The Worst Deal Ever?

In case you hadn't noticed, relief pitchers are hot commodities around trade deadline these days. Consider the haul the Yankees made off with for a few months of Aroldis Chapman last season. Or what Washington had to relinquish just a week ago for two good-but-not-great bullpen arms.

Now consider Tommy Kahnle, formerly of the White Sox. In 36 innings this season he has walked 7 and whiffed 60. He hasn't allowed a homer in three years (102 innings). Advanced defensive stats say his 2.50 ERA vastly understates his actual value.

Finally, consider that the team controls Kahnle at below-market rates until 2020. That's quite an asset right?

Here's what the White Sox received in return for sending him to the Yankees:

1. The #30 prospect, now at Low-A ball (here in Charleston). Not the Yankees' top prospect, whom they received as part of the package for Chapman.
2. Two other guys.

Seems a little light, right? I mean, the contenders all need bullpen help. There's lots of demand for someone like Kahnle. He's good and cheap and will stick around for awhile. And Chicago let him go for three guys who might never sniff the Majors.

But that's not the big problem with this trade. 

The big problem is that Kahnle isn't even the best player in the deal. He accompanied the closer he'd been setting up in Chicago, David Robertson. Robertson, the former Yankee closer, owns 123 saves the last 3+ seasons and is signed through next year.

For these three Minor leaguers, only one of whom is really anything to look at, the Yankees didn't just get one top-of-the-line bullpen arm. They got two. 

But wait, it gets worse.

Chicago also picked up the albatross contract of Tyler Clippard, owed about $6 million more this season before he becomes a free agent. Clippard has no value to the rebuilding White Sox and was thrown in as a salary dump for the Yankees.

So on top of giving away two first-rate relievers in high demand on the trade market for very little return, White Sox brass also did Yankee brass a $6 million favor.

This sounds like the worst deal since Lincoln agreed to those free theater tickets. 

And it just gets worse.

You've probably heard that Greg Bird is out for the season. The flotsam and jetsam the Yankees have inserted at first have left them with the worst performance at that position in the AL. If they're going to make any kind of playoff run, they need someone to play first.

So the White Sox sweetened a sugar-coated deal by adding Todd Frazier to the mix. Frazier doesn't hit for average, but he's a Jersey guy who walks plenty and socks home runs and can slide over to third when Joe Girardi gets tired of watching Chase Headley not hit.

So to recap:

• The Yankees received a closer everyone was after.
• The Yankees received a set-up guy who could be an incredible asset for three years after this one.
• The Yankees received salary relief by dumping Tyler Clippard and his 4.95 ERA out of the pen.
• The Yankees filled a desperate need at first with the acquisition of Todd Frazier.

• The White Sox received New York's 2016 first-round draft pick.
• The White Sox received some organization filler who might possibly turn into something but probably won't.

The days of stupid GMs left us with the firing of Ed Wade in 2005. In fact, most GMs have a GM as their boss, often called a president of baseball operations, and they make decisions as a team using a combination of scouting and advanced statistical analysis. So the White Sox front office must know something I don't. But on the surface, this appears to be significantly less return than Chicago could have received elsewhere, or by swapping out these assets separately.

Finally, consider one more thing, the Yankees' bullpen:
Tommy Kahnle
Adam Warren
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman

I know the bullpen has struggled in the Bronx in recent weeks, but holy smokes that's a lot of heat. C.C. Sabathia never has to pitch another sixth inning again.

What To Do About A-Rod

Alex Rodriguez is over. Over like the Macarena, like Debby Boone, like Carrot Top (pictured right-- look away!)

ARod spent his 41st birthday on the bench -- for the fifth straight game -- and for good reason. He's as creaky as loose stairs. Two hip operations later, he can't play the field. He swings like a rusty gate and now he's dancing with Mario Mendoza's legacy at .206/.256/.364. His 227 plate appearances have cost the Yankees a win.

A-Rod could just retire but for the $42 million he's owed for this year and next. The Yankees could just jettison him but, well, you get the idea.

So there he is, taking up roster space on a team that's skidding sideways.

A great piece on Baseball Prospectus documents what good company ARod is keeping with players who posted abysmal OPS+ in their final or age 40 seasons. BP's research shows that no one who plays this poorly this late in his career bounces back.

Besides, what would Rodriguez bounce back to? After a torrid start to 2015, he hit .191/.300/.377 in the final two months.

