relative value of these events?
Going for Third on A Double? Hardly Worth It
Denied girlfriends after years playing video games, the stubby-fingered geeks have instead focused their pursuits on sifting through every occurrence in baseball history and determined how often and how many runs have scored when these hits (and all other events like fly outs, strikeouts, HBP, errors, etc.) have been involved. These are the relative values, assigning a walk/HBP a vaue of one:
Single ~ 1.25
Double ~ 1.75
Triple ~ 2.25
HR ~ 2.75
Are you shocked that a homer is worth less than three walks and less than two-and-a-quarter singles? Part of the value of each of these accomplishments is in their ability to not cause an out, of which there are a finite number allotted each team per game.
And Now, To Actually Answer the Question
So back to slugging percentage. Clearly just adding up total bases to derive slugging percentage, and therefore OPS, glorifies yard barkers and diminishes the accomplishments of slap hitters. We documented this in March.
There are now better measures than slugging percentage and OPS that are defined by these linear weights. wOBA and True Average are one-stop shopping linear weights measurements of overall offensive performance that include park adjustments and other sanded edges, all rolled up into a number that looks like OBP (wOBA) or batting average (TAv). Here's an example of how wOBA can correct a misconception created by Max's slugging percentage discovery:
Last year, Adam Dunn produced an OPS 48% better than league average. That's awesome. But his wOBA was just .331 -- slightly better than average. Matt Carpenter, whose OPS was lower but whose hit distribution included many fewer home runs and many more singles, doubles (55) and triples (seven), produced a wOBA of .381.
In other words, OPS says Dunn was a great hitter last season and Carpenter a good one. wOBA shows us that Dunn was an above-average offensive performer while Carpenter was a downballot MVP candidate.
30 April 2014
Your Team Needs to Strike Out More
Do a web search on "2014 strikeouts" and you will find a parade of articles postulating about a jump in Ks this year.
"Seattle Mariners: Strikeout problem stalling offense"
"Where are all of the Johnny Cueto strikeouts coming from?"
"What's behind all those strikeouts for Joe Mauer?"
"Strikeouts galore for the 2014 Mets"
For the seventh consecutive year, the strikeout rate has risen in April, to more than one every five plate appearances. Roughly 16 batters whiff in an average nine-inning game.
Theorized reasons for this trend are myriad. Fastball velocity has risen over the years, from an average of 89.8 mph in 2008 to 91.4 mph this season, according to Beyond the Box Score. Chris Moran notes in this BTB article that 12 pitchers had averaged 94 mph in an April start last year. That number was 25 with half of April to go in 2014.
There are other factors as well. Batters are swinging more at balls outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside it. That may be due to improved catcher framing, which has become a subject of much more emphasis now that cameras are observing every pitch and recording the result. Analysis has discovered that catchers can alter a significant number of ball/strike calls in the course of a game because umps are more likely to call strikes on pitches caught by the catcher if he doesn't move to retrieve the throw.
From an aesthetic standpoint, most fans are not enamored of this development. Few people pay to see a lot of wind-making. From a strategic standpoint, it seems obvious that strikeouts are a negative event for the team at bat -- after all, they are outs. But in a more general sense, the evidence suggests that strikeouts are very necessary evils.
In fact, strikeouts are often a tradeoff. Batters who swing hard and wait for their pitch -- i.e., pass on pitches they don't like even if they're in the strike zone -- tend to whiff frequently. But that strategy yields more walks, fewer double plays and more home runs.
New research from the Hardball Times illustrates the actual correlations between strikeouts and other events. As you can see below, batters who fan more get on base slightly less (OBP) but hit for more power (SLG, ISO), ground into fewer twin killings (GIDP) and have a slightly higher batting average when they do make contact (BABIP), presumably because they hit the ball harder. On balance it's a positive tradeoff; more whiffs correlate with better overall hitting (wOBA).
Obviously there's a limit to that relationship; if every batter struck out there would be no OBP, SLG, HR or scoring at all. And Major League baseball may have reached that tipping point. Scoring has declined more or less steadily during the seven years that strikeouts have risen.
All this may be premature -- a blip on the season's radar. But as part of a larger trend, it's probably not. And that means more Ks and fewer Rs the rest of the way. You've been warned.
"Seattle Mariners: Strikeout problem stalling offense"
"Where are all of the Johnny Cueto strikeouts coming from?"
"What's behind all those strikeouts for Joe Mauer?"
"Strikeouts galore for the 2014 Mets"
For the seventh consecutive year, the strikeout rate has risen in April, to more than one every five plate appearances. Roughly 16 batters whiff in an average nine-inning game.
