The Most Interesting Team in the World

Like the Dos Equis Man, they're the most interesting team on earth. And the unlikeliest to be so. The New York Yankees could have been just another deep-pocketed behemoth; instead, their long-toothed roster is crumbling like an untended building. Their Hall of Fame infield never played together in 2013 and the clock struck midnight on their high-priced substitutes. Their bargain-basement fill-ins too.

Barring late-season heroics, injuries and other catastrophes will keep the Yankees from the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. Nonetheless, their winning season has been an amazing accomplishment for which the manager and GM will elude due credit. Consider:

• Players earning $56 million are injured and done for the season. That doesn't include long absences by Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson ($44 million).
• They've gone dumpster diving for replacements and shuffled18 everyday players through the lineup for fewer than 100 at-bats each.
• They've employed 38 everyday players who have contributed less than half-a-win over replacement.
• Two dozen pitchers have taken the ball for them. A third of them have pitched three innings or fewer before being dismissed.
• Their replacement shortstops have accounted for a putrid .229/.289/.316 line all year. Double-back-up third basemen have delivered .226/.291/.324. Catchers, .217/.292/.304. Fill-in first basemen, .229/.295/.395. Left fielders, .240/.292/.404.
• None of those is their weakest hitting position. Their designated hitters have been designated out-makers: .190/.276/.315.  

Despite the mayhem, not a peep of dissatisfaction has emerged from anyone associated with the team, which has vastly out-performed its run production and prevention. Competing in baseball's toughest division and with unprecedented spending constraints, GM Brian Cashman has managed to pare the payroll while adding slugger Alfonso Soriano.

Which brings us to 2014: If team brass are serious about doing the limbo under the salary cap, next season is going to be even more intriguing as they attempt to reduce a $228 million roster to $189 million while replacing two of their best values -- Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. Seven aging players already soak up $94 million (assuming Jeter returns as promised but not withstanding the amount of Alex Rodriguez's $26 million offset by suspension. A good guess would be that the Yankees will be on the hook for about $16 million while ARod serves a 50-game penalty.)

The elephant in the room is the impending free agency of keystoner Robinson Cano, who has carried the Bombers in 2013. Cano has allowed whispers that he's warming the engine of a Brinks truck. The Dodgers have allowed whispers that their money-printing machine is at his disposal. If so, New York will lose their top performer unless they can fashion a back-ended deal that rewards Cano for delaying his riches one year.

GM Brian Cashman has some chips to play though, in large part because he signed half the 2013 team to one-year contracts. Brett Gardner and David Robertson will get nice raises in arbitration but will continue to deliver value. Ivan Nova will remain a bargain in arbitration and spare change can bring back a marginal catching unit. If Cano accepts a back-ended deal and costs just $15 million next year, here's a $120 million team:

C- Stewart/Cervelli 
1B - Teixeira
2B - Cano
SS - Jeter
3B - Rodriguez
OF - Granderson
OF - Gardner/Wells
OF - Suzuki/Soriano
DH - many choices from the roster

SP - Sabathia
SP - Nova
SP - 
SP - 
SP - 
CL - Robertson

RP - 
RP -
RP - 
RP -RP - 
UT -  
UT -
UT -

That leaves $70 million to find and sign an experienced infielder to spell Jeter and ARod, two above-average starters, a deep bench, an entire relief corps and some left-handed bats. If Cashman can convince a couple of free agents to accept back-ended deals, and bring back Mark Reynolds-type veterans on cushion-change contracts, he could produce a pennant-contending team. The big question will be how badly the declining assets decline. 

Don't count them out.

Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing: The Soriano Trade

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. You gotta have somethin', if you wanna be with me."
Billy Preston, 1975

Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.

The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh." 

The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.

But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.

The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th.  NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.

This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them.  At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.

In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.

Groovy Bits of Data Entering the All-Star Break

Alfonso Soriano is poised to become the 14th Major Leaguer to reach 400 homers and 300 steals.

Three-time All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.

Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why. 

The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.

Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done. 

Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.

Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.

*Chris Davis is the second.

The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.

David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.

You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.

Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.

Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk. 

Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
 
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.

Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.

This Punchline Is No Joke

Since the Cubs unwisely signed him into his dotage as if he'd win them an election, Alfonso Soriano has been a punchline. The 8-year/$136 million debacle shone a spotlight on Soriano's poor plate discipline, lackadaisical approach and underwhelming defense, all of which undermined the high batting average and big home run totals.

Soriano has slipped in general estimation from 40/40 superstar keystoner to utterly worthless outfielder in just a few years.The pendulum, has swung farther than is warranted, in large part due to weak performances at the plate in 2009 and 2011. Because he's never walked and no longer runs, Soriano must hit at least .260 with his usual power to have any value.

This year, at age 36 and with two more seasons on his lottery ticket, Soriano has contributed. He's hitting .271/.321/.494 with 19 homers and 22 doubles in less than two-thirds of a season. His contribution, however, has been wasted on the last place Cubs, who are not positioned to exploit his skills even if they have the bankroll to cut his checks.

It has been an annual August exercise for Chicago to place Soriano's name on the waiver wire and for general managers everywhere to yawn. Or giggle. This year, though, several contenders light on the lumber might want to consider placing a claim. This was not originally my idea; I stole it from Jack Moore at Fangraphs.

Imagine you're the Tampa Rays. You're desperate for a decent outfield or DH bat, like one that posts an OPS 18% above league average. You're wallowing in the Wild Card rumble with the league's second-best pitching but a punchless offense weighed down by the offensive floundering of Desmond Jennings, BJ Upton and Luke Scott.

There's no way you're paying the king's ransom, or even a princely portion, for Soriano this year and the two following. Good news: Cubs GM Theo Epstein will be glad to oblige. Chicago will pay most of the tab for someone to take Soriano so they can free up a few drachma while grooming their next pennant-winning team. It will take a couple of prospects to consummate the deal, but Tampa has that in abundance.

If another team is willing to pay nearly full freight on Soriano, they can probably land him without skimming any cream off the minor league system. But more likely, a team with an outfield hole can get the the righthanded Dominican for a 50 centavos on the dollar.

We're probably a year ahead of ourselves. There might still be too much time and money left on Soriano's contract for anyone to deal. When the tipping point arrives, teams should be careful not to dismiss out of hand a guy with 350 homers and 420 doubles on his ledger even if the defense and other skills don't quite add up.