Maybe the Snakes Are Better Than We Thought? Nah.

Entering 2017, one could be forgiven for looking kindly upon the chances of the team in Phoenix, anchored as it is by some real talent. Zack Greinke is a true rotation ace. Paul Goldschmidt is a quiet superstar -- maybe the best first baseman in the game. A.J. Pollack and Jake Lamb are stars and David Peralta is another good outfielder.

Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, the measure of a team isn't its cleanup hitter or its ace, but its  #8 hitter, its fourth starter and its set-up guy. Thanks in large part to the disastrous front office tenure of Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart, the Dbacks' cupboard is bare beyond those players named.

Coming into the season, the Dbacks were projected to field among the worst players in the game at catcher, second base, shortstop, and left field.  Add to that the worst bullpen in the Majors, and you have too much for Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and A.J. Pollack to overcome.

Well, we're 46 games into the season and Arizona has a .587 winning percentage, "on pace" for a 95-win campaign. The reason, in its entirety, is that players at the above-mentioned positions have performed better than league average. When you're expected to be the worst team in the league at your position, and instead your 12th or 13th our of 30, that's a big improvement.

And maybe the team is better than we thought they were. Maybe the kindly lookers were right about them. But probably not.

New research by Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs shows that even though pre-season analytical projections don't have much of a track record, they are more than twice as predictive of a team's performance after Game 50 as a team's performance in the first 50 games of the season is. In other words, the first 50 games can be very deceptive and bear very little relationship to how good a team actually is.


What 's that telling us about the Diamondbacks? It's telling us to take them with a grain of salt. In fact, consider every team's start the same way. If you're a fan of the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays, that's good news. If you like the Brewers, Rockies and Twins, it's not so much.

Just remember one thing: the first 50 games do count. So if the Dbacks are 10 game over .500 and play a mere .500 the rest of the way, they will end the season at 86-76. And that could get them into the Wild Card.

Should Snakes Sell Off Greinke? Not Just No, Hell No!

If you lived in Phoenix -- or Tucson or Flagstaff, for that matter -- you'd be hearing a lot of "Trade Zack Greinke" talk. It's not hard to understand: the Dbacks are unfathomably bad and Greinke is more like an actor in community theater doing a bad Zack Greinke impersonation, complete with a 4.17 ERA and a $200+ million contract.

Certainly if this sorry outfit, skidding to 95 losses, were considering a massive deal with Greinke now, you'd dismiss that as dumb on the scale of building a wall along the Mexican border. (Come to think of it, Phoenix is close to the Mexican border; maybe we can get Mexico to pay Greinke's contract.)

It's been reported that the Dodgers offered to take Greinke's contract off Arizona's hands; i.e., without sending anything back in return. The team's brain trust -- if you want to be generous to team president Tony LaRussa and general manager Dave Stewart -- scoffed at the offer.

The contract was rubbish (from the team's point of view; Mrs. Greinke, I'm sure, thinks it's genius) the day it was inked because it assumed that Greinke would continue to pitch like his 2015 career year (19-4, 1.66) rather than like the 32-year-old, 14-9, 3.40 pitcher he is. 

Nonetheless, Greinke is about the only mound asset Arizona has. They are last in the league in ERA even with their ace and 42-73 without him.

And while their offense has been inconsistent, it positively pulsates with talent. A trio of stars  -- first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, outfielder A.J. Pollock (who's been hurt all season) and keystoner Jean Segura -- is complemented by a passel of promising young players -- hot cornerman Jake Lamb, swingman Chris Owings, outfielder Yasmany Tomas and catcher Wellington Castillo, to name four. That's a solid core to build around for next year and beyond. (In addition, any team with a Tuffy and a Socrates has yin and yang covered.)

Relief pitching can be found, often by keeping the arms already on the roster. So starting pitching is this team's Achilles heel next year and it can't be healed on the free agent market. There won't be anything out there unless Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart want to empty the vault -- assuming that's not already it's state -- for Edinson Volquez or Andrew Cashner. No kidding, those are the top names on the 2017 free agent pitching market.

No, the Dbacks have a chance to be quite improved next season, but only if they keep the only reliable starter they have. They need to scuttle the front office experiment and get a real team president and GM. Then develop the impressive talent on board, find a couple of third starters and run Greinke out 35 times. They could be the Miami Marlins of 2017.

Snakes Alive! Or Maybe Not...

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it in their own home ballpark. The Arizona Diamondbacks made the big splashes this off-season when they signed Zack Greinke to a gargantuan contract and traded the #1 draft pick for Shelby Miller. The plan hasn't panned out, at least not so far, as Arizona stands 37-47, 15 games out of first. With the trade deadline bearing down, questions about their future abound.