Theorized reasons for this trend are myriad. Fastball velocity has risen over the years, from an average of 89.8 mph in 2008 to 91.4 mph this season, according to Beyond the Box Score. Chris Moran notes in this BTB article that 12 pitchers had averaged 94 mph in an April start last year. That number was 25 with half of April to go in 2014.
There are other factors as well. Batters are swinging more at balls outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside it. That may be due to improved catcher framing, which has become a subject of much more emphasis now that cameras are observing every pitch and recording the result. Analysis has discovered that catchers can alter a significant number of ball/strike calls in the course of a game because umps are more likely to call strikes on pitches caught by the catcher if he doesn't move to retrieve the throw.
From an aesthetic standpoint, most fans are not enamored of this development. Few people pay to see a lot of wind-making. From a strategic standpoint, it seems obvious that strikeouts are a negative event for the team at bat -- after all, they are outs. But in a more general sense, the evidence suggests that strikeouts are very necessary evils.
In fact, strikeouts are often a tradeoff. Batters who swing hard and wait for their pitch -- i.e., pass on pitches they don't like even if they're in the strike zone -- tend to whiff frequently. But that strategy yields more walks, fewer double plays and more home runs.
New research from the Hardball Times illustrates the actual correlations between strikeouts and other events. As you can see below, batters who fan more get on base slightly less (OBP) but hit for more power (SLG, ISO), ground into fewer twin killings (GIDP) and have a slightly higher batting average when they do make contact (BABIP), presumably because they hit the ball harder. On balance it's a positive tradeoff; more whiffs correlate with better overall hitting (wOBA).
| Individual K rate and offensive statistic regression analysis | |
|---|---|
| Stat | Correlation (R) |
| OBP | -0.07 |
| SLG | 0.19 |
| ISO | 0.40 |
| wOBA | 0.10 |
| GIDP | -0.22 |
| IFH | -0.27 |
| HR/FB | 0.53 |
| IFFB% | -0.16 |
| GB% | -0.28 |
| FB% | 0.31 |
| BABIP | 0.08 |
| BB% | 0.28 |
Obviously there's a limit to that relationship; if every batter struck out there would be no OBP, SLG, HR or scoring at all. And Major League baseball may have reached that tipping point. Scoring has declined more or less steadily during the seven years that strikeouts have risen.
All this may be premature -- a blip on the season's radar. But as part of a larger trend, it's probably not. And that means more Ks and fewer Rs the rest of the way. You've been warned.
28 April 2014
Things You Find While Researching Other Things...
If you look up Eddie Murray in Baseball-Reference.com, it will tell you that the silent slugger was nicknamed Steady Eddie. I never heard anyone ever call him that, but there could not have been a more apt nickname.
Consider Murray's home run totals from 1977 to 1990: 27, 27, 25, 32, 22 (strike-shortened season), 32, 33, 29, 31, 17 (missed 30 games due to injury), 30, 28, 20, 26. He averaged 27 home runs and was within two of that number seven times.
Twenty-six Major Leaguers have cleared the 500 home run bar and none other had a career high as low as 33. Murray joined the club with a steady drumbeat of slugging. Bonds slammed 73, McGwire 70, Sosa 68, Ruth 60, Foxx 58, Mays 52, Aaron 47 . . . even Frank Thomas, another steady eddie, pounded more than 33 homers eight times, with a high of 43.
It wasn't just long balls. Consider Murray's doubles totals through 1996: 29, 32, 30, 36, 21, 30, 30, 26, 37, 25, 28, 27, 29, 22, 23, 37, 28, 21, 21, 21
He hit better (by OPS) than league average 1978-1988: 40%, 30%, 38%, 56%, 56%, 56%, 57%, 49%, 36%, 20%, 36%.
So which was Eddie Murray's best season? In 1984, he led the league with 107 walks and a .410 OBP, en route to that 157 OPS+. He finished fourth in the MVP voting. The year before he finished second, powered by a higher OPS and a .306-33-111 season. Was it 1982, another 156 OPS+ season, another runner-up MVP showing, when he posted an OPS another 10 points higher and a .316-32-110 tally. Or 1990, when he hit .330 in Dodger Stadium or 1985's 31 homers, 37 doubles and a career high 124 RBI?
From his Rookie of the Year award through his age 34 season, Eddie Murray had his best year every year and continued to be a productive player until he turned 40.
26 April 2014
Second on First? How Great Is Albert's Career?
As you are no doubt aware, Albert Pujols entered the 500 HR club last week and then entered the 500+ HR club the next day. Prince Albert leads the AL in HR and slugging percentage at this very early stage, a welcome contrast to his last two seasons of decline and lost greatness.
