The Return of the Big Market Clubs

In 1977, Bill James released his Baseball Abstract, tearing down the house built on BA-HR-RBI and W-L records. He demonstrated empirically how inadequate those measures were in player evaluation, ushering in an era of discernible -- and exploitable -- market inefficiencies.

The exploding capabilities of the PC and the rise of the Internet multiplied the power of James's observations and allowed low-revenue baseball teams -- starting with the Oakland A's -- to compete with the big boys.

The Internet also paved the way for athletes to become famous wherever they played, allowing LeBron James in Cleveland, Stephen Curry in Oakland and Bryce Harper in Washington to emerge as global brands.

That significantly leveled the playing field and removed the nearly insurmountable advantage enjoyed in MLB by the Yankees, who had money, market and intangibles on their side in the 90s and 2000s. They won largely by throwing money at all the best players and managing them wisely.

Money Matters Again
That formula doesn't work anymore, but a new one does. The Yankees still have the largest market and the most money, as do the Dodgers and Cubs in the NL. Instead of investing in free agents, they have invested in the best baseball operations people, in player development and in the secret formula that small market teams were riding to success -- statistical analysis.

Forty years after Bill James threw a hand grenade into baseball's intelligentsia, his wisdom is finally received in total. The big market clubs are taking their reduced advantage in disposable income and leveraging it to raise the best young players. 

Investing in Management Rather Than Labor
Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez Greg Bird, Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks are not an accident or serendipity. They are products of  a well-capitalized player development plan. They teach Baby Bombers to play smart defense, become students of the game, learn patience at the plate, stay even-keeled when behind, and so on.

The fleecing of the White Sox to procure the services of Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson and Todd Frazier was not simply good fortune. Top dollar buys the best front office too. Brian Cashman has done this before in his career, such as when he stole Bobby Abreu from the Phillies for Cory Lidle in 2006. Abreu added 7 WAR to their playoff-run efforts in a little more than two seasons.

The Dodgers have used smart analytics and the power of the purse to build the deepest team in baseball, one that delivers quality well beyond the 25-man roster. So when L.A. suffered a string of injuries this season, a wily front office employed the disabled list to stash pitchers between starts to stretch the roster and then dipped into a pungent minor league system to promote MLB-ready replacements.

And so here we are, back to the 70s when NY and LA dominated the World Series. 

It's Could Be Horrible for the Game
It could be horrible for the game that a few big market clubs make regular playoff visits because it's could be horrible for fans in Cleveland and Milwaukee and Minneapolis and, well, almost everywhere else. It was boring, frankly, to see the same teams win every year, unless you were fans of those teams.

Watching the Yankees ascend within a game of the World Series and knowing that they will soon sign Bryce Harper and a host of other young free agents and dominate the American League again makes me miserable. It should make you miserable too unless you happen to be a Yankee fan. 

But it's the new reality. Now that the playing field has returned to level with respect to intelligence, money matters again.

Stuck in the Middle With You: The NY Yankees

Remember when Brian Cashman was a sort of onomatopoeia? He was named for the main power source of baseball's Evil Empire.

That would make him Brian Conflictedman now. The Yankees are mired in Middle Earth, an elevator stuck between floors, an oxymoron in pinstripes -- whatever metaphor you prefer.

They're Old, Expensive and Mediocre
Their average age is as low as 32 only because of a handful of babes dragging down the mean. Their average performance is average, as befits a 24-25 record. Their upside is down; their downside is up; they are upside down.

Underdog is not coming to save the day. The farm system is, say it with me now, middling. (You were going with average. Tomato tomahto.) As incumbent teams ink their top hurlers to deals, there isn't any pitching on the free agent horizon. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are shaping up as the top names in free agency after this season. In any case, the Yankees are more than a player or two away.

The youngsters on the roster have mostly fizzled: Nova, Severino, Gregorious, Castro -- building on that base gives you the face pictured above.

Rebuilding? Fuggetabouit!
A selloff is untenable, which is just as well, because it's unthinkable. These are the Yankees after all. For once, their legend is a hindrance. What would they trade anyway? If you stuffed Sabathia, ARod, Texeira, Headley, Beltran and Ellsbury in a bag and threw them over the railing of the Circle Line cruise ship, no other team would fish them out, even if Cashman ate the contracts. Gardner, McCann and the relievers would fetch some second rate prospects, but the immediate results would be really ugly and the farm would still need a couple of years of seeding.


