I'm going to go out on a limb and opine that Dellin Betances is awesome. The gigantic, Brooklyn-raised Yankee reliever sports a career ERA of 2.16, a WHIP of one, and 400 strikeouts in 254 innings. Those numbers put him in the company of the two best relievers in baseball -- Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
What makes Betances especially valuable is what you might call Andrew Miller Syndrome: Betances is Joe Girardi's Swiss Army Knife, heading to the hill whenever he's needed. In three years, he's made 217 appearances -- mostly in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. He's entered games with no days' rest about as often as he's pitched with days off. And half his pitches are thrown in high-leverage situations.
A mere 22 saves belie his prodigious value to the Bronx Bombers.
The Betances Arbitration Debacle
You might have heard that Betances took the team to salary arbitration, requesting a tenfold raise to $5 million, citing projections that put his financial worth at about $15 million to the team. The Yankees countered with $3 million, citing precedent. No other non-closer has ever won more than $2 million in his first year of arbitration.
The Yankees' case is based on a flaw in the arbitration rules, which were constructed on an old paradigm that over-values closers and saves. Without the saves to make his case, Betances was forced into the untenable position of having to argue that he is a closer, which he patently isn't, although patently false arguments seem to be the strategy du jour in America.
Needless to say, the Yankees won the arbitration case and Betances will simply double his career earnings this season.
A Great Set-up Man > A Lousy Closer
The larger issue is that the arbitration system makes no sense. Had Betances simply pitched at the same level of production all ninth innings, instead of seventh and eighth innings, he would have cited Aroldis Chapman's $5 million arbitration salary from three years ago and probably exceeded that. The irony there is that Betances pitches in more high leverage situations as a fireman than he would as a closer, who is often asked to protect two- and three-run leads.
Compare Betances with Phillies closer Jeanmar Gomez, a replacement-level pitcher who is Betances' inferior by every measure except saves, 37 of which Gomez fell into last season despite a 4.85 ERA. And by salary: those 37 saves earned Gomez a $4.2 million contract for 2017.
Take a look at the difference between these two pitchers over the last three years:
Betances: 217 games, 245 innings, 5.3 hits/9, 3.4 BB/9, 14.3 K/9, 1.93 ERA, 8.5 WAR
Gomez: 179 games, 205 innings, 10 hits/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 3.68 ERA, 1.5 WAR\
One More Thing, Randy Levine...
There is one more point to make, and that is that Yankees president Randy Levine must have been channeling his inner Jim Dolan in the aftermath of the arbitrator's decision, and now he owes Betances an apology. Levine's denigrating public rant about Betances and his arbitration strategy was mean-spirited and gratuitous. He is going to have to live with the consequences if Betances leaves town as a free agent when he's eligible because the boss treated him poorly in public.
The Fireman of the Year Award doesn't exist anymore. It was retired in 2011, long after the notion of employing your best relief pitcher to extinguish a rally was itself extinguished.
Blame Tony LaRussa and Dennis Eckersley
The closer killed the award, given annually by The Sporting News. When the fireman was in his prime, managers called upon him in any late inning to get key outs with runners on base, then quell the riot for another frame or two.
In 1977, Sparky Lyle won the Cy Young Award (and the Fireman, of course) hurling 137 innings and winning 13 games without ever starting. Mariano Rivera, who tallied nearly three times as many saves in his career as Lyle, averaged about half as many innings per year and never pitched even 80 in a season once he became a closer.
Chapman vs. Miller
Which brings us to the two bullpen back-enders packaged by the Yankees to Chicago and Cleveland to help those two woebegone franchises make a run at a title this year. One flame-throwing lefty, Aroldis Chapman, is closing quite nicely for the Cubs, allowing two earned runs in 13 innings while fanning 22 of 53 batters he faced in August. That's exactly what Theo Epstein and his front office cadre paid a high price for.
Over in the AL, former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona was reunited with lefty flamethrower Andrew Miller, who served as Chapman's eighth-inning caddy in New York. Because he wasn't wed to saves, Miller has been amenable to serve in the old fireman role. He's entered games most often in the seventh inning, and sometimes in the eighth or the sixth. Miller has been used in only three save situations, but like Chapman, he's allowed two earned runs in 15 innings and whiffed 24 of 52 batters.
But they're not the same. They've pitched roughly the same number of innings, faced the nearly same number of batters, smoked roughly the same number and allowed the same number of runs, Miller has been much, much more valuable.
Win Probability Added
By Win Probability Added, a statistic that determines the likelihood that a team will win when a reliever enters a game and the likelihood when he exits (100% in the case of a save), Miller has gifted 1.3 wins to the Indians in just one month, while Chapman has earned just .15 for the Cubs.
That's because a team ahead by two entering the ninth is virtually a lock to nail down the win even without the closer, whose successful "save" adds nearly nothing to the team's win probability. Contrast that to a fireman who enters with the bases juiced and a one-run lead in the seventh. That game is close to a toss-up, but if he can induce a double play, or fan the two batters, he's put out the fire and vastly improved his team's odds of winning.
The risk for a manager of trodding this weeded-over path is that another reliever blows a ninth inning lead and the hometown blowhards call for your head. But a self-confident helmsman like Terry Francona can do it, and a tip of the cap to him for trying it.
Maybe if the Tribe wins the World Series, everyone else will finally try what should never have been abandoned.
