Ninety Years of Doing It Wrong

During a quick perusal of the Sunday sports section -- yeah, I still take a gander at that old relic -- the team batting and pitching summaries leaped off the page and sucker-punched my eyeballs. Down at the bottom of the hitting stats were the Houston Astros, the very charlatans occupying first place in the AL West after winning a weekend series against the behemoths of Detroit.

There they were, the team known previously as the A-A-Astros, dwelling in the hitting cellar. Yet they are living large in the division penthouse. In fact, with a .228 batting average, Houston would seem to be batting in the sub-basement.

Of course, this compilation comes courtesy of the Associated Press, that venerable organization that voted Jimmy Foxx to last year's All Star team.

Thing is, the Astros have done something the Associated Press evidently has difficulty conceiving. They score runs by other means than compiling hits. Huh! Can they do that?

Houston has walked fifth most in the AL and leads the Majors in home runs. They are third in the league in runs scored. (As of the weekend.) That would be runs scored, the purpose of hitting.

So the Associated Press, and by extension newspapers across America, list the Astros as worst in their league at something when in fact they are third best. There is a word for this kind of journalism. That word is: Wrong.

The AP has been doing it wrong for 90 years, but since they've been doing it that way for 90 years they will continue doing it that way. When it comes to covering baseball, the Associated Press, which provides information to nearly every major news operation in America, has the credibility of Bernie Madoff's stock picks. That they are misinforming their readers seems not to make much difference to them. That informing readers is the very purpose of journalism seems to have equal impact.

This is a practice at the Associated Press. It's a policy. This is the way they list team batting statistics -- the way they've always done it.

Here's what should happen instead: Someone in a position of authority should take one look at this summary and determine, much as a third-rate spare-time blogger in Charleston, SC has done, that the formula is archaic, asinine and wrong. And he (or she) should deduce that wrong is bad and immediately declare that henceforth and without hesitation, it should be done right. This policy shift should come to pass without delay because doing it wrong is dumb and doing it right is smart. And smart is better than dumb.

Who could argue with that?

Well, I'm willing to bet it would generate much heat among the Neanderthals of baseball coverage and would take 17 months of review to alter a policy that pre-dates your grandfather. Meanwhile, when I look up the batting statistics in Baseball Reference the default is alphabetical, with Arizona first and Washington last. But clicking on any statistic will re-order the list in descending order of that stat, so if you want to determine the best hitting team, you just click on runs to see the Astros up near the top.

That's smart, which as you know, is better than the Associated Press.

And it didn't take Baseball Reference 90 years to figure it out.

With Help Like That We'd Prefer Hinderance

I got a kick out of this line from the description of the Jon Lester signing by the Cubs:

"Lester was dealt by the Red Sox to Oakland at the trade deadline in July and helped the A's reach the playoffs for the third straight year..."

Ha! Evidently the Associated Press* believes you've already forgotten the 2014 season. You know, the season in which Oakland dominated all of Major League Baseball until pretty much the moment they traded for Lester. 

*Yes, he's picking on the AP again. Sometimes it's a slow baseball news day and all looks bleak and then the AP writes something and makes life fun again. Thank you, AP. Don't ever change. 

For the record, the A's won 65 of their first 104 games, a .625 winning percentage. Three games later they acquired Lester and proceeded to lose 35 of their next 60 games, a .417 winning percentage. They relinquished the best record in baseball, the best record in the AL, the division lead, the first wild card, their air of invincibility, most of their dignity and nearly the post-season altogether, all with Lester in tow. Having stumbled into the Wild Card game, they gakked up a big eighth-inning lead, with Lester on the hill, against middling Kansas City. 

In sum, their season descending into ignominy almost immediately upon Lester's arrival. That's how he "helped" them earn a playoff berth.

Now, to be fair, correlation isn't causation, definitively not here. Lester pitched well for Oakland, allowing 2.82 runs per nine and fanning 71 while walking just 16. It wasn't his fault the A's collapsed like Ukrainian peace talks.

