In case you hadn't noticed, relief pitchers are hot commodities around trade deadline these days. Consider the haul the Yankees made off with for a few months of Aroldis Chapman last season. Or what Washington had to relinquish just a week ago for two good-but-not-great bullpen arms.
Now consider Tommy Kahnle, formerly of the White Sox. In 36 innings this season he has walked 7 and whiffed 60. He hasn't allowed a homer in three years (102 innings). Advanced defensive stats say his 2.50 ERA vastly understates his actual value.
Finally, consider that the team controls Kahnle at below-market rates until 2020. That's quite an asset right?
Here's what the White Sox received in return for sending him to the Yankees:
- The #30 prospect, now at Low-A ball (here in Charleston). Not the Yankees' top prospect, whom they received as part of the package for Chapman.
- Two other guys.
Seems a little light, right? I mean, the contenders all need bullpen help. There's lots of demand for someone like Kahnle. He's good and cheap and will stick around for awhile. And Chicago let him go for three guys who might never sniff the Majors.
But that's not the big problem with this trade.
The big problem is that Kahnle isn't even the best player in the deal. He accompanied the closer he'd been setting up in Chicago, David Robertson. Robertson, the former Yankee closer, owns 123 saves the last 3+ seasons and is signed through next year.
For these three Minor leaguers, only one of whom is really anything to look at, the Yankees didn't just get one top-of-the-line bullpen arm. They got two.
But wait, it gets worse.
Chicago also picked up the albatross contract of Tyler Clippard, owed about $6 million more this season before he becomes a free agent. Clippard has no value to the rebuilding White Sox and was thrown in as a salary dump for the Yankees.
So on top of giving away two first-rate relievers in high demand on the trade market for very little return, White Sox brass also did Yankee brass a $6 million favor.
This sounds like the worst deal since Lincoln agreed to those free theater tickets.
And it just gets worse.
You've probably heard that Greg Bird is out for the season. The flotsam and jetsam the Yankees have inserted at first have left them with the worst performance at that position in the AL. If they're going to make any kind of playoff run, they need someone to play first.
So the White Sox sweetened a sugar-coated deal by adding Todd Frazier to the mix. Frazier doesn't hit for average, but he's a Jersey guy who walks plenty and socks home runs and can slide over to third when Joe Girardi gets tired of watching Chase Headley not hit.
So to recap:
- The Yankees received a closer everyone was after.
- The Yankees received a set-up guy who could be an incredible asset for three years after this one.
- The Yankees received salary relief by dumping Tyler Clippard and his 4.95 ERA out of the pen.
- The Yankees filled a desperate need at first with the acquisition of Todd Frazier.
- The White Sox received New York's 2016 first-round draft pick.
- The White Sox received some organization filler who might possibly turn into something but probably won't.
The days of stupid GMs left us with the firing of Ed Wade in 2005. In fact, most GMs have a GM as their boss, often called a president of baseball operations, and they make decisions as a team using a combination of scouting and advanced statistical analysis. So the White Sox front office must know something I don't. But on the surface, this appears to be significantly less return than Chicago could have received elsewhere, or by swapping out these assets separately.
Finally, consider one more thing, the Yankees' bullpen:
Tommy Kahnle
Adam Warren
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman
I know the bullpen has struggled in the Bronx in recent weeks, but holy smokes that's a lot of heat. C.C. Sabathia never has to pitch another sixth inning again.
Since 2015, the Detroit Tigers have been perched on the canyon of crushed dreams. Though they won 86 games last year, it has been clear that their aging core and financial inflexibility were going to lead to ruin.
The Chicago White Sox are less in decline than in continued misery. Lousy since 2011, management finally accepted the inevitable and began selling off parts after last season.
This season, both rosters have been for sale. The White Sox, a stars and scrubs outfit, have auctioned off all their best veterans and stockpiled one of the best farm systems. Detroit is another story.
The Tigers, like the city that hosts them, are stuck. Their roster is fat with aging veterans on regrettable contracts.
- The great Miguel Cabrera, reduced to 13% above average at the plate but lacking a position on the field, is guaranteed $180 million after this season.
- Justin Verlander has a 4.66 ERA and $56 million coming to him.
- Jordan Zimmermann is a sixth starter due $74 million.
- The Victor Martinez ship has sailed and left behind an $18 million bill for next year.
In other words, the best players in Detroit would not be assets to trade partners. Even if the Tigers eat the bulk of the contracts, the combined value in 2017 of these four players has been one win.
While the White Sox convert assets like Chris Sale and Jose Quintana into top prospects, the Tigers are stranded. They probably need to endure this pain for another two years before VMart and Verlander come off the books. They've cashed in J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton might still entice some interest, but the clock can't yet begin on their future.
