Denis Leary and his New England compadres are happy this week. New Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski landed seven years of David "High" Price for $217 million of John Henry's monies.* They have reason to cheer: Boston lagged the AL in pitching last year, accounting for its cellar-dwelling in the East. Adding Price to lockdown closer Craig Kimbrel, the Beaneaters appear much improved for next season.
*There's an opt-out clause for the hurler after three years but he's less likely to exercise it than previous players with mid-contract options because his deal is backloaded.
This is a good signing for the best mound option on the market, with all due respect to Zack Greinke. Price's track record is not just superb, it's consistent and it's mostly been accomplished in the Red Sox's division.
But if you want to dance the jig for a great pitcher signing, go to Detroit. Jordan Zimmermann can now buy all the vowels he needs with a shiny new five-year, $110 million contract.
Consider that: The Red Sox get David Price for two more years -- presumably his worst two -- at an additional cost of $107 million.
Let's consider the tale of the tape over the last five years:
Pitcher Age ERA ERA+ INN WAR
Zimmermann 29 3.14 123 971 19.5
Price 29 3.02 127 1090 23.0
David Price is a better pitcher than Jordan Zimmermann. He's bigger, stronger and more durable. He's left-handed. He's spent his entire career in the tougher-hitting league. And he's lauded for his clubhouse demeanor.
A win against replacement is worth roughly $8 million these days, give or take my net assets. If the past five years are an indication of their future performance, Price is worth about $28 million more over five years than Zimmermann. But the Red Sox will pay him $107 million more for those five and his age 36 and 37 seasons. Let's call him an average starter those two years and say a win is worth $10 million in 2021. That's still only about half the difference.
It's not surprising that this deal tilts towards the team (but hardly away from the player. He is after all, guaranteed a million dollars 110 times over.) Early free agent signings tend to set the stage for more lucrative contracts after them. Even accounting for that, the Tigers got themselves a great get.
Everything went sideways at Comerica last season to land the team in the Central basement, and they still have some home improvements before they can pronounce themselves cured for 2016. Signing Zimmermann gives them a frontline starter they badly needed and plenty of leftover liquidity to purchase a bullpen, a catcher and another starter.
Showing posts with label David Price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Price. Show all posts
02 December 2015
04 October 2015
The Too Close To Call
As a young adult, I felt it was my civic duty to investigate every policy issue facing our country and have an informed opinion on each. As I've aged, this need has ebbed, and I'm now perfectly comfortable not having an opinion on some complex issues. I can continue to cast informed votes on representatives and referenda without possessing exhaustive knowledge of every issue upon which they must rule.
When it comes to baseball awards, however, that's exactly the demand we make of voters. They must have a definitive opinion on who is the MVP or the Rookie of the Year, etc. But this year, there is one race in which it's just impossible to distinguish between a couple of candidates.
The AL Cy Young contest pits David Price's Blue Jay brilliance, following a trade from Detroit, against Astro ace Dallas Keuchel, whose season-long excellence stumbled a bit in September.
For the season, Keuchel's 20-8, 2.48 is Cy-worthy. Price is right too -- 18-5, 2.45.
Accounting for ballparks, Keuchel leads in ERA+, 162-161. In other words, the two pitchers allowed the same number of runs.
Price's 4.70 K/BB ratio is slightly superior to Keuchel's 4.24. Pitchers can't control anything as much as they can control walks and strikeouts. So that's a relative feather in Price's ball cap.
Keuchel owns a small edge in WHIP, 1.017-1.076. He's allowing fewer base runners. Because they keep the ball in the park at the same rate, that's one for Keuchel.
Keuchel has pitched 12 more innings, 232-220, which partially accounts for his superior WAR of 7.2 versus Price's 5.9.
The various defensive metrics generally like Houston's defense behind Keuchel better than Detroit and Toronto's defense behind Price. That might partially explain why teams scored 10 unearned runs against Price and only four against Keuchel. Those runs don't show up in ERA. That would seem to tilt towards Keuchel.
But fielding independent pitching measures -- about which you should be a little leery -- suggest Price has "earned" a 2.78 ERA; Keuchel has earned a 2.91.
Now, you make sense of all that. About the only thing we can say about the best pitcher in the American League this year is that it's Dallas Keuchel and David Price. (Oakland's Sonny Gray, 14-7, 2.73, is next best, but he tailed off by summer's end and pretty clearly fell out of the race.) Writers who split their votes are disdained for their indecision, or lack of guts, but in this case I think it's not just defensible, its indicated.