But he doesn't deserve credit for their post-season moment either. They earned that while he was hurling for Boston.

Grounding Out Makes Him the Star of the Game

The Associated Press has a formula for writing news and sports stories that allows random monkeys to hew to their standards, low expectations being the key to happiness.

This formula requires in part that the story lead summarize the event before backtracking later with details. This allows subscribers to edit the story at the beginning and yet maintain the essense.

In baseball game write-ups, the formula evidently requires the writer to acknowledge the go-ahead RBI, however and whenever it is recorded.

It appears there is no adult supervision at AP to recognize when this formula is transparent tripe. To wit, the write-up of last night's Game Three Royals victory:

Lorenzo Cain knocked in a first-inning run and Jeremy Guthrie pitched shutout ball into the sixth to lead Kansas City to a 3-2 victory and a 2-1 World Series lead.

Here's some other information you might find relevant:
1. Lorenzo Cain grounded out with a runner on third. Apparently how that runner came to be so easily transported home (a lead-off double) or who achieved it (Alcides Escobar) did not merit mention. Because RBIs are king. 
2. The false shrine of the RBI was discredited by Bill James six years before the Royals won their only World Series, 29 years ago. The AP never wrote up that story.
3. Jeremy Guthrie pitched five shutout innings; however, in the sixth he was gassed. He allowed a run, left a pair of baserunners and caught a major break when Mike Morse's 900-foot blast curved foul. 
4. Guthrie did not strike out a batter during his appearance but did benefit from several sterling defensive plays by the Royals' remarkable outfield.
5. Guthrie forced his bullpen to pitch four frames and failed to record a "quality start." 

And according to the AP, whose cancer metastasizes to nearly every newspaper in America, those were the stars of the game. Sheesh.

More Fun With Game Write-Ups

More evidence you can't spell "dumb" without "AP."

At the bottom of the wrap-up of a 6-5 Marlins win over the Cardinals, most of which reasonably features Jeff Baker's pinch-hit RBI single with two outs in the ninth and Casey McGehee's game-tying hit following a courageous 11-pitch at-bat, the AP mentions the following:

Mike Dunn (6-4) worked a scoreless eighth and Steve Cishek finished for his 19th save in 21 chances.

It's true that Dunn and Cishek worked a scoreless frame each, relinquishing a single each. It's true that Dunn is credited, according to antiquated rules developed during the Taft Administration, with six wins and four losses on the season, though anyone with even a glancing knowledge of the game recognizes that reliever W-L records are as illuminating as a Ryan Braun quote. It's also true that the flying speed of an African Swallow is roughly 29 mph if it's unladen.

Here's what else is true: Before Dunn entered the game, Sam Dyson hurled two pristine innings, allowing no hits and fanning three batters. He coaxed as many outs as Dunn and Cishek combined and was far more effective doing so. 

And before Dyson, failed starter Jacob Turner entered the game in the fourth inning with runners on, a four-run deficit and the game one safety from breaking wide open. He ended the threat with a strikeout and then pitched a perfect fifth, after which the Marlins plated three runs to tighten the score.

No one has created a phony measurement to describe the contribution Dyson and Turner made to the win, and so the AP appears unable to explain their value. But it was significantly greater than either Dunn's or Cishek's; indeed it's greater than both of theirs combined.

Because we have these utterly worthless and time-worn numbers we can assign to Dunn and Cishek, they can read their names in newspapers across America. The real pitching heroes, Sam Dyson and Jacob Turner, get the consolation prize of a mention in a sad little blog read by few comely and available young women.

Wanted: Sports Journalist Who Knows Sports. And Journalism

Man, this is like stomping on dead mosquitoes -- doesn't take any skill but sure is satisfying.

Here's the A.P. write-up in my newspaper on the Tigers' 5-4 win over Oakland.

Miguel Cabrera hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the fifth inning to back Rick Porcello's eighth victory and the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series.

Ahem.

Let's list the individuals elements of stupid involved in this description.