I own an automobile. Granted, it's a little four-cylinder Toyota Yaris, bought for 13 grand five years ago, but it runs reliably, hauls my bicycle and sips gas.
If you gave me a better car, say a 2016 Honda Fit, I would drive that instead. (I like small hatchbacks.) I might even be willing to pay something for it, but not much, because I already have an automobile.
If you then offered me a third automobile, even a Mercedes or Lexus, I wouldn't be very interested. What do I need three cars for?
Th-h-h-h-h-he Yankees Win!
The analogy isn't exact, but it suggests why Aroldis Chapman is so much more valuable to the Chicago Cubs than to the New York Yankees, and why the Yankees might have made the Chapman trade announced yesterday even if they believe they are competing for the Wild Card in 2016. As one of three shutdown relievers, Chapman has less value to NY than he has to Chicago, which lacks confidence in their now-former closer, Hector Rondon.
Yankee fans bemoan the loss of their shutdown closer, but they didn't lose their shutdown closer, they lost their shutdown seventh inning. Andrew Miller, whose fastball also blazes white hot, who also fans more batters than a bakery air conditioner and who also allows a run once every new moon will move from the eighth inning to the ninth. Ditto for Dellin Betances, who will shut down the eighth inning rather than the seventh. In other words, the loss to the Yankees is pretty minimal, whether they're contending or not.
The Cubs Win Too!
For the World Champion-or-Bust Cubs, a fireman like Chapman can alter the course of events. His acquisition tells the roster and the fans that they are all-in for a championship. Even more to the point, as the value of closers appears to magnify in October, Chapman may be the piece that catapults the team from playoff guarantee to World Series behemoth.
Cubs boss Theo Epstein relinquished a boatload of young talent for 30 innings of Chapman. Under ordinary circumstances, he got fleeced. But here too, the automobile analogy applies imperfectly. Adam Warren, who excelled in his two Bronx seasons, was getting drilled by NL hitters. Shortstop Gleyber Torres, the key prospect sent to NY, has limited value to a Cubs roster that sports All-Star Addison Russell in that position, and All-Star performers at second and third.
The Perfect Trade
In other words, this is the prototype of a synergistic trade. Each team gained more than it lost, in the Yankees' case, much more. Their high-priced, doddering roster was promising years of pain prior to the acquisition of four legitimate Major League prospects. And If the Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years, nothing those prospects achieve will matter on Chicago's North Side.
Nelson Cruz has scored 15 runs this year. He's smacked 13 home runs. Who says runs scored is a team event?
D. J. LeMahieu, that's who. The Rockies' catcher is batting .423 in 72 at bats and his teammates have pushed him home five times. Five.
The NL team leader in scoring is...the San Diego Padres. That's despite the Majors' lowest Park Factor of 91. (In other words, you can expect the Pads and their opponents to score 9% fewer runs at Petco than at an average ballpark.)
In his first 37 innings, Astros hurler Dallas Keuchel has already garnered 2.3 wins against replacement this season. In his 15-year Major League career, Randy Wolf has earned 2.3 or more wins for his team over an entire season just four times.
The St. Louis Cardinals pace the Majors with a 2.28 team ERA. That's better than all but 21 individual pitchers with at least 24 innings pitched. And two of them are Cardinals.
Adam Wainwright's record right now looks like this: 2-1, 1.44 in 25 innings. Three walks, 18 strikeouts and no home runs allowed. Dang fine work. And that will be his line for the year.
The Yankees are in first place in the AL East thanks to the hitting of ARod and the back end of their bullpen. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller have pitched 27 innings and allowed nine hits while fanning 46 batters. I'd tell you their ERA but they don't have one.
Bruce Chen has delivered a 2.78 ERA for the Orioles in 23 innings so far this year, which leads us to conclude, Bruce Chen is still in the Majors? Oh wait, that's Wei-Yin Chen.
My eyes tell me the Kansas City Royals, whose right fielder is someone named Paulo Orlando, are batting .306 as a team and have scored the second most runs in the Majors. And the Houston Astros have the second best record in baseball and a six game lead in the AL West. I have got to stop taking those pills at night.
Miguel Cabrera is on pace to hit .360 with 32 homers and 110 RBI. Okay, I feel better.
The leading Rookie of the Year candidates at the 1/8th pole are Blue Jays' second baseman Devon Travis, Cubs' rightfielder Jorge Soler and third baseman Kris Bryant, Dbacks' starter Archie Bradley, and Dodgers' center fielder Joc Peterson. Each is older than Bryce Harper.
Over the last two seasons, as a reliever for the Braves, David Carpenter mowed down batters to the tune of 10 strikeouts every nine innings.
In 2015, Carpenter could very well be specializing in seventh innings as the table-setter for flame-throwers Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances.
The 6'8", 260-pound Brooklyn-born closer dominated AL batters last year, whiffing 13.5 per nine en route to general unhittability.
Sandwiched in between is the 6'7" lefty Miller, whose three-year AL East stint has caused 305 batters to return mumbling to the dugout in just 195 frames.
Combined, the trio could produce a lot of lumber-dodging in Yankee stadium. And with ERAs the past two seasons of 2.63, 2.02 and 1.40, this might be the 2015 version of the KC Royals bullpen.
One More Thing, Randy Levine... 
