Remember what an easy call the two MVP races are? Kris Bryant and Mike Trout are far and away the most valuable players in their leagues this year.
But good golly Miss Molly are the Cy Young competitions a quagmire. Depending on how you slice it, one person's ripe fruit is another person's rind.
Taking a gander at the junior circuit first, there are a bevy of candidates.
Rick Porcello went 22-4, 3.15 for the Red Sox, with a league-leading 6-1 strikeout-walk rate.
J.A. Happ, in his season of redemption, earned a 20-4, 3.18 line, though the advanced stats give his Toronto defense a lot of the credit.
Justin Verlander bounced back to 16-9, 3.04, and the AL's lowest WHIP and highest pitching WAR.
The Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka owned a 14-4, 3.07 resume despite a relatively low strikeout rate.
And Chris Sale, for all the drama of his season in Chicago, pitched to a line of 17-10, 3.34 and completed a league-leading six games.
Verlander's year was stealthy-great. He paced the league in strikeouts and and hurled a healthy 227 frames. The advanced stats say his ERA was partially a figment of defense and ballparks. I award him the bronze medal.
Porcello really shined and would get my second place vote. The advanced stats like him but he's a little light on whiffs, which is the one thing a pitcher can claim nearly total credit for.
For my money, the best pitcher in the AL was Cleveland's Corey Kluber. At 18-9, 3.14, he didn't lead the league in anything but was among the best at everything. He anchored the Tribe's killer rotation, pitching a lot innings with an excellent K-BB ratio, a low WHIP and more strikeouts than frames. The advanced stats love him, giving him their highest grades. The playoffs aren't considered for this, but they certainly vindicate this choice.
What's that you say? One of the others is your guy? Go for it. There's no credible argument against any of the pitchers named here.
Just please, don't talk to me about Zach Britton. The guy was a horse out of the Oriole pen, with an 0.54 ERA and 47 saves. He deserves the Rolaids Relief Award, unless Andrew Miller steals it. But the dude pitched a grand total of 67 innings -- one at a time, and that's just a quantum leap easier than throwing six frames each time out. Meausring him against starters is an apples and zebras comparison.
That's not a knock on Britton. Over the last three years, he's thrown 209 innings -- about a full year for a starter. Batters have touched him up for a 1.38 ERA and 0.9 WHIP. In that one year's worth of pitching he earned nine wins against replacement -- roughly MVP level. He's a stud, but so is Mike Trout. And neither one deserves the Cy Young.
The clouds are gathering in the collective wisdom and coalescing into dismissal of the New York Yankees. Go ahead, at your own peril.
For sure, the Yankees are a pale shadow of their former selves. Their stockpile of big ticket free agents are nursing osteoporosis now. Many of their richest players pass the season on the disabled list -- or the suspended list. They have made a habit for two years now of auditioning one reclamation project after another in the hopes of catching lighting in a bottle for 300 at-bats.
It's certainly nothing like 1996-2012, when NYY was a post-season lock -- 16 times in 17 years, reaching seven World Series and capturing five championships. Last year, Joe Girardi's nine won 52.5% of their games, their worst performance in more than two decades. This season, it's a tick below that. The Yankees are basically a .500 team.
And yet, the Bombers are 58-53, just five games out of first in the limp AL East and a mere game out of the Wild Card. In another week or two, Michael Pineda returns to the mound, and ace Masahiro Tanaka could be hurling for them again in September.
They would complement new additions Chase Headley at third and Martin Prado anywhere they want.
Could the Yankees emerge from the scrum among Toronto, Seattle, KC, Cleveland and Tampa for the last playoff slot? Sure, why not? Every team on that list has an Achilles Heel as vulnerable as New York's punchless outfield. Could the Yankees overtake Baltimore for the AL East with a few hot weeks? Stranger things have happened. Heck, Hunter Pence parallel parked yesterday.
Then once they're in, all bets are off. Or on. Or...whichever it is. Baseball playoff series are only slightly less random than GEICO ads.
Which brings us to another piece of conventional wisdom gone astray. Since the trade deadline, it has become doctrine that the Tigers, with their three Cy Young starters, or Oakland, with their own trio of aces, are locks to compete for the pennant. As if Max Scherzer has never lost 2-1 (to the Yankees yesterday). Or Justin Verlander, blown up (seven starts of five runs or more allowed this year).
It's certainly an advantage to throw three aces at an opponent in a seven-game series than not. It's an advantage to throw three aces at opponents all year. But it's not a guarantee of anything, particularly over a handful of games.
The Yankees aren't the favorites. the Tigers and A's are. (Perhaps the stacked Angels' lineup too.) But the favorite entering baseball's playoffs -- much less entering August -- hasn't won the championship the last four years. For that, you have to go back to 2009 when -- well whaddaya know! -- the Yankees won it all.
Dear Mr. Arbitrator,
Thank you so much for saving our franchise $24 million in 2014. We plan to use that money on a new starting pitcher. It will help us remain under the $189 million luxury tax threshold while staying competitive, which in turn will save us millions more in future years.
Gratefully,
Brian Cashman
Bronx, NY
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Dear. Mr. Horowitz-san,
Your most admirable decision is most cherished, like chrysanthemum. Will add $3 million at least to the bids for my services in United States of America. Very sincerely good news that New York Yankees enter bidding aggressively, like Samurai warrior. Many appreciations for you.
Very sincerely yours.
Masahiro Tanaka
Rakuten, Japan
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Dear Fred,
Appreciate the vindication. And not calling me to testify. You certainly stay on our arbitrators list.
Bud
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Dear Mr. Horowitz,
Whatever.
Tony Clark
Executive Director, MLBPA
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Dear Mr. Arbitrator,
Way to go: you cost the bastard twenty-something million dollars! If I could have done that, I wouldn't have bothered drilling him with a fastball. Right on!
Ryan Dempster
Boston, MA
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Dear Mr. Horowitz, sir,
Although I won't be making an further comments about the adversity that I have had to face, I want to take this opportunity to express my deep appreciation for your work in diverting attention away from my situation. With the ghost of Alex Rodriguez hovering over every conversation, people will quickly forget that I made a mistake, which I have admitted. In fact, they will see that I bravely stepped forward and accepted my punishment while ARod self-righteously persisted in tilting at windmills.
I'll be happy to take your questions.
With great respect,
Ryan Braun
Milwaukee, WI