1. Cabrera flied out and got top billing.
2. Ian Kinsler doubled and got to third without Cabrera's help, but was not mentioned.
3. The fifth inning?!
4. Cabrera's momentous out -- did I mention it was in the fifth inning? -- made the score 3-2. Had the Tigers failed to score two more runs they would have lost.
5. Porcello pitched 5 2/3 and allowed 11 baserunners, including six walks. In other words, he stunk.
6. Three middle relievers saved the game by shutting out Oakland over 2 1/3 frames, including bailing Porcello out of a jam in the sixth.
7. Wins shmins: Porcello has pitched roughly average this year.

What a senscient editor would have re-written:

Ian Kinsler wrapped a pair of doubles and scored twice to lead the Detroit Tigers over the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series. Relievers Gary Kroll, Al Albuquerque and Joba Chamberlain offset a wild performance by starter Rick Porcello to nail down the win.

Wash Incorrectly. Rinse. Repeat Every Sunday

Below is the listing in my Sunday newspaper of the team batting leaders in the National League. 

This listing reflects the fact that the AP and my local sports section editor worship the false god of batting average.

No Team AVG   AB  R H 2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB   K HPB SB  CS  GDP  1. Detroit Tigers .278 1592 220  442  101  4 46 214 130 301 11 39 17 32  2. Texas Rangers .267  1678 216 448 87 11 34 202 160 348 20 35 22 53  3. Baltimore Orioles .265 1686  203 447 80 6 47 198 115 349 19 15 6 38  4. Chicago WSox .261 1804 247 471 91 8 54 232 155 460 17 30 10  38  5. NY Yankees .259 1704 211 441 81 10 47 194 149 367 16 34 5 43  6. Toronto Blue Jays .258 1747 246 450 95 9 70 233  176 366  12 25 9 37  7. L.A. Angels .256 1721 241 441 91 15 55 230 166 386 19 32 7 32  8. KC Royals .254 1673 192 425 91 7 20 177 131 280 10 41 12 40  9. Cleveland Indians .252 1731 225 436 98 8 45 211 196 351 17 32 9 45  10. Oakland Athletics .249 1741 248 433 90 13 52 232 217 353 15 30 3 42  11. Tampa Bay Rays .246 1765 201 435 89 3 38 191 182 361 17 20 8 46  12. Minnesota Twins .243 1612 206 391 86 5 36 190 190 414 14 29 10 30  13. Boston Red Sox .240 1685 195 405 95 5 39 185 190 411 23 14 11 45  14. Seattle Mariners .234 1645 201 385 79 12 38 188 129 389 23 21 13 26  15. Houston Astros .232 1708 185 397 73 11 54 174 157 440 17 38 12 41

But this is nonsense, of course.

The purpose of batting is to score runs, not run up a batting average. The Tigers aren't the top hitting team; they've only tallied 220 runs. The A's have plated 248 runs, most in the league, but they're listed 10th because they do it with home runs and walks, not with batting average. 

Detroit is only the sixth best hitting team. In fact, though they lead the league in batting average by a goodly margin, they're one free pass from the bottom of the league in walks, leaving them third in OBP.

If you were to re-order this list by what really matters it would look like this:  10-4-6-7-9-1-2-5-12-3-14-11-13-8-15. 

There's not a lot of correlation there. Teams in the top half of the league in batting average tended to be in the top half in scoring, but that's about the entirety of the connection.

If you ordered teams by OBP or OPS you'd have a higher correlation. Listing teams in the order of their home runs would give you roughly the same mess.

Hitting for high average is valuable, but it's only one of many building blocks of the ultimate aim -- scoring runs. Could someone wake the Associated Press and let them know?

A Mindless Summary Vs. The Facts Vs. The Truth

Rookie Enny Romero combined with five relievers on a three-hitter as Tampa Bay beat Baltimore 3-1. Fernando Rodney picked up his 36th save.
Associated Press

You can't spell stupid with AP! Wait...um..