Self-knowledge is a wonderful thing. The Chicago White Sox came to the realization last season, the fourth sub-.500 year in a row, that their vector did not point up.
Others might not have reached that conclusion. After all, one of the best pitchers on the planet, Chris Sale, hurled for the White Sox between fashion contretemps. So did promising lefties Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon. David Robertson has saved 110 games the last three seasons. Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier have banged 200 home runs between them over the last three years. And all-around star Adam Eaton (pictured right) has hit and run to 15 wins during that same period.
Shouldn't They Be Great?
That, plus some other assets, are a great core. You could win with a true ace, two more solid starters, two big boppers and a solid outfield as the anchors of an otherwise solid team. Alas, that last part was not the White Sox.
Chicago's South Siders were the ultimate stars and scrubs outfit. They played a .205 hitter with four home runs in center field. Their best bench bat was 35-year-old Justin Morneau, who can't play the field and posted a .303 OBP. This strategy, if indeed it was one, has proven itself flawed. Teams are measured not by their best players, but by their sixth starter, their utility infielder and the depth of their 40-man roster.
The gentlemen named above carried the team, accounting for 71% of their WAR. Because nine guys have to bat, and your top three starters can only pitch 60% of your games, that's a problem. Well, it's a problem if you're trying to win. But if you want to rebuild, it's an asset.
The Advantage of Tradeable Stars
A sell-off of decent players returns middling prospects, but Chris Sale and Adam Eaton brought a haul of developing talent. The White Sox plucked two big pitching prospects from the nation's capital for Eaton. Sale delivered New England's two prized farmhands.
Frazier, 31, (pictured left) and Melky Cabrera, 33 in the last year of their contracts; and Robertson, 32, who has two years left; might move before the trade deadline if they continue to play up to expectation. Robertson has already been the subject of trade talks with the closer-deficient Nats.
Assets begat assets, if the front office is adept. Turning Frazier, Cabrera and Robertson into future value, combined with the retrenchment that started with the Eaton and Sale sales, will allow the White Sox to start over, this time with a more balanced approach.
About a fifth of the way through the season we see some trends emerging at the macro level. The Cubs, Mets, Nationals, White Sox, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners have broken strong from the starter's gun. The Braves, Astros, Padres, Twins, A's, Angels, Brewers and Reds have all scuffled badly.
Thirty games is longer than a phase but too short to be definitive. We know that over that period, the cream and the sludge tend to find their way near the top and bottom respectively, but not always. An injury or a raft of weak individual performances can cripple a good team over 30 games while a soft schedule or a few hot bats can catapult an otherwise suspect team.
There are some surprises on those two lists. Which of the hot listers don't we have confidence in?
Recent history has told us never to count out Buck Showalter's Orioles. They have defied expectations and the odds several times in the 2010s. In a year of long balls, they are among the long balliest.
As I've mentioned before, the White Sox had more potential than people were giving them credit for coming into the season. They're fifth in the league in runs scored and first in runs allowed; the latter feels reasonable given the lineup but it's unlikely that Chris Sale -- much less Jose Quintana and Mat Latos -- will go all season without losing, especially as Latos needs to become acquainted with the strikeout.
The Nats, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox have so far exhibited truth in advertising. That leaves the Mariners, at 21-13 the leader in the AL West despite an upside-down charge out of the gate. Seattle, long a contingent of whiffle ball bats, is scoring the fourth most runs in the junior circuit. Their pitching has been even better, led by a lights-out bullpen and not by King Felix's paltry 1.5 K/BB ratio.
Relief pitching is notoriously subject to the winds, and after Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, there aren't a whole lot of everyday players you'd bet your Starbucks money on (unless you count Adam Lind and his three walks in 93 PA.) The AL West is up for grabs, especially with Houston's putrid start, but the Mariners are the best bet to collapse back into the pack.
A month ago, I mentioned how several apparently undistinguished teams tickled my fancy for 2016. That's not a prediction, just an observation that the elements exist for a surprising season.
In this column I mentioned the Miami Marlins, who at the time included a second baseman whose PR people had not yet cooked up a statement blaming a ghost for his positive steroid test.
I hadn't made my way back to the theme until now, by which time, alas, my next candidate had already started the campaign like a house on fire. At the risk of claiming to create a bandwagon that is already in transit, allow me to introduce you to your 2016 Chicago White Sox.
Minor Deals Can Add Up
The front office played small ball this off season, signing a handful of low-cost reclamation projects like Mat Latos, Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro, Jimmy Rollins and Austin Jackson. No one could have predicted any would deliver as Latos has already, but this strategy can sometimes produce life by a thousand cuts.