The Yankees seem caught between ARod and a hard place with their former slugger. But I have a solution for them.

My ARod Plan
First, once the Yankees have acknowledged that they aren't winning a playoff spot this year, they should play ARod every day. Give him a chance to either produce or convince everyone the tank is empty. It also allows him to record his 700th home run, from which he stands four shy.

Then, after the last dregs are drug up, let Alex Rodriguez realize on his own that he needs to leave. Give him the space to approach the Yankees for a buyout -- what basically amounts to ransom. "Pay me a big pile of money and I won't clog up your roster."

If he fails that test, Brian Cashman can turn the tables and offer the buyout. The team would have some leverage too. They could offer a nice retirement package with a ceremony and a happy ending. Or, they could cut his sorry butt and let his checkered career end ingloriously. His choice.

But what if he foils the plan by beating the odds and playing well? Great! Same plan, but this time, offer him the opportunity to retire on top, like David Ortiz. Let him plausibly say it was his decision, to show one last time he could still bring it at 41, and then leave the game.

It's not a perfect solution, but such things have never existed with Alex Rodriguez. Despite the other-worldly talent, good looks, fame and fortune, there's never been an easy way with him, at least not since his Mariner days of the last century. So you take what you can get, which is a few million in savings and a roster spot for someone who can actually contribute.

Both Sides Won the Chapman Deal

I own an automobile. Granted, it's a little four-cylinder Toyota Yaris, bought for 13 grand five years ago, but it runs reliably, hauls my bicycle and sips gas.

If you gave me a better car, say a 2016 Honda Fit, I would drive that instead. (I like small hatchbacks.) I might even be willing to pay something for it, but not much, because I already have an automobile.

If you then offered me a third automobile, even a Mercedes or Lexus, I wouldn't be very interested. What do I need three cars for?


Th-h-h-h-h-he Yankees Win!

The analogy isn't exact, but it suggests why Aroldis Chapman is so much more valuable to the Chicago Cubs than to the New York Yankees, and why the Yankees might have made the Chapman trade announced yesterday even if they believe they are competing for the Wild Card in 2016. As one of three shutdown relievers, Chapman has less value to NY than he has to Chicago, which lacks confidence in their now-former closer, Hector Rondon.

Yankee fans bemoan the loss of their shutdown closer, but they didn't lose their shutdown closer, they lost their shutdown seventh inning. Andrew Miller, whose fastball also blazes white hot, who also fans more batters than a bakery air conditioner and who also allows a run once every new moon will move from the eighth inning to the ninth. Ditto for Dellin Betances, who will shut down the eighth inning rather than the seventh. In other words, the loss to the Yankees is pretty minimal, whether they're contending or not.

The Cubs Win Too!
For the World Champion-or-Bust Cubs, a fireman like Chapman can alter the course of events. His acquisition tells the roster and the fans that they are all-in for a championship. Even more to the point, as the value of closers appears to magnify in October, Chapman may be the piece that catapults the team from playoff guarantee to World Series behemoth.

Cubs boss Theo Epstein relinquished a boatload of young talent for 30 innings of Chapman. Under ordinary circumstances, he got fleeced. But here too, the automobile analogy applies imperfectly. Adam Warren, who excelled in his two Bronx seasons, was getting drilled by NL hitters. Shortstop Gleyber Torres, the key prospect sent to NY, has limited value to a Cubs roster that sports All-Star Addison Russell in that position, and All-Star performers at second and third.

The Perfect Trade
In other words, this is the prototype of a synergistic trade. Each team gained more than it lost, in the Yankees' case, much more. Their high-priced, doddering roster was promising years of pain prior to the acquisition of four legitimate Major League prospects. And If the Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years, nothing those prospects achieve will matter on Chicago's North Side.

Stuck in the Middle With You: The NY Yankees

Remember when Brian Cashman was a sort of onomatopoeia? He was named for the main power source of baseball's Evil Empire.

That would make him Brian Conflictedman now. The Yankees are mired in Middle Earth, an elevator stuck between floors, an oxymoron in pinstripes -- whatever metaphor you prefer.

They're Old, Expensive and Mediocre
Their average age is as low as 32 only because of a handful of babes dragging down the mean. Their average performance is average, as befits a 24-25 record. Their upside is down; their downside is up; they are upside down.

Underdog is not coming to save the day. The farm system is, say it with me now, middling. (You were going with average. Tomato tomahto.) As incumbent teams ink their top hurlers to deals, there isn't any pitching on the free agent horizon. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are shaping up as the top names in free agency after this season. In any case, the Yankees are more than a player or two away.