Here is what actually happened:

Rookie Enny Romero combined with four relievers on a one-hit shutout until Fernando Rodney nearly lost the game, which Tampa Bay hung on to win 3-1. Rodney surrendered Baltimore's only run and two of its three hits before getting credit for his 36th save.

Here is really what happened:

Following an 18-inning affair that sapped Tampa Bay of available starters, career Minor Leaguer Enny Romero flew from the Dominican Republic to combine with four relievers on what might have been a shutout. With closer Fernando Rodney on in the ninth, Matt Wieters doubled on a two-out pop-up to third that hit the catwalk in the stadium's roof and knocked in Baltimore's only run. Rodney retired the next batter to earn his 36th save.

That's the difference between a mindless summary, the facts and the truth.

Fun With Conventional Wisdom

Braindrizzling should pay royalties to the Associated Press for all the knee-slapping material it provides. Let's take a spin around the Majors AP-style, which is to say, in the style of the purveyors of conventional wisdom.

Jason Heyward hit a three-run homer to lead an Atlanta offense that scored in all but two innings.

Heyward's blast came with the Braves leading 7-1 in the seventh inning, having already blitzed Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick. He didn't lead the Atlanta offense to anything they hadn't already achieved. Perhaps Dan Uggla's two-run smash in the second inning could have been described as "leading" the offense.

Jonathan Lucroy homered and Yovanni Gallardo scattered six hits over six innings while adding two hits and a pair of runs scored as Milwaukee beat the Mets.

Here's how Gallardo "scattered" six hits: he mixed in three walks, a homer and a double, surrendering four runs in six frames. That's an ERA of 6.00 and fails to attain the modest standard of a quality start. But seven Brewer runs afforded him his seventh "win," and for that Gallardo shares top billing.

Andy Pettitte threw an early pitch exactly where he wanted. Chris Davis launched it over the centerfield wall. Most of his later offerings landed in the right spot and Pettitte stopped the Orioles again.

...Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play? Pettitte also allowed nine base runners and four runs in six-and-two-thirds innings. That's an ERA of 5.40 and also not a quality start, but backed by early runs, Pettitte was credited with a victory.  

We've still got a ways to go.

APpalling!

No, seriously, the Associated Press was not invented as fodder for discerning sports bloggers. But if someone hangs a curve with the bases loaded, you don't refuse to bust it out of the park just because the pitcher is an inept dope. Sure, after a few lollipops it might be time to find stiffer competition, but let's shoot fish in a barrel once again for some quick laughs.

AP report: Carlos Beltran's sacrifice fly started a four-run rally in the seventh inning and the Mets held on for a 4-2 victory over the Reds.

Memo to the AP intern who wrote this dreck: a sacrifice fly, by definition, cannot start a rally. Someone had to be on third in order for the ordinary fly ball out to mean anything. This is like saying that Gettysburg started the Civil War.

Jose Reyes was on third, as a matter of fact, the result of consecutive singles by him and Justin Turner. To say Reyes "started" the rally would be vastly fairer, but still not entirely accurate. 

Following Beltran's out, David Wright singled, Daniel Murphy doubled in two runs and Jason Bay plated Murphy with a safety.

So, Dissociated Press, your hero, Carlos Beltran, had the distinction among the first six batters in the inning to make the only out. He contributed negatively to the proceedings. Absent his contribution, the Mets would have scored the same runs in exactly the same order but would have had a better chance to score a fifth run with Bay on base and one less out.

Braindrizling report: Daniel Murphy doubled in two runs during a four-run rally in the seventh inning and R.A. Dickey and four relievers stymied the powerful Cincinnati lineup in a 4-2 victory.

But wait, there's more!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the box score right next to the Mets-Reds writeup:

Aaron Harang outpitched Cliff Lee, Chris Denorfia stole home and San Diego beat the Phillies for the first time in more than a year.

This is what social scientists call TBU -- true but useless. Your grandmother outpitched CLiff Lee last night. Lee surrendered five runs on 10 hits in four innings in another July meltdown.

