Arson in the Rangers Bullpen

On the heels of Tom Wilhelmsen's self-immolation Tuesday came Shawn Tolleson's contribution Wednesday.

If this keeps up, you'll want to tune into the late innings of every Texas game.

On Tuesday, Wilhelmsen entered with a 4-2 deficit and quickly converted in into a 9-2 blowout. At least he didn't wear his arm out: only 12 throws.

On Wednesday, Tolleson climbed the mound in the ninth to close out a 5-4 win. He fired 14 pitches to five batters. Single. Single. Double. Single. Home run by Robinson Cano.

Have a seat, son.

Seattle's odds of winning the game leaped from 14% at the start of the frame to 99% when Tolleson departed.

The two relievers have combined for 26 pitches to 10 batters. All 10 have scored. They have not recorded an out. They have faced Cano twice and have kept him under 500 feet twice. But barely.

This could be fun.

Let's Rub Robinson Cano's Uniform in Dirt

Dustin Pedroia is an awesome player. A career .301 hitter, he gets aboard at an admirable .367 clip, flashes leather at second, swipes bases efficiently and plays with verve that endears him to teammates. He's posted 39.4 WAR since entering the league in 2006.

Ronbinson Cano also flashes leather at the keystone, though vervelessly. He poses no threat, except to his own team, of running. A career .309 hitter, he's on base a little less than Pedroia but hits for significantly more power -- twice as many home runs and 50% more RBI. He's also outscored Petey by 162 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox have both created scads of crooked numbers during the two players' careers, so that's not an issue. 

Overall, Cano has posted 45.5 WAR in one more season, six wins more valuable overall than his Boston rival. But Mariano Rivera says in his new book that he prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man. 

Rivera says Pedroia burns to win and Cano does not. Well, I burn to win. Unfortunately, my talent lacks the will to exist. 

More importantly, does "desire" really show up in the results? In his career, Pedroia is a slightly worse hitter when he bats with two outs. Cano is too, though he retains more of his value. But Mariano Rivera prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man. 

With runners in scoring position, both players lose some value. Pedroia makes up some ground on Cano, but Cano is still the better hitter.

Pedroia comes alive in high-leverage situations -- when the game is really on the line -- hitting safely nearly 40% of the time. Cano can't match him. But Cano makes it all up in medium leverage situations. It's a point for Petey, but hardly conclusive.

How about the post-season, when it really matters? Ha! They both stink. Cano has been more pungent, but nothing about Pedroia's post-season resume says "burn to win." 

Cano is also getting better; his four best seasons have been his last four.  Pedroia peaked in '08 and has more or less maintained that level of performance.

So why would the sainted Mariano Rivers take a jab at his former teammate and issue an homage to a former rival? The less obvious reason is a soiled uniform on a 5' 8" body. Pedroia makes a habit of throwing his miniature self in the dirt each game, and that gives the appearance of caring. We all adore the scrappy little over-achiever.

The more obvious reason is that Cano committed the cardinal sin of jumping the Yankee ship for the money. It's hysterical to hear the team's fans contort themselves to find that odious. Evidently they discount any accomplishments by Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Wade Boggs, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter . . . how much time do you have?

Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher of all time or at least until Craig Kimbrel retires. But that doesn't make him an expert on analyzing the game, any more than it made Joe Morgan or Harold Reynolds or John Kruk. The two second basemen are both potential Hall of Famers, but the talent is worth more than all the world's scrappiness. Take Cano, and if it makes you feel any better, you can rub his uniform in dirt before he puts it on.

Questions To Ask Ourselves

With a flurry of trades and signings now in our wake, a couple of questions should be occurring to us as we contemplate which teams have improved and which are reeling.

Question: What do the Yankees know about Robinson Cano?
Explanation: The Bombers declined to pay Hall of Fame prospect Robby Cano $24 million for 10 years, but they shelled out $22 million for seven years of oft-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, who has produced OPS above league average twice since he began playing regularly in 2008.

The $97 million difference is nothing to sneeze at, even if you have the Yankees' immunity system. But these players are not equivalents. Cano's value to NY since '08 is roughly double Ellsbury's (36 wins against replacement versus 18), and though Cano is a year older and plays a less demanding defensive position, previous history suggests he will last at second base longer than Ellsbury will stay in center. 

