As you are no doubt aware, Albert Pujols entered the 500 HR club last week and then entered the 500+ HR club the next day. Prince Albert leads the AL in HR and slugging percentage at this very early stage, a welcome contrast to his last two seasons of decline and lost greatness.
Before that, of course, Pujols was a historically spectacular hitter for the first decade of his career, averaging .331/.426/.624 with 41 homers each year. Injuries and age have conspired to undermine him both at bat and afield just as he was inking a gargantuan new deal with Anaheim. Because he's been eclipsed by the likes of Cabrera, Trout and McCutchen, and because his team has sagged into mid-standings, we've been forgetting what an all-time great Pujols is even if he hangs up the uniform and forgoes the $189 million awaiting him through age 41.
In fact, when you start ranking first baseman, you get to Albert pretty fast. It's fair to say he is currently the third best cold cornerman of all time and might be second if he keeps this up.
The Iron Horse is in a class by himself, of course. In a career shortened by, well, death, Lou Gehrig added 112 wins against replacement, hit 79% better than average and finished in the top five in MVP voting eight times.
The careers of Jimmie Foxx and Johnny Mize overlapped with Gehrig's and they also towered over their contemporaries. Despite losing three prime seasons to WWII, likely worth about 20 WAR to his record, Mize piled up 71 WAR, hitting 58% above league average. You could make a good case fort Mize as fourth best all time.
Foxx, the quintessential slugger after Ruth and Gehrig, compiled 96 WAR and led the AL in OPS five times.
In fact, Foxx and Pujols are pretty good comparables:
Foxx -- .325/.428/.609
Pujols -- . 321/.409/.599 (so far)
Foxx -- OPS+ = 163; 96.4 WAR
Pujols -- OPS+ = 165; 94.2 WAR (so far)
Foxx -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 4
Pujols -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 10 (so far)
Best 10 Seasons
Foxx -- .335/.440/.635; 41 HR; 171 OPS+
Pujols -- .331/.426/.624; 41 HR; 172 OPS+
Pujols is a better fielder and baserunner but Foxx showed a glint of Ruthian pitching prowess. In 1939 he threw a hitless ninth in a game for the Red Sox, recording one strikeout. Then in 1945, the Phils let him pitch nine times. In 23 innings he limited batters to 13 hits and four earned runs for a 1.59 ERA. (Pay no attention to the 14 walks and 10 strikeouts.) Take your pick now but Albert has an opportunity to surpass Double-X in short order.
After them, it falls off quickly. Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Willie McCovery, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Greenberg, Frank Thomas and Mark McGwire are among the next group of greats, but Pujols has already eclipsed them all. Unless these few weeks have been the last embers of Phat Albert's fire and we're to be subjected to seven years of padding, he's entering the Hall of Fame as the second greatest first baseman ever.
Showing posts with label Prince Albert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prince Albert. Show all posts
26 April 2014
17 February 2013
Who Is Baseball's L.A. Lakers?
It's said that everyone has a twin somewhere in the world. Does every baseball player and team have a twin in another sport? As the NBA interrupts its interminably unproductive regular season for an All-Star exhibition, it's a good time to determine where there are analogs across leagues.
For example, which MLB team is most likely to repeat the work of the 2012-13 L.A. Lakers, a Ferrari of assembled talent playing like a jalopy? It seems as if the Toronto Blue Jays are setting themselves up for that, having imported the failed Miami Marlins' roster for a run at an AL East title. But it feels different with the Blue Jays, perhaps because they're no longer commanded by General Footshooter and perhaps because they are a year removed from novelty.
MLB's Angelinos are both candidates for this comparison because both have spent lavishly on talent and are expecting upper echelon results. Of the two, the Dodgers seem more vulnerable to under-performance because their imports seem less strategic and they're starting with a weaker base.
This year's Miami Heat is the MLB squad with a world class roster and championship-or-bust designs. Perennially that would be the Yankees, but management's efforts to put the payroll on a diet have trimmed some of the excess talent from the Bombers this season. The L.A. Angels feel like the team built for both the short and long haul and most likely to elicit yawns for winning the World Series.
The baseball version of the San Antonio Spurs is the St. Louis Cardinals. Both franchises have been successful for two decades despite small-market profiles and middling payrolls. They both have management with aptitude and vision, strong on-field (court) leadership, a culture of modesty and excellence, and star players who act like professionals. The Spurs no longer have the most talent, but they have the best record in the NBA so far. The Cards never had the most talent, but won two titles in six years and got to Game 7 of the pennant last year after losing the best player on the planet to free agency.
The Phoenix Suns are a once-proud franchise now in some semblance of disarray. Their 17-36 record so far this year looks a lot like the Boston Red Sox' final month of 2011. Also like the Sox, they have no pitching.