When it comes to baseball awards, however, that's exactly the demand we make of voters. They must have a definitive opinion on who is the MVP or the Rookie of the Year, etc. But this year, there is one race in which it's just impossible to distinguish between a couple of candidates.
The AL Cy Young contest pits David Price's Blue Jay brilliance, following a trade from Detroit, against Astro ace Dallas Keuchel, whose season-long excellence stumbled a bit in September.
For the season, Keuchel's 20-8, 2.48 is Cy-worthy. Price is right too -- 18-5, 2.45.
Accounting for ballparks, Keuchel leads in ERA+, 162-161. In other words, the two pitchers allowed the same number of runs.
Price's 4.70 K/BB ratio is slightly superior to Keuchel's 4.24. Pitchers can't control anything as much as they can control walks and strikeouts. So that's a relative feather in Price's ball cap.
Keuchel owns a small edge in WHIP, 1.017-1.076. He's allowing fewer base runners. Because they keep the ball in the park at the same rate, that's one for Keuchel.
Keuchel has pitched 12 more innings, 232-220, which partially accounts for his superior WAR of 7.2 versus Price's 5.9.
The various defensive metrics generally like Houston's defense behind Keuchel better than Detroit and Toronto's defense behind Price. That might partially explain why teams scored 10 unearned runs against Price and only four against Keuchel. Those runs don't show up in ERA. That would seem to tilt towards Keuchel.
But fielding independent pitching measures -- about which you should be a little leery -- suggest Price has "earned" a 2.78 ERA; Keuchel has earned a 2.91.
Now, you make sense of all that. About the only thing we can say about the best pitcher in the American League this year is that it's Dallas Keuchel and David Price. (Oakland's Sonny Gray, 14-7, 2.73, is next best, but he tailed off by summer's end and pretty clearly fell out of the race.) Writers who split their votes are disdained for their indecision, or lack of guts, but in this case I think it's not just defensible, its indicated.
15 August 2015
A Good Decision That Didn't Work
What's the difference between a good decision and a bad one? If you said a good one works out well and a bad one doesn't, you're exactly wrong.
If we knew the outcomes of our decisions for sure, they wouldn't be decisions. I don't "decide" to brush my teeth in the hopes that I'll remove food and plaque; I brush them -- every single week, sometimes twice -- because I know that will be the result.
A good decision is one made for good reasons, free from irrational emotion and based on a thorough accounting of the facts, the best understanding possible of the potential outcomes and a reasonable estimation of their odds. Baked into that equation is the possibility of failure.
That brings us to a decision by Blue Jays manager John Gibbons on Friday that cost Toronto the lead, the game and first place during their tilt with the Yankees. Gibbons is being excoriated both for not replacing ace starter David Price to start the eighth inning and for pulling him four batters later.
Price took the mound for the eighth time that night with a 3-0 cushion and 90-something pitches thrown. The unflappable lefty, whom Toronto had coaxed from Detroit in a deadline deal for just these kinds of weighty encounters, has a demonstrated ability to go 110-120 pitches deep into a game. Leaving him in was perfectly defensible.
With one out, Price hit the skids. He surrendered three straight hits, including Chase Headley's run-scoring double that left runners on second and third and the go-ahead run at the plate. With 112 pitches thrown, Gibbons exercised the hook and inserted right-hander Aaron Sanchez to face righty Chris Young.
It's likely that Gibbons knew pulling Price would bring switch-hitter Carlos Beltran in to pinch-hit. The 18-year veteran has no platoon splits to speak of -- he gets on base slightly more from the left side and hits with a little more power from the right. For what little it's worth, he was a dumpster fire batting against lefties last season.
Price had become ineffective. The pitch count was starting to matter. Sanchez had been turning out the lights for the previous several weeks, allowing one run in his previous 11 appearances. It was a perfectly defensible decision, and probably the right one.
It just didn't work out. Beltran socked a two-strike pitch into the seats to give the Yankees the lead, the win and first place.
There was a lot of talk in Baseball land about those two decisions, particularly the switch. It's all made with hindsight. Gibbons makes dozens of decisions each game and on the difficulty barometer, this one was not very high up. He played the odds, bet the seven and came up snake eyes. It was still the right decision.