So why did the Yankees let Cano walk? Incumbent teams know more about their free agents than anyone else does. They know if he's a jerk in the clubhouse, if he's lazy or stupid or annoying, if he's distracted by a woman or if he'd be lost without his ailing mother. They know what nagging injuries he's been papering over and whether he's losing his mojo in the weight room.

When the home team waves off its own player it should give the signing team pause. So what do the Yankees know?

Question: What do the Red Sox know about Jacoby Ellsbury?
Explanation: Already sporting a natural center fielder (Curtis Granderson, a free agent himself) and speedsters in the outfield corners (Brett Gardner and Ichiro) the Yanks put $153 million and seven years on the table for Ellsbury, at least three years and $93 million more than they could have spent to keep the Grandy Man. (The Mets pledged $60 million over four years to Granderson.)

By letting Ellsbury go, Boston's already precarious outfield now features Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and a big question mark currently causing New Englanders to cringe at the answer "Jonny Gomes." Why would a championship-caliber team allow their outfield anchor to walk when the alternative is a giant hole?

It's not like the Red Sox went on a spending spree elsewhere. They forked over $8.25 million to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia with reliable A.J. Pierzynski and laid out $4.75 for reliever Edward Mujica, raising their 2013 payroll by roughly nothing. (Actually, Baseball-Reference.com projects the Sox' payroll will decline $13 million, an amazing result following a World Series parade.) So what do the Red Sox know?

Question: What does Philadelphia management know....period?
Explanation: Oh man is it going to hurt like a Mighty Mighty Bosstones concert in Philly this coming season. Like a hobo in a Brooks Brothers suit, the Phils will sport the second most expensive NL roster while battling Miami for relegation to Double-A. For $159 million, here's some of what the City of Brotherly Love gets:

Jimmy Rollins, 35 (.2 WAR in 2013) $11 million
Carlos Ruiz, 35 (1.7 WAR) $8.5 million
Chase Utley, 35 (3.5 WAR) $15 million
Jonathan Papelbon, 33 (1.5 WAR) $13 million
Mike Adams, 35 (.3 WAR) $7 million
and of course, Ryan Howard, 34 (.6 WAR) $25 million

That's $80 million for an eight-game edge on the bottom-feeding Astros. GM Ruben Amaro can expect a Valentine's Day card from (Washington GM) Mike Rizzo.

Question: What do the Kansas City Royals think they are?
Explanation: When they traded away the future (Wil Myers) for James Shields, they didn't realize they were relinquishing the present as well. They have Big Game James under contract for one more season following a Shields-infused 86-win campaign that had them in the Wild Card mix until the very end. That gives KC 2014 to make a real run at contention in the hopes that Cleveland was a fluke or Detroit stumbles without its Prince. (Better hope for the fluke...)

So what have the Royals done to prepare? They filled a gaping hole at second by signing Omar Infante to a four-year deal. He replaces replacement-level Chris Getz, adding two-three wins at the keystone. They flipped a below-replacement relief pitcher named Will Smith in the pursuit of happyness with rightfielder Norichika Aoki -- another two-three wins. And they inked lefty starter Jason Vargas -- another two wins -- to a four-year deal that displaces one of the Royals legion of fifth starters. While they lost a win or so by trading right-field defensive specialist David Lough, they strengthened third base by acquiring right-swinging Danny Valencia, who will platoon with southpaw-challenged Mike Moustakis.

That's a string of small but significant under-the-radar moves, but the Royals still lack power (Alex Gordon's 20 dingers paced the club) and starting pitching behind Shields (they'll not get 24 wins again out of Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie). If they have visions of playoff plums dancing in their heads they need to swing at least one more deal. Otherwise they're stuck in the middle lane, unable to turn right into rebuilding or left into contention.

