Back in the heat of the baseball season I shared my impression of the Yankee-White Sox trade that send two key relievers, a slugging third baseman and salary relief to New York for a prospect and two roster pegs.
The impression I shared looked like this: The Worst Deal Ever? with a photo of Hitler and Chamberlain shaking hands.
Now that we've had the rest of the regular season and some of the post-season to digest the swap it's a good time to reconsider it.
And so, with the perspective of time and some additional evidence, I offer this evaluation:
It was worse than I thought.
Of course, if you're a Yankee fan, it's even better.
On Chicago's Side
The three White Sox minor leaguers obtained in the deal continued to do what they were doing before hand. One 23-year-old outfielder hit pretty well at Double-A. The 22-year-old relief pitcher looks good at High-A, but at that age at that level he's not a prospect. The 20-year-old at mid-A is nothing to look at.
The White Sox might have brought back a relief pitcher and possibly an outfielder with speed. Time will tell but the tea leaves aren't steeping in their direction.
On Bronx's Side
The Yankees obtained Kahnle and Robertson. Both have been as advertised. Kahnle whiffed 36 in 26 innings and hadn't relinquished a postseason run until the team's final loss in the playoffs. Robertson limited opponents to a 1.03 ERA with the Yankees. Together, they have formed half of a shutdown bullpen in the post-season.
And they'll both be back next season at very affordable prices.
Then there's Todd Frazier. Many saw him as the pill the Yankees had to swallow in order to procure such a scrumptious meal. For the year, Frazier hit 27 home runs, played stellar defense at the hot corner and earned 3.4 wins against replacement.
He wasn't much in the division series against Cleveland, but hit well against Houston.
The Final Calculus
The Yankees netted two highly-coveted, first-rate, fireballing relievers and a solution to their problems at the corner. Beyond that, they get to keep the bullpen guys -- one for 2018 and one for three years. In addition, they saved salary by dumping Tyler Clipparrd on the White Sox. (Chicago flipped him to Houston where he locked opponents down to six-and-a-half runs a game and got left off the post-season roster.)
What they gave up might very well be nothing. Maybe a guy. Certainly nothing as enduring as a pennant. There had to be better offers out there for a pair of highly coveted relievers, plus, plus.
Worst deal ever, White Sox.
In case you hadn't noticed, relief pitchers are hot commodities around trade deadline these days. Consider the haul the Yankees made off with for a few months of Aroldis Chapman last season. Or what Washington had to relinquish just a week ago for two good-but-not-great bullpen arms.
Now consider Tommy Kahnle, formerly of the White Sox. In 36 innings this season he has walked 7 and whiffed 60. He hasn't allowed a homer in three years (102 innings). Advanced defensive stats say his 2.50 ERA vastly understates his actual value.
Finally, consider that the team controls Kahnle at below-market rates until 2020. That's quite an asset right?
Here's what the White Sox received in return for sending him to the Yankees:
- The #30 prospect, now at Low-A ball (here in Charleston). Not the Yankees' top prospect, whom they received as part of the package for Chapman.
- Two other guys.
Seems a little light, right? I mean, the contenders all need bullpen help. There's lots of demand for someone like Kahnle. He's good and cheap and will stick around for awhile. And Chicago let him go for three guys who might never sniff the Majors.
But that's not the big problem with this trade.
The big problem is that Kahnle isn't even the best player in the deal. He accompanied the closer he'd been setting up in Chicago, David Robertson. Robertson, the former Yankee closer, owns 123 saves the last 3+ seasons and is signed through next year.
For these three Minor leaguers, only one of whom is really anything to look at, the Yankees didn't just get one top-of-the-line bullpen arm. They got two.
But wait, it gets worse.
Chicago also picked up the albatross contract of Tyler Clippard, owed about $6 million more this season before he becomes a free agent. Clippard has no value to the rebuilding White Sox and was thrown in as a salary dump for the Yankees.
So on top of giving away two first-rate relievers in high demand on the trade market for very little return, White Sox brass also did Yankee brass a $6 million favor.
This sounds like the worst deal since Lincoln agreed to those free theater tickets.
And it just gets worse.
You've probably heard that Greg Bird is out for the season. The flotsam and jetsam the Yankees have inserted at first have left them with the worst performance at that position in the AL. If they're going to make any kind of playoff run, they need someone to play first.
So the White Sox sweetened a sugar-coated deal by adding Todd Frazier to the mix. Frazier doesn't hit for average, but he's a Jersey guy who walks plenty and socks home runs and can slide over to third when Joe Girardi gets tired of watching Chase Headley not hit.
So to recap:
- The Yankees received a closer everyone was after.
- The Yankees received a set-up guy who could be an incredible asset for three years after this one.
- The Yankees received salary relief by dumping Tyler Clippard and his 4.95 ERA out of the pen.
- The Yankees filled a desperate need at first with the acquisition of Todd Frazier.
- The White Sox received New York's 2016 first-round draft pick.
- The White Sox received some organization filler who might possibly turn into something but probably won't.
The days of stupid GMs left us with the firing of Ed Wade in 2005. In fact, most GMs have a GM as their boss, often called a president of baseball operations, and they make decisions as a team using a combination of scouting and advanced statistical analysis. So the White Sox front office must know something I don't. But on the surface, this appears to be significantly less return than Chicago could have received elsewhere, or by swapping out these assets separately.
Finally, consider one more thing, the Yankees' bullpen:
Tommy Kahnle
Adam Warren
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman
I know the bullpen has struggled in the Bronx in recent weeks, but holy smokes that's a lot of heat. C.C. Sabathia never has to pitch another sixth inning again.
Self-knowledge is a wonderful thing. The Chicago White Sox came to the realization last season, the fourth sub-.500 year in a row, that their vector did not point up.
Others might not have reached that conclusion. After all, one of the best pitchers on the planet, Chris Sale, hurled for the White Sox between fashion contretemps. So did promising lefties Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon. David Robertson has saved 110 games the last three seasons. Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier have banged 200 home runs between them over the last three years. And all-around star Adam Eaton (pictured right) has hit and run to 15 wins during that same period.
Shouldn't They Be Great?
That, plus some other assets, are a great core. You could win with a true ace, two more solid starters, two big boppers and a solid outfield as the anchors of an otherwise solid team. Alas, that last part was not the White Sox.
Chicago's South Siders were the ultimate stars and scrubs outfit. They played a .205 hitter with four home runs in center field. Their best bench bat was 35-year-old Justin Morneau, who can't play the field and posted a .303 OBP. This strategy, if indeed it was one, has proven itself flawed. Teams are measured not by their best players, but by their sixth starter, their utility infielder and the depth of their 40-man roster.
The gentlemen named above carried the team, accounting for 71% of their WAR. Because nine guys have to bat, and your top three starters can only pitch 60% of your games, that's a problem. Well, it's a problem if you're trying to win. But if you want to rebuild, it's an asset.
The Advantage of Tradeable Stars
A sell-off of decent players returns middling prospects, but Chris Sale and Adam Eaton brought a haul of developing talent. The White Sox plucked two big pitching prospects from the nation's capital for Eaton. Sale delivered New England's two prized farmhands.
Frazier, 31, (pictured left) and Melky Cabrera, 33 in the last year of their contracts; and Robertson, 32, who has two years left; might move before the trade deadline if they continue to play up to expectation. Robertson has already been the subject of trade talks with the closer-deficient Nats.
Assets begat assets, if the front office is adept. Turning Frazier, Cabrera and Robertson into future value, combined with the retrenchment that started with the Eaton and Sale sales, will allow the White Sox to start over, this time with a more balanced approach.