Harang, who earned top billing in the AP account, didn't even earn a quality start. He gave up four runs on eight hits and two walks in six innings and really deserves none of the credit for the win. (Relievers Chad Qualls, Mike Adams and Heath Bell did their usual stellar job strangling the Phils over the final three frames.)

On the other hand, Denorfia raced to the plate with an unassisted run on a play that hadn't been successfully executed by a Padre in SIX YEARS. But the AP chose to feature Aaron Harang and his game ERA of 6.00. Really, with all the unemployed journalists, can't AP find someone who can think?

There is a common thread here. Carlos Beltran was credited with an RBI. Aaron Harang got credit for a win. Being stuck in a statistical 1955 means that the Associated Press can't tell an accurate story because it's focused on old fogey stats that we've known for years distort reality. And since the Associated Press is a cooperative, owned by its member news operations across the country, this ignorance is a reflection of the entire state of sports journalism today.

Braindrizzling report: Chris Denorfia stole home and the Padres pounded Cliff Lee for 10 hits in four innings as San Diego defeated the Phillies for the first time in more than a year.

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A Little Kick In The Kotchman

Just when I start to get used to rays of sunshine illuminating the world of baseball reporting, the rain clouds of ignorance move in to remind me that while we've made some progress, we still live in a cumulus of journalistic daftness when it comes to sports reporting.

It's a small and silly thing really, a report this week from the Associated Press, that staunch defender of the 1901 reporting methods. It mentioned that the Tampa Bay Rays had signed first baseman Casey Kotchman to a contract, noting that in seven years he has hit .259 with 49 homers and 284 RBIs.

If you didn't know Mr. Kotchman or his St. Petersburg clan you'd have gained rather little insight into his career from those stats. He doesn't seem to be Stan Musial. Beyond that, though, you don't have much information.

After all, Casey might have kicked around for a few years, making cameo MLB appearances, busted out with a couple of 24 homer, 100 RBI years before a string of injuries put him on the shelf. In that case, bad luck might be winning the tug of war with good skills and the Rays are hoping for a good roll of the dice in 2011.

Or he might have plodded along through seven lackluster seasons, dinking seven homers and 40 RBIs a year. That's not even take-a-flyer material, especially at the least important defensive postion.

Maybe, in fact, Kotchman is a walk machine with after-burners who'll reliably bat leadoff for Tampa, get on base 250 times, swipe 40 of 45 bases and score 120 times while displaying a sizzling glove. In that case, the batting line presented not only matters less than his cup size, it summarily fails to measure anything relevant.

In fact, Kotchman is none of the above. A part-time player his whole career, he's accumulated even 300 plate appearances just four times. His .259/.326/.392 lifetime stat line show he's a hair above replacement level at the plate, unless he repeats last year's putridity. The less reliable defensive stats suggest he's a decent defensive backup.

The point isn't what Casey Kotchman is or isn't -- in fact, this is a throwaway item of little note that simply fills space in the newspaper. But as long as AP was going to fill that space, why couldn't they have filled it with information that told us something, anything? What they gave the baseball public instead was simply an empty bucket that was 30 years ago thought to have held something useful.

There is work yet to be done...

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Back Here on Planet Earth...

AP summary of Mets-Indians game:

Johann Santana won for the first time in four starts and NY rallied to beat Cleveland.

Santana (5-3) gave up four runs and seven hits over seven innings as the Mets won their fifth straight and ninth of 10.

The left-hander fell behind early, struck out only one, but earned his first win since beating the Yankees on May 23.

During that stretch, he had two no decisions despite not yielding a run over 15 consecutive innings.

Francisco Rodriguez worked the ninth for his 14th save in 17 chances despite yielding a two-out, two-run pinch homer to Shelley Duncan.

Braindrizzling summary of Mets-Indians game:

David Wright had three singles and Ike Davis homered as the Mets pummeled Justin Masterson and the Cleveland Indians.

Despite the worst outing in his last four starts, Johann Santana was credited with his first win of that stretch, thanks to the Mets' 12-hit attack. Previously, he had two no decisions despite not yielding a run over 15 consecutive innings.