Question: Are the Pirates standing pat because they think they're good enough to repeat or because they realize 2014 won't be their year?
Explanation: If Pittsburgh GM Neil Huntington is honest with himself, he realizes that the patron saint of lost causes had to be smiling down on PNC Park for the Bucs' surprise party to come off so swimmingly in 2013. In 2014, Jeff Locke's not slipping a 3.52 ERA into their drink. Mark Melancon's not doing the 1.39 ERA hustle or the 8.75 K/BB tango, at least not for 71innings. Justin Morneau won't be back for a .370 OBP surprise. Andrew McCutchen can't possibly top last year's party favors. And the team won't outplay their fundamentals by six wins. So if they want to avoid starting a new streak, he'll need to start inviting some different folks to his 2014 party.

Instead, the Pirates made 1B Garret Jones (.289 OBP) walk the plank, watched Morneau jump ship,  brought back on board SS Clint Barmes's invisible bat (.211/.249/.309) and SP Charlie Morton's inconsistent quality (two years below-3.84 ERA, two years above-6.14 ERA), and welcomed hurler Edinson Volquez (4.94 ERA since 2009) to serve as fifth mate. That's a whole lot of Nobody McNobodywicz, and it leaves Pittsburgh, at 85 wins of quality, steering an even more middle course than Kansas City. 

The Buccos may say "Aaaargh" to big name free agents, but they need to bid "Ahoy" to some improvements or it's going to look ugly as an eye-patch. The roster cries out for a league-average starter and an outfield bat; a lefty platoon-mate for Gaby Sanchez (200 points worse OPS against righties) would even be parrot-on-the-shoulder. Absent that, don't say you weren't warned.

The AL MVP: 2012 Redux

Should we hold it against an MVP candidate that he hit just .265 with two extra base hits in September crunch time? How about that he did most of his damage before the All-Star break? Or do we acknowledge that a great May (when he hit .379 with 21 extra base hits) helps his team win just as much as a big finish? Isn't the MVP award a referendum on an entire season, irrespective of the chronology of the performance?

Miguel Cabrera led the league in batting average, on-base average, slugging percentage and OPS. He hit 44 home runs, second most in the American League. He batted .635/.850/.1.375 on 3-1 counts (40 of 'em) and .397/.529/.782 with runners in scoring position. His 2013 performance has been historic, especially in light of his 2012 domination.

So forget about his anti-climatic last month. The reason that Miguel Cabrera isn't the American League MVP is that over the course of the season, he wasn't the best player.

Yes, here we go again.

Whether Cabrera is the best hitter in the world is about as debatable as whether the U.S. has too much debt. He's hit .338 with 88 homers and 276 RBI with an OPS over 1000 over the past two seasons. (The debt, on the other hand, is hitting 20 trillion.) Baseball is more than hitting, though. It's baserunning and defense too, and Cabrera is below average in both areas. He's among the league leaders in grounding into double plays and waddles the extra base less often than most men on base. On defense, well, he's a world-class hitter. If we put his defense and baserunning in batting average terms, Cabrera would be a .240 baserunner and a .220 fielder at third.

There's an MVP candidate -- Mike Trout, of course -- who, like MIguel Cabrera, is a terror at the plate. He's hit .323/.431/.554 this year. Where Cabrera has performed 98% above average at the plate, Trout has performed 78% better.  That's a big difference. But there's a gaping chasm between Trout and Cabrera in the other aspects of the game. Trout has stolen 33 bases in 40 tries, among baseball's best. The nascent base running metrics suggest he's elite at taking the extra base as well. 

In the field, Trout is enough of a hit-killer to patrol the critical central pasture. The defensive difference between a mediocre center fielder and a mediocre third baseman is as wide as Cabrera himself. Trout is rated anywhere between just another guy and God's gift to turf by the computers, the scouts and the highlight reels. Even by the least generous accounting, Miguel Cabrera can't pack Trout's lunch with the glove.

Add it all up, divide by the level of competition they face, multiply by generosity of their home park and you get this: Mike Trout has been the most valuable to his team this year. Consider three different measuring systems using wins against replacement:

Baseball-Reference
Trout     9.1
Cabrera  7.1. 

Baseball Prospectus
Trout     10.3
Cabrera  7.4

Fangraphs 
Trout     10.2 
Cabrera  7.7

By some accounting, Cabrera isn't even the second-best player in the league this year. Josh Donaldson, Oakland's slick-fielding third baseman, has hit .302/.383/.502 with 24 homers in that trench in Oakland. Baseball-Reference has him nearly a run more valuable than Cabrera. They also rate the Atlas of New York, Robinson Cano, at 7.6 WAR for his .313/.383/.514 performance from the keystone. 

