In Defense of the Player Opt-Out

If, after year three of his nine-year, $205 million contract with the New York Yankees, CC Sabathia had cashed in his opt-out clause at the age of 30, having accumulated Top 5 Cy Young finishes in each of the previous six seasons, would the deal have worked out poorly for the Yankees? 

They would have paid him $63 million for 18.3 WAR, well below market rate, and enjoyed the fruits of the top-of-the-rotation workhorse they wanted when they inked the deal. Sabathia, riding a wave of great performance and still young enough to command wagon-loads of legal tender, would have been wise to latch on elsewhere for more than the $142 million owed to him.

And he would have saved New York a big sunk cost. In the four seasons since the imagined opt out, his ERA has ballooned to 4.01, 5.20, 6.07 and 4.95, earning just 3.6 wins over four years and showing the decrepitude that comes with turning 34 while your waistline turns 50. The pinstripes still owe him $50 million for his age-35 and 36 seasons, neither of which figures to be pretty.

Player Options In the News
The question of player opt-outs has come to the fore after several recent signings in which players have won early opt-outs as signing sweeteners. The Giants threw in an opt-out after just two seasons of Johnny Cueto's six-year, $130 million deal. That would seem to put the 29-year-old hurler in the primo position of seeking further riches after impressing while he's still young.

But what's good for one side isn't necessarily bad for the other. Unless the contract is heavily front-loaded, the team can prosper when the player finds another suitor. Should Cueto continue his NL mastery in 2016 and 2017, the Giants would have enjoyed those two seasons at market prices and let some greater fool pay for Cueto's age 37 season.

Don't Clubs Assume All the Risk With Player Options?
It's been pointed out that players accept the guaranteed money only when poor performance (or injuries) inhibit their ability to command more on the open market, leaving the original signing team holding the bloated contract. But that's the contract the team would have signed anyway, opt-out or not. Most of these deals figure to diminish in value each marginal year, meaning an opt-out might be a gift from heaven. (I'd like the Cueto opt-out significantly better for the Giants if it came a year later. He figures to still be plenty effective at 31.)

There's an opportunity cost when the player leaves -- i.e., the team has to replace the ace with someone else, and if he's similar quality to the guy leaving, he'll cost a bundle too. But players opting out of free agent contracts are almost by definition entering their dotage (Cueto will be unusually young when his option kicks in), while the replacement, even another free agent recruit, can be several key years younger.

The Contrary Case of Zack Greinke
The Dodgers can't be thrilled that Zack Greinke exercised his option to bolt after three awesome seasons of 51-15, 2.48 for the stacks of Benjamins offered by the division rival Diamondbacks. Greinke increased his annual haul by millions and L.A. is back down to one mound ace. But we'll see how it works out for Arizona at $34 million/year as Greinke ages. Past results do not guarantee future performance, especially in the fickle sport of 162 game seasons.

If player options mean that teams are in effect signing free agents to just a few good years and then watching them depart, well, that might not break many GM hearts. It's not the optimal scenario certainly, because the disaster signings will hang around to fester. But if it gets your team the big star in the first place, it might be a small price to pay, smaller even than paying mega-millions for former superstars in their sub-replacement age 37 seasons.

A Red Letter Day for Royals

Theirs is a most unusual, perhaps even unique formula for winning: no power, no starting pitching; all relief pitching and defense. The Royals are like a man with two broken legs who walks very fast on his hands. It's not that it can't be done; it's just not the way most do it, primarily because it's really hard.

Conventional playoff wisdom demands at least one ace, if not two, which is two more than Kansas City had. So, with an eye towards October, which GM Dayton Moore's club is now seven games closer to than their division rivals, they boldly swung a deal for Johnny Cueto. It feels like a quintessential win-win, even if it doesn't work out well for anyone.

Even with a third of a season of Cueto, the Royals still appear light on the mound in the first six frames of every game. Nabbing Cueto, who has hurled 1,000 innings of 2.72 ERA over the last five years, increases the already favorable odds (at least relatively speaking) of re-capturing the AL crown.

KC was a popular choice for the AL Central basement this year. Banking on reprised performances from a relief corps is a fools errand, and although defense tends to be less fickle than hitting, even a small dip in the field would have doomed the punchless Royals. Somehow, though, they've bottled lightning and charged to the top of the standings.

If you thought Kansas City was talent-challenged before this season, wait until Alex Gordon leaves after it's over. Between that and the unpredictability of their hitting, the Royals could return to perpetual doormat status starting in 2016. So it makes sense that Moore wanted to strike while the iron was hot.

It seems like they gave up a lot of future value for Cueto. No one ever knows with prospects, but 22-year-old Brandon Finnegan was a first-round pick who is pitching like one, now with the big club. John Lamb, a once-and-future Minor League star following TJ surgery, and semi-prospect Cody Reed, round out the deal. It seems like a nice haul for Cincinnati in exchange for 12 starts from a pitcher who can choose his hometown after the last wisps of the World Series trail off into the ether.

So the Royals make a run for it while they can and the Reds stockpile arms at essentially no cost. It's a good deal for both teams. Now we'll have to see whether the gods smile upon either or both ends.

Let's Hear It for the Sister Kisser

It's difficult to talk NL pitching without meandering back to the subject of Clayton Kershaw, the most fearsome pitcher since Pedro Martinez. His 18-3, 1.67 performance this year is cartoonish, as is his 7.78 K/BB ratio, his .82 WHIP and his 7.4 wins against replacement despite missing the first month of the season because of injury and the last month of the season because of time travel restrictions. (That last item should be solved soon, notwithstanding Armageddon.)