It's too early to tell who will be baseball's version of the Chicago Bulls, treading water until their ascendant superstar's triumphant return. But their opposite is in New York. The Yankees are hoping to make waves while avoiding the return of their dimmed star.
We won't even mention the Charlotte Bobcats and Pittsburgh Pirates. Their fans have suffered enough.
LeBron and Kobe have no equal in horsehide. Prince Albert still generally needs a last name, has never been a brand and is no longer the unquestioned king of the game. But Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg appear to be the Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose of baseball. Like Rose and Durant, the baseball trio has made the All-Star team every year they've spent in the league. Maybe the Bulls should have shut down Rose in last spring's playoffs to avoid catastrophic injury.
Tim Duncan and Derek Jeter are sports doppelgangers. Bright, beloved, biracial, respectful Hall of Famers with lots of team-based jewelry. Neither ever says anything controversial. Neither has been able to reach a grounder hit six feet to his left for eight years.
Jarvas Varnardo averages less than a point per game for the Heat and less than a third of a rebound as the last guy off the bench for Miami. But he and Dwayne Wade will sport the same ring if Miami repeats as NBA champs. That would make him the Eli Whiteside of basketball. The 32-year-old catcher backed up Buster Posey last season for the World Champion Giants -- which is like being Robert Deniro's understudy. Whiteside got into 12 games with a double, a walk, a .396 OPS and a ring. And then he got waived.
Finally, Charles Barkley has Curt Schilling, the retired great who can't seem to shut up. Actually, Barkley has Barkley and Schilling has Schilling, which might be the crux of the issue.
For example, which MLB team is most likely to repeat the work of the 2012-13 L.A. Lakers, a Ferrari of assembled talent playing like a jalopy? It seems as if the Toronto Blue Jays are setting themselves up for that, having imported the failed Miami Marlins' roster for a run at an AL East title. But it feels different with the Blue Jays, perhaps because they're no longer commanded by General Footshooter and perhaps because they are a year removed from novelty.
MLB's Angelinos are both candidates for this comparison because both have spent lavishly on talent and are expecting upper echelon results. Of the two, the Dodgers seem more vulnerable to under-performance because their imports seem less strategic and they're starting with a weaker base.
This year's Miami Heat is the MLB squad with a world class roster and championship-or-bust designs. Perennially that would be the Yankees, but management's efforts to put the payroll on a diet have trimmed some of the excess talent from the Bombers this season. The L.A. Angels feel like the team built for both the short and long haul and most likely to elicit yawns for winning the World Series.
The baseball version of the San Antonio Spurs is the St. Louis Cardinals. Both franchises have been successful for two decades despite small-market profiles and middling payrolls. They both have management with aptitude and vision, strong on-field (court) leadership, a culture of modesty and excellence, and star players who act like professionals. The Spurs no longer have the most talent, but they have the best record in the NBA so far. The Cards never had the most talent, but won two titles in six years and got to Game 7 of the pennant last year after losing the best player on the planet to free agency.
The Phoenix Suns are a once-proud franchise now in some semblance of disarray. Their 17-36 record so far this year looks a lot like the Boston Red Sox' final month of 2011. Also like the Sox, they have no pitching.
It's too early to tell who will be baseball's version of the Chicago Bulls, treading water until their ascendant superstar's triumphant return. But their opposite is in New York. The Yankees are hoping to make waves while avoiding the return of their dimmed star.
We won't even mention the Charlotte Bobcats and Pittsburgh Pirates. Their fans have suffered enough.
LeBron and Kobe have no equal in horsehide. Prince Albert still generally needs a last name, has never been a brand and is no longer the unquestioned king of the game. But Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg appear to be the Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose of baseball. Like Rose and Durant, the baseball trio has made the All-Star team every year they've spent in the league. Maybe the Bulls should have shut down Rose in last spring's playoffs to avoid catastrophic injury.
Tim Duncan and Derek Jeter are sports doppelgangers. Bright, beloved, biracial, respectful Hall of Famers with lots of team-based jewelry. Neither ever says anything controversial. Neither has been able to reach a grounder hit six feet to his left for eight years.
Jarvas Varnardo averages less than a point per game for the Heat and less than a third of a rebound as the last guy off the bench for Miami. But he and Dwayne Wade will sport the same ring if Miami repeats as NBA champs. That would make him the Eli Whiteside of basketball. The 32-year-old catcher backed up Buster Posey last season for the World Champion Giants -- which is like being Robert Deniro's understudy. Whiteside got into 12 games with a double, a walk, a .396 OPS and a ring. And then he got waived.