Before that, of course, Pujols was a historically spectacular hitter for the first decade of his career, averaging .331/.426/.624 with 41 homers each year. Injuries and age have conspired to undermine him both at bat and afield just as he was inking a gargantuan new deal with Anaheim. Because he's been eclipsed by the likes of Cabrera, Trout and McCutchen, and because his team has sagged into mid-standings, we've been forgetting what an all-time great Pujols is even if he hangs up the uniform and forgoes the $189 million awaiting him through age 41.
In fact, when you start ranking first baseman, you get to Albert pretty fast. It's fair to say he is currently the third best cold cornerman of all time and might be second if he keeps this up.
The Iron Horse is in a class by himself, of course. In a career shortened by, well, death, Lou Gehrig added 112 wins against replacement, hit 79% better than average and finished in the top five in MVP voting eight times.
The careers of Jimmie Foxx and Johnny Mize overlapped with Gehrig's and they also towered over their contemporaries. Despite losing three prime seasons to WWII, likely worth about 20 WAR to his record, Mize piled up 71 WAR, hitting 58% above league average. You could make a good case fort Mize as fourth best all time.
Foxx, the quintessential slugger after Ruth and Gehrig, compiled 96 WAR and led the AL in OPS five times.
In fact, Foxx and Pujols are pretty good comparables:
Foxx -- .325/.428/.609
Pujols -- . 321/.409/.599 (so far)
Foxx -- OPS+ = 163; 96.4 WAR
Pujols -- OPS+ = 165; 94.2 WAR (so far)
Foxx -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 4
Pujols -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 10 (so far)
Best 10 Seasons
Foxx -- .335/.440/.635; 41 HR; 171 OPS+
Pujols -- .331/.426/.624; 41 HR; 172 OPS+
Pujols is a better fielder and baserunner but Foxx showed a glint of Ruthian pitching prowess. In 1939 he threw a hitless ninth in a game for the Red Sox, recording one strikeout. Then in 1945, the Phils let him pitch nine times. In 23 innings he limited batters to 13 hits and four earned runs for a 1.59 ERA. (Pay no attention to the 14 walks and 10 strikeouts.) Take your pick now but Albert has an opportunity to surpass Double-X in short order.
After them, it falls off quickly. Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Willie McCovery, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Greenberg, Frank Thomas and Mark McGwire are among the next group of greats, but Pujols has already eclipsed them all. Unless these few weeks have been the last embers of Phat Albert's fire and we're to be subjected to seven years of padding, he's entering the Hall of Fame as the second greatest first baseman ever.
Before that, of course, Pujols was a historically spectacular hitter for the first decade of his career, averaging .331/.426/.624 with 41 homers each year. Injuries and age have conspired to undermine him both at bat and afield just as he was inking a gargantuan new deal with Anaheim. Because he's been eclipsed by the likes of Cabrera, Trout and McCutchen, and because his team has sagged into mid-standings, we've been forgetting what an all-time great Pujols is even if he hangs up the uniform and forgoes the $189 million awaiting him through age 41.
In fact, when you start ranking first baseman, you get to Albert pretty fast. It's fair to say he is currently the third best cold cornerman of all time and might be second if he keeps this up.
The Iron Horse is in a class by himself, of course. In a career shortened by, well, death, Lou Gehrig added 112 wins against replacement, hit 79% better than average and finished in the top five in MVP voting eight times.
The careers of Jimmie Foxx and Johnny Mize overlapped with Gehrig's and they also towered over their contemporaries. Despite losing three prime seasons to WWII, likely worth about 20 WAR to his record, Mize piled up 71 WAR, hitting 58% above league average. You could make a good case fort Mize as fourth best all time.
Foxx, the quintessential slugger after Ruth and Gehrig, compiled 96 WAR and led the AL in OPS five times.
In fact, Foxx and Pujols are pretty good comparables:
Foxx -- .325/.428/.609
Pujols -- . 321/.409/.599 (so far)
Foxx -- OPS+ = 163; 96.4 WAR
Pujols -- OPS+ = 165; 94.2 WAR (so far)
Foxx -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 4
Pujols -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 10 (so far)
Best 10 Seasons
Foxx -- .335/.440/.635; 41 HR; 171 OPS+
Pujols -- .331/.426/.624; 41 HR; 172 OPS+
Pujols is a better fielder and baserunner but Foxx showed a glint of Ruthian pitching prowess. In 1939 he threw a hitless ninth in a game for the Red Sox, recording one strikeout. Then in 1945, the Phils let him pitch nine times. In 23 innings he limited batters to 13 hits and four earned runs for a 1.59 ERA. (Pay no attention to the 14 walks and 10 strikeouts.) Take your pick now but Albert has an opportunity to surpass Double-X in short order.