Sporting his patented* knee-buckling hook, a paralyzing slider and a fastball with bite, Kershaw is 95-49, 2.48 for his career, producing more value in seven campaigns (about 40 wins) than Catfish Hunter in 15 Hall of Fame seasons. Kershaw will almost certainly win his third Cy Young in four years, a second-place finish in 2012 marring the record.

*It may not actually be patented. I'm not his lawyer. Patent may be pending.

But enough about the likely league MVP. Let's turn our gaze to the largely-forgotten sister-kisser who should finish second. 

At home in Great American Smallpark, Johnny Cueto's 18-8, 2.15 this season is noteworthy. In a hefty 222 innings he's shouldered four complete games and fanned four times as many as he's walked. His six-and-a-half wins against replacement would make Cy Young proud, had the stars not aligned to create Kershaw.
It's not like Cueto is a flash-in-the-pan. He's averaged 4.5 wins against replacement over those four years -- about the same as Max Scherzer -- despite missing most of 2012. He throws strikes, clamps down the running game, keeps the ball in the park and goes deep into games. And he's just 28.

Cueto and Adam Wainwright (18-9, 2.54) have been lost in Kershaw's shadow in 2014 but they deserve some recognition. They're both dominant hurlers in the full bloom of their talent whose careers, unfortunately for them, have coincided with the dominant mound force of their generation.

Johnny Cueto Goes All the Way (But Doesn't Give Up Anything)

If you were asked to name the top 10 pitchers in baseball, or 20, or 30, you would likely forget to include Johnny Cueto. The Reds' ace has rocked ERAs of 3.64, 2.31, 2.78, 2.82 and 1.25 since 2009, but he's won more than 12 games once and missed a year's worth of starts the last three seasons.

Well, the 28-year-old righty is making amends in 2014. Cueto has started nine games this season and thrown 63 innings. That's eight frames-a-game, including three complete games and two shutouts. Opposing batters have collected just 33 hits against him this season -- fewer than five-a-game, plus 18 walks and 76 strikeouts. Yeesh.

Here are the nine starts in order:
Seven innings, one run on three hits against the Cards
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Mets
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Rays
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Bucs
Nine innings, one run on three hits against the Bucs
Eight innings, no runs on three hits against the Braves
Eight innings, two runs on three hits against the Brewers
Eight innings, two runs on five hits against the Rockies
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Padres

It's the first time a pitcher has begun the season with nine straight games of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs in 100 years. 

Not a clunker in the bunch; in fact, there's barely a hint of vulnerability. So what is Cueto, 9-0? 8-1? How many no-decisions can a guy have when he's left to the bullpen nine innings in two months?

The answer is, he's 4-2 with three no decisions. His two losses are 1-0 to St. Louis and 2-1 to Tampa. In his nine starts, his mates have hung more than four runs on the opponent once, fewer than two runs three times. What's a guy got to do?

Cueto earned the "W" in Game One of a twin bill against San Diego today. In Game Two, the Reds showed why Cueto has to work so hard for his victories. After opposing hurler Tyler Ross began the game bouncing one slider after another in the dirt, loading the bases on walks, only two Reds forced him to go even four pitches for the next four innings. Both walked, but no one else made a dent and the Reds went down meekly as Ross built confidence and control.

Good luck, Johnny. You'll no doubt continue to win -- as long as you keep pitching complete game shutouts.

If Cy Young Were a NLer, Who Would He Be?

Earlier this week, Cliff Lee struck out 11 Atlanta batters and walked none. He limited the Braves to a single run. And he lost, dropping his record to 6-8.

Though Lee pitches his home games in God's Gift to Offense, his 3.18 ERA is 25% better than league average. In 198 innings, he's walked just 28 batters and whiffed 195. His 1.3 BB/9 and  7 K/BB both pace the league, the latter by a country mile.  

Cliff Lee isn't a top five Cy Young candidate, so his absence from any ballots will be no crime. But if you're wondering what happened to Cliff Lee's unique mound magic, the answer is: nothing.

The real question in the NL Cy Young race is where Johnny Cueto, Kyle Lohse and R.A. Dickey found their mound magic. Along with Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez, they have to be considered the Cy frontrunners. Cueto, a .500 pitcher with a 4.00+ ERA in his first three seasons, has reduced the walks and homers to go 28-14, 2.55 in his last two seasons. The veteran Lohse had posted one exceptional season before (15-8, 3.78 in '08), but he's experienced the full sprinkling of pixie dust this year. In his 12th campaign, he's recorded the most wins (16), best winning percentage (.842), lowest ERA (2.77) most innings (205) lowest WHIP, fewest H/9, fewest BB/9, fewest HR/9 and best K/BB of his career. Pumpkin alert!

And Dickey, well, whoever kidnapped him and replaced him with this guy (19-6, 2.66; 209 K in 22 Innings) is the Mets' MVP.

Closers Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman only pitch 60 innings each, but have been so dominant that they deserve consideration too. More on all of this after the regular season ends. One last start could decide the winner.

And for added drama, the unique stylings of Kris Medlin win Best Supporting Actor. He's barely allowed a run a game and the Braves are undefeated in his 11 starts.