The youngsters on the roster have mostly fizzled: Nova, Severino, Gregorious, Castro -- building on that base gives you the face pictured above.

Rebuilding? Fuggetabouit!
A selloff is untenable, which is just as well, because it's unthinkable. These are the Yankees after all. For once, their legend is a hindrance. What would they trade anyway? If you stuffed Sabathia, ARod, Texeira, Headley, Beltran and Ellsbury in a bag and threw them over the railing of the Circle Line cruise ship, no other team would fish them out, even if Cashman ate the contracts. Gardner, McCann and the relievers would fetch some second rate prospects, but the immediate results would be really ugly and the farm would still need a couple of years of seeding.


The Yankees are stuck in the middle. They have to cash in all their chips this year knowing they likely don't have a winning hand. Baseball Prospectus has their odds of making the playoffs -- including the play-in game -- at roughly one in six, last in the division. 

If they can pick up a starter and a reliable first or third baseman without crippling the future, they should and will. Otherwise they are stuck in the unenviable role of also-rans in both the present and the immediate future. How's it feel to be the Padres, New York?

Dismiss the Yankees At Your Peril

The clouds are gathering in the collective wisdom and coalescing into dismissal of the New York Yankees. Go ahead, at your own peril.

For sure, the Yankees are a pale shadow of their former selves. Their stockpile of big ticket free agents are nursing osteoporosis now. Many of their richest players pass the season on the disabled list -- or the suspended list. They have made a habit for two years now of auditioning one reclamation project after another in the hopes of catching lighting in a bottle for 300 at-bats.

It's certainly nothing like 1996-2012, when NYY was a post-season lock -- 16 times in 17 years, reaching seven World Series and capturing five championships. Last year, Joe Girardi's nine won 52.5% of their games, their worst performance in more than two decades. This season, it's a tick below that. The Yankees are basically a .500 team.

And yet, the Bombers are 58-53, just five games out of first in the limp AL East and a mere game out of the Wild Card. In another week or two, Michael Pineda returns to the mound, and ace Masahiro Tanaka could be hurling for them again in September.

They would complement new additions Chase Headley at third and Martin Prado anywhere they want.

Could the Yankees emerge from the scrum among Toronto, Seattle, KC, Cleveland and Tampa for the last playoff slot? Sure, why not? Every team on that list has an Achilles Heel as vulnerable as New York's punchless outfield. Could the Yankees overtake Baltimore for the AL East with a few hot weeks? Stranger things have happened. Heck, Hunter Pence parallel parked yesterday.

Then once they're in, all bets are off. Or on. Or...whichever it is. Baseball playoff series are only slightly less random than GEICO ads.

Which brings us to another piece of conventional wisdom gone astray. Since the trade deadline, it has become doctrine that the Tigers, with their three Cy Young starters, or Oakland, with their own trio of aces, are locks to compete for the pennant. As if Max Scherzer has never lost 2-1 (to the Yankees yesterday). Or Justin Verlander, blown up (seven starts of five runs or more allowed this year). 

It's certainly an advantage to throw three aces at an opponent in a seven-game series than not. It's an advantage to throw three aces at opponents all year. But it's not a guarantee of anything, particularly over a handful of games.

The Yankees aren't the favorites. the Tigers and A's are. (Perhaps the stacked Angels' lineup too.) But the favorite entering baseball's playoffs -- much less entering August -- hasn't won the championship the last four years. For that, you have to go back to 2009 when -- well whaddaya know! -- the Yankees won it all.

Letters To the Arbitrator

Dear Mr. Arbitrator,

Thank you so much for saving our franchise $24 million in 2014. We plan to use that money on a new starting pitcher. It will help us remain under the $189 million luxury tax threshold while staying competitive, which in turn will save us millions more in future years. 

Gratefully,
Brian Cashman
Bronx, NY

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Dear. Mr. Horowitz-san,

Your most admirable decision is most cherished, like chrysanthemum. Will add $3 million at least to the bids for my services in United States of America. Very sincerely good news that New York Yankees enter bidding aggressively, like Samurai warrior. Many appreciations for you.

Very sincerely yours.
Masahiro Tanaka
Rakuten, Japan 

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Dear Fred,

Appreciate the vindication. And not calling me to testify. You certainly stay on our arbitrators list.