If we knew the outcomes of our decisions for sure, they wouldn't be decisions. I don't "decide" to brush my teeth in the hopes that I'll remove food and plaque; I brush them -- every single week, sometimes twice -- because I know that will be the result.
A good decision is one made for good reasons, free from irrational emotion and based on a thorough accounting of the facts, the best understanding possible of the potential outcomes and a reasonable estimation of their odds. Baked into that equation is the possibility of failure.
That brings us to a decision by Blue Jays manager John Gibbons on Friday that cost Toronto the lead, the game and first place during their tilt with the Yankees. Gibbons is being excoriated both for not replacing ace starter David Price to start the eighth inning and for pulling him four batters later.
Price took the mound for the eighth time that night with a 3-0 cushion and 90-something pitches thrown. The unflappable lefty, whom Toronto had coaxed from Detroit in a deadline deal for just these kinds of weighty encounters, has a demonstrated ability to go 110-120 pitches deep into a game. Leaving him in was perfectly defensible.
With one out, Price hit the skids. He surrendered three straight hits, including Chase Headley's run-scoring double that left runners on second and third and the go-ahead run at the plate. With 112 pitches thrown, Gibbons exercised the hook and inserted right-hander Aaron Sanchez to face righty Chris Young.
It's likely that Gibbons knew pulling Price would bring switch-hitter Carlos Beltran in to pinch-hit. The 18-year veteran has no platoon splits to speak of -- he gets on base slightly more from the left side and hits with a little more power from the right. For what little it's worth, he was a dumpster fire batting against lefties last season.
Price had become ineffective. The pitch count was starting to matter. Sanchez had been turning out the lights for the previous several weeks, allowing one run in his previous 11 appearances. It was a perfectly defensible decision, and probably the right one.
It just didn't work out. Beltran socked a two-strike pitch into the seats to give the Yankees the lead, the win and first place.
There was a lot of talk in Baseball land about those two decisions, particularly the switch. It's all made with hindsight. Gibbons makes dozens of decisions each game and on the difficulty barometer, this one was not very high up. He played the odds, bet the seven and came up snake eyes. It was still the right decision.
21 June 2014
Parity Begins at Home
The derision funneled Seattle's way for rolling out the golden carpet to free agents Robinson Cano and Fernando Rodney, and making fat-wallet pitches to several others, has stood the test of half a season. The weak-hitting Mariners are bobbing along at two games over .500, a million games behind the Oakland steamroller.
But those two acquisitions have a middling team in the middle of the playoff hunt. On the first day of summer, Seattle stands two games out of the Wild Card, part of an eight-team scrum.
Except for Oakland and Toronto on the plus-side and Houston and Tampa Bay in the negative, the entire American League is within three games of even. That means that Cleveland, who can't win on the road; Detroit, who've lost 20 of 30; and Boston, who dropped 10, won seven and lost five straight; are all still very much in the mix.
Ditto in the senior circuit. The Dbacks, Padres, Mets and Cubs have recused themselves from the 2014 playoffs, but it's a free-for-all besides that. In the NL East, the phading, phourth-place Phils are phour notches under .500, the phiphth-worst team in the NL. And they're just 3.5 games shy of their division's lead.
It makes the competition wondrous for fans, not so much for general managers. If you're the last-place White Sox, are you buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? You're just five games out of the lead in the AL Central. How about the Yankees, currently in the lead for a Wild Card, but living large off luck and bracing for the next cascade of injuries to your geriatric club?
If you're the Rays, you're plying every contender, pretender and upender with visions of David Price hurling them to victory. There could be a long line vying for trade bait capable of helping a team win that extra game or two.
But those two acquisitions have a middling team in the middle of the playoff hunt. On the first day of summer, Seattle stands two games out of the Wild Card, part of an eight-team scrum.
Except for Oakland and Toronto on the plus-side and Houston and Tampa Bay in the negative, the entire American League is within three games of even. That means that Cleveland, who can't win on the road; Detroit, who've lost 20 of 30; and Boston, who dropped 10, won seven and lost five straight; are all still very much in the mix.
Ditto in the senior circuit. The Dbacks, Padres, Mets and Cubs have recused themselves from the 2014 playoffs, but it's a free-for-all besides that. In the NL East, the phading, phourth-place Phils are phour notches under .500, the phiphth-worst team in the NL. And they're just 3.5 games shy of their division's lead.