The Yankees are stuck in the middle. They have to cash in all their chips this year knowing they likely don't have a winning hand. Baseball Prospectus has their odds of making the playoffs -- including the play-in game -- at roughly one in six, last in the division. 

If they can pick up a starter and a reliable first or third baseman without crippling the future, they should and will. Otherwise they are stuck in the unenviable role of also-rans in both the present and the immediate future. How's it feel to be the Padres, New York?

The Most Interesting Team in the World

Like the Dos Equis Man, they're the most interesting team on earth. And the unlikeliest to be so. The New York Yankees could have been just another deep-pocketed behemoth; instead, their long-toothed roster is crumbling like an untended building. Their Hall of Fame infield never played together in 2013 and the clock struck midnight on their high-priced substitutes. Their bargain-basement fill-ins too.

Barring late-season heroics, injuries and other catastrophes will keep the Yankees from the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. Nonetheless, their winning season has been an amazing accomplishment for which the manager and GM will elude due credit. Consider:

• Players earning $56 million are injured and done for the season. That doesn't include long absences by Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson ($44 million).
• They've gone dumpster diving for replacements and shuffled18 everyday players through the lineup for fewer than 100 at-bats each.
• They've employed 38 everyday players who have contributed less than half-a-win over replacement.
• Two dozen pitchers have taken the ball for them. A third of them have pitched three innings or fewer before being dismissed.
• Their replacement shortstops have accounted for a putrid .229/.289/.316 line all year. Double-back-up third basemen have delivered .226/.291/.324. Catchers, .217/.292/.304. Fill-in first basemen, .229/.295/.395. Left fielders, .240/.292/.404.
• None of those is their weakest hitting position. Their designated hitters have been designated out-makers: .190/.276/.315.  

Despite the mayhem, not a peep of dissatisfaction has emerged from anyone associated with the team, which has vastly out-performed its run production and prevention. Competing in baseball's toughest division and with unprecedented spending constraints, GM Brian Cashman has managed to pare the payroll while adding slugger Alfonso Soriano.

Which brings us to 2014: If team brass are serious about doing the limbo under the salary cap, next season is going to be even more intriguing as they attempt to reduce a $228 million roster to $189 million while replacing two of their best values -- Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. Seven aging players already soak up $94 million (assuming Jeter returns as promised but not withstanding the amount of Alex Rodriguez's $26 million offset by suspension. A good guess would be that the Yankees will be on the hook for about $16 million while ARod serves a 50-game penalty.)

The elephant in the room is the impending free agency of keystoner Robinson Cano, who has carried the Bombers in 2013. Cano has allowed whispers that he's warming the engine of a Brinks truck. The Dodgers have allowed whispers that their money-printing machine is at his disposal. If so, New York will lose their top performer unless they can fashion a back-ended deal that rewards Cano for delaying his riches one year.

GM Brian Cashman has some chips to play though, in large part because he signed half the 2013 team to one-year contracts. Brett Gardner and David Robertson will get nice raises in arbitration but will continue to deliver value. Ivan Nova will remain a bargain in arbitration and spare change can bring back a marginal catching unit. If Cano accepts a back-ended deal and costs just $15 million next year, here's a $120 million team:

C- Stewart/Cervelli 
1B - Teixeira
2B - Cano
SS - Jeter
3B - Rodriguez
OF - Granderson
OF - Gardner/Wells
OF - Suzuki/Soriano
DH - many choices from the roster

SP - Sabathia
SP - Nova
SP - 
SP - 
SP - 
CL - Robertson

RP - 
RP -
RP - 
RP -RP - 
UT -  
UT -
UT -

That leaves $70 million to find and sign an experienced infielder to spell Jeter and ARod, two above-average starters, a deep bench, an entire relief corps and some left-handed bats. If Cashman can convince a couple of free agents to accept back-ended deals, and bring back Mark Reynolds-type veterans on cushion-change contracts, he could produce a pennant-contending team. The big question will be how badly the declining assets decline. 

Don't count them out.