Finally, Charles Barkley has Curt Schilling, the retired great who can't seem to shut up. Actually, Barkley has Barkley and Schilling has Schilling, which might be the crux of the issue.
09 December 2011
The Ghost of Christmas Past
The thing is, past performance does not guarantee future returns. It would be nice when, investing a quarter of a billion dollars, one could expect some kind of certainty, but the only certainty with a 32-year-old (at least!) athlete who has a history of back and elbow injuries is uncertainty.
The Angels, of course, are paying for past results. In just 11 years, Albert Pujols produced more lifetime value for the Cardinals than all but four first basemen in history, according to Baseball Prospectus. (Lou Gerhig [17 seasons], Jimmie Foxx [20 seasons], Cap Anson [forever]). An "average" Pujols year in 2012 would put Albert at the top of the list.
We may look back on Pujols's 2011 bemused by the anomalous dip in his production. He had by far the worst season of his career at the plate, with the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, true average and VORP and the fewest hits, doubles, walks, total bases and RBIs of his career. (He's come to the plate fewer times twice in his career.)
Or we may peer down the slope that began its downward vector in 2010, much as we could see the sine curve of Ken Griffey Jr.'s career. In that case, the Angels are paying for some large fraction of the 90 WARP (wins against replacement player) of Albert's first half but receiving Kent Hrbek instead. That's an asset, for sure, but it's only one-third the payoff, which at $254 million, is a loss of $169 mil. That's a dickens of a return on the ghost of Christmas past.
Fortunately for Anaheim management, tools exist to measure the risk and color inside the lines a bit. They suggest -- assuming Pujols really is his stated age (hrrrumph) -- a partial bounce back in 2012 and then a slow, steady decline over the next few years. The last three or four chapters of the contract are likely to be more about stat-padding than contributions to the team, but it does matter to ownership if a 41-year-old Albert swats his 764th home run while in a Halo uniform. That might not help them directly to win a pennant, but if it puts buttocks in the seats, the extra cash might pay for a critical part that will.
That Mrs. Pujols and the Pujols progeny are promised $25 million in 2019, and then again in 2020 and even in 2021 nearly guarantees that dear ol' dad will still be lugging his lunch bucket to Angel Stadium even if he's barely more than a splinter collector. That, in turn, increases the likelihood that he'll be chasing some big-time records and co-habitating with the royalty of the sport, if not pushing them all down the charts one notch.
In that sense, the signing might benefit baseball fans in general, especially those who don't cotton to steroid-tinged records, whether owned by Mr. Bonds or Mr. Rodriguez.
b
17 February 2011
What Mozeliak Knows
Q. How much is your best player worth to your team if he's hurt all season?
A. Not zero. That wouldn't be so bad. He's worth zero minus whatever you're paying him.
There, in a nutshell, may be the reason the St. Louis Cardinals prefer to have $300 million over the next 10 years than to have the best baseball player in the universe.
In a world where Alex Rodriguez can command $27.5 million/year and Derek Jeter can even extract $18 million/year, Albert Pujols should be able to wrangle a $30 million per diem. Jeter's OPS could fall asleep in the left pants pocket of Pujols' OPS without causing a bulge.
In his first 10 seasons, Prince Albert has added roughly 92 wins to his St. Louis teams. At nine wins a season, Pujols is worth roughly $45 million/year. Moreover, for a borderline playoff franchise like St. Louis, the eight or nine marginal wins positively swells with import. A .500 Cards team without Albert is a 90-win Central division champ with him, adding attendance during the season, revenue from playoff games, spiked merchandise purchases and similar future expenditures.
Yet Cardinal management reportedly offered $25 million for eight years, far below Albert's marginal value, assuming he continues his Superman imitation.
Should we dial up the local looney bin for GM John Mozeliak? Nah, hold the phone.
When teams balk at inking their own stars, it's worth considering what they know. Mozeliak may be seeing something in Pujols that concerns him, perhaps on the training table. His star has suffered in the past with a balky back, something to be especially concerned about as he ages.
Mozeliak may also know more about Albert's true chronology than the rest of the league. If his age is understated by a mere two years, Pujols hits age 40 in the seventh year of the deal. The odds of breaking down increase logarithmically in ordinary humans at about age 38.
There's another consideration that has little to do with the player himself. If Mozeliak is realistic about the current squad, he may conclude that his stars-and-scrubs franchise with limited resources won't be able to afford a decent supporting cast after betting the farm on one player. Even a winning bet hamstrings the franchise; a losing bet consigns St. Louis to 10 years of paying the vigorish and watching Houston pass in the standings.
Research shows that free agents re-signed by their incumbent team fare significantly better on average than those lured away. It's worth assuming that management of the home team has good reason for re-upping or bypassing the player in question.
b
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