Other legitimate candidates include Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis (.287/.370/.634 with 53 homers), Texas cornerman Adrian Beltre (.315/.372/.506 with 29 HR) Boston DH David Ortiz (.308/.395/.565 and 30 HR), Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis (.281/.363/.487 with 29 of 36 steals) and Blue Jay diamond-crosser Edwin Encarnacion (.272/.370/.534 with 36 HR). Season with pitchers if you like, but they have their own award.

Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the American League again this year and it isn't particularly close. In the voting that actually bestows the award, if the race is between the tortoise, Cabrera, and the hare, Trout, we know how it will end. Because there is still a majority of sportswriters whose version of baseball is a fairy tale.

Next time, the NL MVP.

Just One More Good Year

Sandy Koufax's bifurcated Major League career would have made Henry Jekyll proud: the mediocre first half (seven years, 36-40, 4.06, six wins against replacement) and the spectacular second half (six years, 129-47, 2.24, 44 wins against replacement.) 

Considering the totality of his career achievements, Koufax is a pale shadow of the average Hall of Fame hurler. Yet omitting the Left Arm of God from Cooperstown is unthinkable. His peak years, in which he posted ERAs an astonishing 43%, 59%, 86%, 60% and 90% better than league average, were the equal of anyone's, ever.

Where Koufax's career was an avalanche, Don Sutton's was the inexorable drip, drip, drip of a waterfall in drought. Sutton truly excelled in just three seasons, but his reliably good performance across 23 years earned him a bust in the Hall as well.

Thus the premise for the widely used "JAWS" rankings for Hall of Fame contenders: both full career value and peak value are relevant. Whereas some players earn their ceremony for sustained excellence, others get in with bursts of greatness.

This is why 2013 is so important for Robinson Cano's Hall of Fame resume. Cano has not played nearly long enough to accumulate the career numbers for the Hall, but another eight-win season catapults him to average peak WARP for Hall of Fame second basemen. After that, it would just be a matter of accumulating the remaining 30 WARP or so over the second half of his career. That feat is accomplished by playing well, if not spectacularly, for another six-seven years before tailing off in his late 30s.

It's not quite fair to say Cano's age-30 season is a make-or-break campaign for his Hall of Fame resume. He's young enough, after all, to slip for a year or two before rebounding in another season. The Hall is filled with gentlemen who were absent from the discussion at age 30 but sprang into it thereafter. Paul Molitor jumps to mind: although he was a seriously fine player in his first nine seasons, he'd never cracked .842 in OPS before his age-30 campaign. In his 30s, he perenially batted above .300, crossing .850 OPS six times, including three seasons above .900. Molitor also contributed value to the Brewers - and then Toronto and Minnesota -- every year through his age-40 season.

More numerous are the meteors who start their career on fire but flame out just when this discussion might have begun. Dwight Gooden found his cliff at age 25, but Fred Lynn posted five 4+-win seasons in his first seven years, then starting after age-30 never reached that height again.

So it's premature to place the burden of Robby Cano's Hall of Fame case on the shoulders of 2013. But another performance like last year's, or the year before or the year before that, begins to put him in the rarefied air that is breathed only along Otsego Lake.

Injuries limited Roy Halladay to 156 innings and a 4.49 ERA in 2012, adding almost nothing to his Hall pass. A bounce-back 2013 would really solidify the case for old Harry Leroy, because he's right at the standards on both career and peak. He owes some of his voluminous value to durability -- 220 innings or more in each of the six years previous to last -- which Hall voters and the general public seem to esteem less than actual greatness. Another top-five pitching performance this year would make it difficult to deny Halladay entrance in 2020, or whenever. The question is whether at 36 he possesses the might to once again throw 230 frames of sub-3.00 ERA. (There is this hope: it's a contract year for Halladay.)

The noodle just began wrapping around this question and these two names emerged from the goo. If you are thinking of a player whose ticket might be one more good year from getting punched, put his name in the comment section and we'll dig in.