Santana gave up four runs and seven hits, and struck out only one over seven innings as the Mets won their fifth straight and ninth of 10.

Francisco Rodriguez nearly blew a three-run lead in the ninth, surrendering a two-out, two-run pinch homer to Shelley Duncan before registering a third out. He was credited with a save.

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You Can't Spell Stupid Without "AP"

AP story on Mets-Nationals game...

"Pinch hitter Adam Kennedy's sacrifice fly broke a 2-all tie in the seventh, Drew Storen  (1-0) got two outs for his first major league victory and Matt Capps closed for his major league-leading 15th save.

So to summarize, someone got to third base with the winning run, but the AP chose to credit Adam Kennedy for bringing him home by making an out. Both starters went six effective innings but the AP chose to credit a guy who recorded two outs for the win. And the game's second most ineffective pitcher, closer Matt Capps, who entered with a three-run lead and surrendered a run before coaxing three outs, is the man AP selected for special mention over everyone else.

This is what's wrong with baseball reporting in a nutshell. We count wins, saves and RBIs so sports media award merit badges for achieving them, even when it's transparent how poorly they correlate with performance. The three actors named in the story combined to contribute virtually nothing to the Nats' win.

Livan Hernandez, who hurled six-and-a-third  frames of two-run ball? No mention, because Washington's third run didn't arrive until he had already left the game, so he wasn't credited with a win. Fernando Tatis's game-tying sixth-inning jack for the Mets? Hey, they lost. Carlos Guzman's single, triple and two runs scored in four at-bats? We don't really tally triples. Besides, he didn't drive home a run, which is an indication of being a clutch hitter, even though actual research demonstrates that it's no such thing.

The Associated Press could instantly transform the way baseball is covered in newspapers across America -- or at least the segment of America that still has newspapers -- by updating their reporting standards by 30 years. But that would require thinking. I'm not holding my breath.

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Preview Review

It's a beautiful time of year, when every publication this side of The Economist runs its baseball preview. (The editors of that august journal might find it less depressing these days to follow suit.) I've been gobbling them up and watching the needle on the Ignorance Meter pin the red end.

Take this from the Associated Press on the Cincinnati Reds:
"If Aaron Harang can bounce back from a down year, the rotation can be one of the league's best."

Well, I suppose it could, assuming a litany of other unlikely scenarios occurs contemporaneously. Harang would have to bounce back from a down year while at the same time Edinson Volquez would again have to pitch his brains out, Johnny Cueto would have to improve on his 4.81 ERA and someone would have to fill the fourth and fifth slots, and among the current someones is Josh Fogg, whose ERA of 7.58 from last season looks more like a good pitcher's pH.

In other words, if Mt. Everest fell down, K2 could be the world's highest peak. Don't hold your breath.

Here's another about the Phillies: "Raul Ibanez agreed to a $31.5 million, three-year contract to replace Pat Burrel in left field, making Philadelphia's already dangerous lineup even deeper. Ibanez is one of five outfielders to drive in at least 100 runs in each of the past three seasons."

By relying on the wrong metric, the AP has determined that bronze is more valuable than silver. Raul Ibanez has an .845 OPS over the last three years, Pat Burrel, .889. Raul Ibanez is 37, with an expiration date of about 39. Pat Burrel is 33. The Phillies got worse, not better, by signing Ibanez, and they paid a premium to do so. Burrel inked a two-year deal worth $2 million-a-year less.

Finally, there's this bit of chuckle inducement: "Houston got a boost in spring training when 13-time Gold Glove catcher Ivan Rodriguez agreed to a $1.5 million contract." I'm splitting hairs here, because Pudge is undoubtedly better than the black hole that was sucking matter into the backstop position before him. But the 'Stros are so lacking in talent after Berkman, Lee and Oswalt it's hard to see how the wretched refuse of Ivan Rodriguez's career, not to mention his AARP membership, can possibly help this sorry ship sail. More than a catcher, the Astros need an overhaul.