After them, it falls off quickly. Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Willie McCovery, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Greenberg, Frank Thomas and Mark McGwire are among the next group of greats, but Pujols has already eclipsed them all. Unless these few weeks have been the last embers of Phat Albert's fire and we're to be subjected to seven years of padding, he's entering the Hall of Fame as the second greatest first baseman ever.
20 April 2014
Isn't April Great!
Twins keystoner Brian Dozier has 13 hits this year in 67 at bats, a .194 batting average. Yet he paces the junior circuit in runs scored with 18. That's the power of 13 walks.
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The Big Donkey had an uncharacteristic Little Gnat kind of game Saturday. He batted four times, hit three singles and stole a base. He neither walked nor struck out.
Over 1884 career games, Adam Dunn has walked, struck out or homered in exactly half his plate appearances. He has singled less than 10% of the time. And he has swiped all of six bases, including Saturday's, over the last six years. Based on his career, the odds of hitting three singles and stealing a base were roughly one in 150,000. But Saturday, it happened.
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Pirate outfielder Pedro Alvarez has hit safely 11 times so far this season. Six of those hits have left the yard. Despite batting .157, Alvarez is second in the NL in RBIs with 18.
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Some of the beauty of baseball lies in watching the emergence of new stars. Over the course of this season, fans will have the pleasure of witnessing the talents of some young stud or another.
We might start with the youngest player in the game, a mere 21-year-old. In his previous two seasons of pro ball he's batted .272/.354/.481 with 42 homers, 29 steals and sterling outfield defense. So far this season in the majors, it's been more of the same.
He's not yet a complete work, this youth. His new manager, discomfited with his nonchalance on the basepaths, pulled him from a game against the Cardinals Saturday. They'll both get over it and the youngster will get back to the outfield Sunday, newly humbled, to wreck more havoc against the opposition.
Keep that context in mind when you consider the news about Bryce Harper. Two hundred seventy-three games into his career, he remains the youngest player in the game.
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Tim Hudson continues to deliver, even at age 39. In 30 innings so far, he's recorded 20 strikeouts. His next walk will be his first. That's a K/BB rate of, um, infinity.
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A 30-year-old first baseman named Chris Colabello, with three doubles in 160 MLB at bats on his MLB resume entering the season, presently paces the majors with nine two-baggers. He's hitting .359 and leading the AL in RBIs.
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Isn't April great!
19 April 2014
It's All Over But the Shouting
Here we are, one-tenth of the way into the season and it all seems to have been decided.
The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.
It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted.
This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.)
Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross. Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.
This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.
That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.
The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.
Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.
The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.
It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted.
This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.)
Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross. Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.
This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.
That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.
The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.
Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.
15 April 2014
How It All Went Wrong Fast in Philly Last Night
They made history in Philly last night -- and not just a little bit. And no one could have predicted it going into the eighth inning.
At that point, the two starters and two relievers had combined on a 2-1 affair, with all the runs coming on dingers by Ryan Howard and Evan Gattis. Bravers starter Ervin Santana was in line for the win, sporting a dandy six innings of four-hit ball with two walks and 11 punch outs.
It got quickly better as reliever BJ Rosenberg put his name in the record books. He faced three batters and the results looked like this: Evan Gattis - home run; Dan Uggla - home run; Andrelton Simmons - home run; now pitching, Luis Garcia. Atlanta led 5-1.
Luis Avilan joined Rosenberg by allowing a walk, three hits and a three-run jack to Dominic Brown in a five run eighth that put Philadelphia ahead 6-5. Spoiler alert: Avilan got the win -- the first time in 80 years that a pitcher earned the W with five earned runs in one frame.
Jake Diekman came in for the Phils to finish it off and proceeded to strike out the side. Unfortunately for him, that came after he walked the Upton family en route to an Uggla grand slam. Uggla and Gattis combined for four hits in 10 trips to the plate -- all four of them home runs.
And that's how a 2-1 game after seven became a 9-6 final whose winning pitcher had the worst performance of the night.
At that point, the two starters and two relievers had combined on a 2-1 affair, with all the runs coming on dingers by Ryan Howard and Evan Gattis. Bravers starter Ervin Santana was in line for the win, sporting a dandy six innings of four-hit ball with two walks and 11 punch outs.
It got quickly better as reliever BJ Rosenberg put his name in the record books. He faced three batters and the results looked like this: Evan Gattis - home run; Dan Uggla - home run; Andrelton Simmons - home run; now pitching, Luis Garcia. Atlanta led 5-1.
