Showing posts with label Jimmie Foxx. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jimmie Foxx. Show all posts

26 April 2014

Second on First? How Great Is Albert's Career?

As you are no doubt aware, Albert Pujols entered the 500 HR club last week and then entered the 500+ HR club the next day. Prince Albert leads the AL in HR and slugging percentage at this very early stage, a welcome contrast to his last two seasons of decline and lost greatness.

Before that, of course, Pujols was a historically spectacular hitter for the first decade of his career, averaging .331/.426/.624 with 41 homers each year. Injuries and age have conspired to undermine him both at bat and afield just as he was inking a gargantuan new deal with Anaheim. Because he's been eclipsed by the likes of Cabrera, Trout and McCutchen, and because his team has sagged into mid-standings, we've been forgetting what an all-time great Pujols is even if he hangs up the uniform and forgoes the $189 million awaiting him through age 41.

In fact, when you start ranking first baseman, you get to Albert pretty fast. It's fair to say he is currently the third best cold cornerman of all time and might be second if he keeps this up.

The Iron Horse is in a class by himself, of course. In a career shortened by, well, death, Lou Gehrig added 112 wins against replacement, hit 79% better than average and finished in the top five in MVP voting eight times.

The careers of Jimmie Foxx and Johnny Mize overlapped with Gehrig's and they also towered over their contemporaries. Despite losing three prime seasons to WWII, likely worth about 20 WAR to his record, Mize piled up 71 WAR, hitting 58% above league average. You could make a good case fort Mize as fourth best all time.

Foxx, the quintessential slugger after Ruth and Gehrig, compiled 96 WAR and led the AL in OPS five times.

In fact, Foxx and Pujols are pretty good comparables:

Foxx --   .325/.428/.609
Pujols -- . 321/.409/.599 (so far)

Foxx --   OPS+ = 163; 96.4 WAR
Pujols -- OPS+ = 165; 94.2 WAR (so far)

Foxx --   MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 4
Pujols -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 10 (so far)

Best 10 Seasons
Foxx --   .335/.440/.635; 41 HR; 171 OPS+
Pujols -- .331/.426/.624; 41 HR; 172 OPS+

Pujols is a better fielder and baserunner but Foxx showed a glint of Ruthian pitching prowess. In 1939 he threw a hitless ninth in a game for the Red Sox, recording one strikeout. Then in 1945, the Phils let him pitch nine times. In 23 innings he limited batters to 13 hits and four earned runs for a 1.59 ERA. (Pay no attention to the 14 walks and 10 strikeouts.) Take your pick now but Albert has an opportunity to surpass Double-X in short order.

After them, it falls off quickly. Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Willie McCovery, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Greenberg, Frank Thomas and Mark McGwire are among the next group of greats, but Pujols has already eclipsed them all. Unless these few weeks have been the last embers of Phat Albert's fire and we're to be subjected to seven years of padding, he's entering the Hall of Fame as the second greatest first baseman ever.

12 August 2013

Here We Go Again

It's happening again. 

Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.

How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.

(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)

Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.

That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.

Again.

Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.

Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.

Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge. 

This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion. 

Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.

Again.