Bud

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Dear Mr. Horowitz,
Whatever. 

Tony Clark
Executive Director, MLBPA

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Dear Mr. Arbitrator,
Way to go: you cost the bastard twenty-something million dollars! If I could have done that, I wouldn't have bothered drilling him with a fastball. Right on!

Ryan Dempster
Boston, MA

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Dear Mr. Horowitz, sir,
Although I won't be making an further comments about the adversity that I have had to face, I want to take this opportunity to express my deep appreciation for your work in diverting attention away from my situation. With the ghost of Alex Rodriguez hovering over every conversation, people will quickly forget that I made a mistake, which I have admitted. In fact, they will see that I bravely stepped forward and accepted my punishment while ARod self-righteously persisted in tilting at windmills. 

I'll be happy to take your questions.

With great respect,
Ryan Braun
Milwaukee, WI

The Most Interesting Team in the World

Like the Dos Equis Man, they're the most interesting team on earth. And the unlikeliest to be so. The New York Yankees could have been just another deep-pocketed behemoth; instead, their long-toothed roster is crumbling like an untended building. Their Hall of Fame infield never played together in 2013 and the clock struck midnight on their high-priced substitutes. Their bargain-basement fill-ins too.

Barring late-season heroics, injuries and other catastrophes will keep the Yankees from the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. Nonetheless, their winning season has been an amazing accomplishment for which the manager and GM will elude due credit. Consider:

• Players earning $56 million are injured and done for the season. That doesn't include long absences by Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson ($44 million).
• They've gone dumpster diving for replacements and shuffled18 everyday players through the lineup for fewer than 100 at-bats each.
• They've employed 38 everyday players who have contributed less than half-a-win over replacement.
• Two dozen pitchers have taken the ball for them. A third of them have pitched three innings or fewer before being dismissed.
• Their replacement shortstops have accounted for a putrid .229/.289/.316 line all year. Double-back-up third basemen have delivered .226/.291/.324. Catchers, .217/.292/.304. Fill-in first basemen, .229/.295/.395. Left fielders, .240/.292/.404.
• None of those is their weakest hitting position. Their designated hitters have been designated out-makers: .190/.276/.315.  

Despite the mayhem, not a peep of dissatisfaction has emerged from anyone associated with the team, which has vastly out-performed its run production and prevention. Competing in baseball's toughest division and with unprecedented spending constraints, GM Brian Cashman has managed to pare the payroll while adding slugger Alfonso Soriano.

Which brings us to 2014: If team brass are serious about doing the limbo under the salary cap, next season is going to be even more intriguing as they attempt to reduce a $228 million roster to $189 million while replacing two of their best values -- Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. Seven aging players already soak up $94 million (assuming Jeter returns as promised but not withstanding the amount of Alex Rodriguez's $26 million offset by suspension. A good guess would be that the Yankees will be on the hook for about $16 million while ARod serves a 50-game penalty.)

The elephant in the room is the impending free agency of keystoner Robinson Cano, who has carried the Bombers in 2013. Cano has allowed whispers that he's warming the engine of a Brinks truck. The Dodgers have allowed whispers that their money-printing machine is at his disposal. If so, New York will lose their top performer unless they can fashion a back-ended deal that rewards Cano for delaying his riches one year.

GM Brian Cashman has some chips to play though, in large part because he signed half the 2013 team to one-year contracts. Brett Gardner and David Robertson will get nice raises in arbitration but will continue to deliver value. Ivan Nova will remain a bargain in arbitration and spare change can bring back a marginal catching unit. If Cano accepts a back-ended deal and costs just $15 million next year, here's a $120 million team:

C- Stewart/Cervelli 
1B - Teixeira
2B - Cano
SS - Jeter
3B - Rodriguez
OF - Granderson
OF - Gardner/Wells
OF - Suzuki/Soriano
DH - many choices from the roster

SP - Sabathia
SP - Nova
SP - 
SP - 
SP - 
CL - Robertson

RP - 
RP -
RP - 
RP -RP - 
UT -  
UT -
UT -

That leaves $70 million to find and sign an experienced infielder to spell Jeter and ARod, two above-average starters, a deep bench, an entire relief corps and some left-handed bats. If Cashman can convince a couple of free agents to accept back-ended deals, and bring back Mark Reynolds-type veterans on cushion-change contracts, he could produce a pennant-contending team. The big question will be how badly the declining assets decline. 

Don't count them out.