It makes the competition wondrous for fans, not so much for general managers. If you're the last-place White Sox, are you buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? You're just five games out of the lead in the AL Central. How about the Yankees, currently in the lead for a Wild Card, but living large off luck and bracing for the next cascade of injuries to your geriatric club?
If you're the Rays, you're plying every contender, pretender and upender with visions of David Price hurling them to victory. There could be a long line vying for trade bait capable of helping a team win that extra game or two.
11 May 2014
Stuff You Didn't Know
Padres Production
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
13 October 2012
Meet the New Boss; Same As the Old Boss
Q. What do you get when you put the worst defense behind the best pitcher?
A. Another Cy Young award.
That, in a nutshell, is Justin Verlander's 2012, another data point in his developing Hall of Fame resume. Prior to the season, I wrote that Roy Halladay remained baseball's best moundsman until he was dethroned. Consider the coup complete.
The Tigers without Verlander don't only fail to win their division or make the playoffs, they struggle to win half their games. Verlander was not only the best pitcher in the American League this year, he led the Majors in innings pitched, which means we was the best, the most, and consequently he rated first in baseball in pitcher value over replacement player. He placed second in the league in ERA despite a no-glove infield, second in WHIP and strikeout-walk ratio, and first in strikeouts, complete games, shutouts and quality starts.
Like the Venus de Milo, the numbers only represent part of the story. Justin Verlander is the unquestioned leader of the Tigers. He wants the ball every fifth day and he considers relief pitching a sign of weakness to be avoided. For the first half of the season, he was Detroit's only reliable arm. He's the best pitcher in the AL once again, and once again it isn't close.
All of which serves to overshadow the wonderful seasons posted by Tampa Bay's David Price (20-5, 2.56 in 211 innings, 25 quality starts and 205 strikeouts); the White Sox's Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05 in his first year as a starter, with 192 strikeouts in 192 innings); Seattle's Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 for an offensively-null team and 223 strikeouts in 232 innings); Anaheim's Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81 and leading the league in WHIP in 189 innings and 21 quality starts) and Yankee CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 in 200 innings of work in an offensive-friendly park).
In particular, it obscures the remarkable accomplishments of Jered Weaver in his still young career. The 6'7" Californian is now 102-52, 3.24 lifetime, and having just turned 30, there's plenty left in that right arm. In seven seasons, he's pitched to ERAs below 3.10 four times, with 20+ quality starts each of the past four seasons. Not viewed as an ace until recently, Weaver has earned his third straight top-5 Cy Young finish this year.
In the next post, I'll tell you whether R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw should win the NL Cy Young award.
A. Another Cy Young award.
That, in a nutshell, is Justin Verlander's 2012, another data point in his developing Hall of Fame resume. Prior to the season, I wrote that Roy Halladay remained baseball's best moundsman until he was dethroned. Consider the coup complete.
The Tigers without Verlander don't only fail to win their division or make the playoffs, they struggle to win half their games. Verlander was not only the best pitcher in the American League this year, he led the Majors in innings pitched, which means we was the best, the most, and consequently he rated first in baseball in pitcher value over replacement player. He placed second in the league in ERA despite a no-glove infield, second in WHIP and strikeout-walk ratio, and first in strikeouts, complete games, shutouts and quality starts.
Like the Venus de Milo, the numbers only represent part of the story. Justin Verlander is the unquestioned leader of the Tigers. He wants the ball every fifth day and he considers relief pitching a sign of weakness to be avoided. For the first half of the season, he was Detroit's only reliable arm. He's the best pitcher in the AL once again, and once again it isn't close.
All of which serves to overshadow the wonderful seasons posted by Tampa Bay's David Price (20-5, 2.56 in 211 innings, 25 quality starts and 205 strikeouts); the White Sox's Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05 in his first year as a starter, with 192 strikeouts in 192 innings); Seattle's Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 for an offensively-null team and 223 strikeouts in 232 innings); Anaheim's Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81 and leading the league in WHIP in 189 innings and 21 quality starts) and Yankee CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 in 200 innings of work in an offensive-friendly park).
In particular, it obscures the remarkable accomplishments of Jered Weaver in his still young career. The 6'7" Californian is now 102-52, 3.24 lifetime, and having just turned 30, there's plenty left in that right arm. In seven seasons, he's pitched to ERAs below 3.10 four times, with 20+ quality starts each of the past four seasons. Not viewed as an ace until recently, Weaver has earned his third straight top-5 Cy Young finish this year.
In the next post, I'll tell you whether R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw should win the NL Cy Young award.
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