Luis Avilan joined Rosenberg by allowing a walk, three hits and a three-run jack to Dominic Brown in a five run eighth that put Philadelphia ahead 6-5. Spoiler alert: Avilan got the win -- the first time in 80 years that a pitcher earned the W with five earned runs in one frame.
Jake Diekman came in for the Phils to finish it off and proceeded to strike out the side. Unfortunately for him, that came after he walked the Upton family en route to an Uggla grand slam. Uggla and Gattis combined for four hits in 10 trips to the plate -- all four of them home runs.
And that's how a 2-1 game after seven became a 9-6 final whose winning pitcher had the worst performance of the night.
14 April 2014
A Quick Scamper Around the Basepaths
Here is a one-question IQ test.
Which is better:
1. Running out a ground ball and getting thrown out at first.
2. Getting thrown out at first while diving into the bag thereby tearing a ligament in your thumb and missing six-to-eight weeks.
Sorry Mr. Hamilton: you failed the test. You'll have to return to the disabled list.
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When Paul Goldschmidt took Tim Lincecum yard in a weekend affair, it shocked absolutely no one. The Diamondback slugger has stepped to the plate 24 times against The Freak. He has 13 hits. Seven of them have left the ballpark.
Tim? Does the term "intentional walk" mean anything to you?
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Charlie Blackmon update: When last we visited with the Rockies' lefty-hitting centerfielder, he was crushing the ball. He's cooled way off -- to .488/.500/.707, with just two whiffs in 44 visits to the plate.
He does lead the majors in triples. With one.
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For last Monday's home tilt against the Angels, the then 3-3 Astros, coming off a spanking of the same Anaheim squad the previous day, drew a zero rating on television. According to Neilson, not a soul in the Houston metro area watched a Monday afternoon game featuring, if not anyone of interest on the home side, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson.
That zero is 17,936 less than the number of people who witnessed it live.
It's actually the second zero rating for the American League's worst team. They pulled a zilch in a late September contest against Cleveland last season. But at least that one followed 14 straight losses and had to compete head-on with a Texans game.
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Here's some good Astro news: Hurler Scott Feldman has allowed a run on seven hits -- in three starts. That 0.44 ERA looks really shiny . . . until you discover that he's walked eight fanned seven and hit five batters in 21 innings.
Feldman's ERA (0.44) is among the league's best. His strikeout rate (3.0/game) close to the worst. If one of them doesn't change soon, the other will.
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In 46 plate appearances so far, Phillies second-sacker Chase Utley has gotten aboard safely 26 times and pounded nine extra base hits. That's positively Bondsian . . . except Barry was seven years older and did it over a whole season.
Which is better:
1. Running out a ground ball and getting thrown out at first.
2. Getting thrown out at first while diving into the bag thereby tearing a ligament in your thumb and missing six-to-eight weeks.
Sorry Mr. Hamilton: you failed the test. You'll have to return to the disabled list.
------------------------------------------------------
When Paul Goldschmidt took Tim Lincecum yard in a weekend affair, it shocked absolutely no one. The Diamondback slugger has stepped to the plate 24 times against The Freak. He has 13 hits. Seven of them have left the ballpark.
Tim? Does the term "intentional walk" mean anything to you?
------------------------------------------------------
Charlie Blackmon update: When last we visited with the Rockies' lefty-hitting centerfielder, he was crushing the ball. He's cooled way off -- to .488/.500/.707, with just two whiffs in 44 visits to the plate.
He does lead the majors in triples. With one.
------------------------------------------------------
For last Monday's home tilt against the Angels, the then 3-3 Astros, coming off a spanking of the same Anaheim squad the previous day, drew a zero rating on television. According to Neilson, not a soul in the Houston metro area watched a Monday afternoon game featuring, if not anyone of interest on the home side, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson.
That zero is 17,936 less than the number of people who witnessed it live.
It's actually the second zero rating for the American League's worst team. They pulled a zilch in a late September contest against Cleveland last season. But at least that one followed 14 straight losses and had to compete head-on with a Texans game.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's some good Astro news: Hurler Scott Feldman has allowed a run on seven hits -- in three starts. That 0.44 ERA looks really shiny . . . until you discover that he's walked eight fanned seven and hit five batters in 21 innings.
Feldman's ERA (0.44) is among the league's best. His strikeout rate (3.0/game) close to the worst. If one of them doesn't change soon, the other will.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
In 46 plate appearances so far, Phillies second-sacker Chase Utley has gotten aboard safely 26 times and pounded nine extra base hits. That's positively Bondsian . . . except Barry was seven years older and did it over a whole season.
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