There is precedent for the Snakes in the very recent past.

The 2015 "Sadres"

In the winter preceding the 2015 season, the San Diego Padres bet the house on a pennant. Fledgling GM A.J. Preller scooped up the toxic contracts of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and James Shields. He flipped assets for Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and Derek Norris. Added to what appeared to be a strong foundation of arms, there was hope in SoCal following another 77-win season

Alas, the big names stumbled, the defense cratered and even the pitching teetered, leaving San Diego three games worse than the year before. By the time of Opening Day this year, Upton, Middlebrooks and Shields were gone. Norris and Kemp sport OBPs of .265 and .277 respectively for the 33-46 Pads. However bad the team was in 2014, it's both worse and further behind today.

The 2013 "Blooper" Jays

The 2013 Toronto Blue Jays have a similar story, though a happier ending. Frustrated by two decades of soul-crushing mediocrity, GM Alex Anthopoulos fashioned what some thought was a World Series roster, banking Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Macier Izturis and some smaller pieces. To obtain them, he sacrificed, among other things, Noah Syndergaard and Travis D'Arnaud.

Reyes and Cabrera missed a full season between them in 2015. Dickey's Cy Young mojo disappeared and Buehrle suffered the lowest WAR of his career. Johnson endured the last 81 innings of his career in 6.20 ERA misery. Izturis's .597 OPS cost his team a win. The Jays drowned in the AL East.

Toronto didn't panic though, and it was rewarded. Reyes and Cabrera played solid seasons in 2014. Dickey and Buehrle rebounded. The team jumped back over the .500 mark and set the table for a division title a year later.

Can Phoenix Rise?

Which of these teams is the Diamondbacks? The answer remains to be seen, of course, but each of the three made its move following a season of roughly 85 losses, so they're all in the same starting place. 

Miller and Grienke, in addition to incumbent stars Paul Goldschmidt and AJ Pollock, aren't going anywhere in the near term and are all good bets for continued stardom. That already distinguishes them from San Diego.

Moreover, there are some solid pieces behind that quartet. Jake Lamb, 25, looks like the future at third. Keystoner Jean Segura is back to his on-base stylings. With young outfielders Yasmany Tomas and Chris Owings, this team has the capacity to field a formidable lineup.

The hill has been their Achilles heal, to the extent that a snake can have such a thing. It's going to take better seasons from Miller, Robby Ray and Patrick Corbin to catapult the Dbacks in future seasons.

Arizona needs to restock its farm and develop some talent around the four stars. They also need to be patient around the trade deadline and avoid the temptation to move product. If they succeed, and the winds of fortune blow their way, they can reprise the Blue Jays' experience.

It's All Over But the Shouting

Here we are, one-tenth of the way into the season and it all seems to have been decided. 

The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.

It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted. 

This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.) 

Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross.  Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.

This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.

That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.

The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.

Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.

The Curious Case of Mark Reynolds

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed their enigmatic third baseman, Mark Reynolds, to a new three-year, $14.5 million contract, with an $11 million option in 2013. If they are paying for uniqueness, they have their man. If they’re paying for quality, it could be a roller-coaster ride.

Reynolds is a 27-year-old baseball-launching device, personally responsible for a measurable portion of the Gulf Stream when he swings. If you know of him, it’s likely because of his record 223 strikeouts last year.

Reynolds had an All-Star caliber year in ‘09, batting .260 with 44 home runs. He was worth 4-5 wins relative to a replacement-level cornerman. As long as he bats .260, he can keep his OBP at .350, a reasonable escort to a formidable .550 SLG. The problem is, when you whiff in 39% of your at-bats, that’s a tall order.

Last year, Reynolds batted .423 on balls he put into play (BABIP) in order to achieve that overall batting average of .260. The average batsman posts a BABIP around .300-.320. Perhaps Mark Reynolds, because of his gargantuan cuts, is smacking the ball harder on those occasions when he makes contact and is therefore more likely to produce a high BABIP. But .423 doesn’t sound sustainable. It sounds like torrid hitting, masked by a high strikeout rate.

Let’s say instead, that Reynolds strikes out, walks, and homers at the same rate in 2010 as in 2009, but only hits an unusual .390 on balls in play. Lo and behold, he’s a .239/.328/.483 hitter with six fewer home runs. Not bad if you’re goal is to collect a major league paycheck, but not far from a backup role.

For what it's worth, the major projection systems expect very much what I've outlined, pegging him at roughly .245/.335/.490. There's a word for a career trend line like this one: uh-oh.

The Snakes feel like they have nailed down a key puzzle piece as he enters his prime, and maybe they have. However, if Reynolds can’t keep hitting at last year’s pace, we may have already seen his peak, and the $11 million option will be a real knee-slapper. 

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