Then they traded for first-half phenom Todd Frazier to handle the hot corner and polymath Brett Lawrie to staff the keystone. Added to Melky Cabrera, slugger Jose Abreu and defensive whiz Adam Eaton, that could be a pretty potent lineup. If young outfielder Avisail Garcia scratches his potential, so much the better.
Rotation is the Wild Card
In the winter prior to last season, the Pale Hose inked a cabal of free agents, including pitchers David Robertson and Zach Duke. With Chris Sale (left) playing the role of this generation's Randy Johnson Chicago has a solid anchor on the rotation. Add promising lefties Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon and some semblance of production from Latos, Duke, what's left of John Danks or someone else, the Sox could stymie opposing hitters enough to hand Robertson some save opportunities and stay in the mix in the uninspiring AL Central.
There isn't an algorithm alive today that can project the bench or the relief corps, or predict how well this contingent will avoid the strains, pains and automobiles that bedevil some contenders. But given what they have, it's definitely not a stretch to say the White Sox could be playing into October.
"If the phone doesn't ring, it's me." --Jimmy Buffett
By now you are awash in the details about 1B/DH Adam LaRoche leaving a guaranteed $13 million and a spot on the White Sox roster because they told him his teenage son wasn't welcome in the clubhouse everyday. If you haven't heard about it, read this Chicago Tribune article from March 18 and this report by the local Chicago NBC TV station three days later.
The outline of the situation is this: LaRoche believed he had an oral agreement with the Sox to bring his son into the clubhouse every day. 14-year-old Drake LaRoche had a uniform and a locker and was a beloved team member, according to most players. White Sox president Kenny Williams says that some team members have privately expressed their displeasure at having a child in the clubhouse and he asked LaRoche to scale it back with Drake.
And so, we can all agree that the White Sox have the right to determine workplace rules and have a responsibility to the entire team, not just Adam LaRoche. And we can admire that LaRoche would sacrifice so much to be with his son.
But this is not about familial relations or clubhouse dynamics or Drake himself. It's not about LaRoche's performance, which was dismal last year in his age-35 season and, if repeated, would clog a roster spot and consume $13 million.
This is about organizational dynamics and in particular about communication. Dissertations and books have been written describing the importance of open and honest organizational communication; about ensuring that loops of communication get closed, that lines of communication run up and down hierarchies, that communication be consistent in content throughout an organization, and that communication cross platforms so that people can learn information with whichever sense works best for them.
The problem in Chicago appears to be this: the team had a poorly articulated policy that applied to everyone but Adam LaRoche. Whether one or more people expressed dismay over the exception or management simply got tired of it, Williams apparently communicated that in a confused and inconsistent way. LaRoche, who believed the team had broached a clearly understood agreement with him, evidently felt betrayed.
The fallout was public chest pounding by key ballclub figures like Chris Sale and, I'm willing to bet, private muttering by others in defense of the team, all of which amounts to a further breakdown in open, honest communication.
Will this harm the White Sox's performance on the field in 2016? It certainly can't help, but baseball is less a team game than a game of combined individual actions. It's likely to fade away over the long slog of the season, unless the issue of clubhouse visitors pops out of its molehill again. LaRoche performed below replacement level last season, so if his replacement flashes even modest competence his on-field contributions will be easily forgotten.
While the baseball world is busy waving farewell to Derek Jeter, another icon is making his way off the stage without the fanfare or the parting gifts.
Paul Konerko came up with the Dodgers and was traded to the Reds in his second season, but has played all but 75 of his 2300 games with the Chicago White Sox over an 18-year career. Now 38, "Paulie" has been reduced to part-time status befitting a first baseman who has lost his big bat.
Konerko has smacked 436 career bombs and driven home 1400 for the ChiSox, earning six All-Star berths and MVP votes following five seasons. He's topped 30 HR seven times and 100 RBI six times with two other seasons of 99 and 97 runs driven in. His career .844 OPS without speed or defense suggests a good player who is no threat to enter Cooperstown.
Konerko's best season was 2010, at age 34, when he went .312/.393/.584 with 39 HR, career bests at OBP and SLG. Since then, his OPS has declined dramatically each year, to the point that last year he was costing the team wins. He signed a one-year "last hurrah" $2.5 million deal this year so he could take a victory lap in Second City, but has mostly played bench warmer, hitting .171 in half-time duty with two homers.
Of course, in another sense, his career year was '05, at age 29, when he went yard 40 times and led the ChiSox to 99 victories and a World Series sweep of Houston. Without question, Paulie was the heart and soul of that championship team, which boasted few other stars -- Mark Buerhle and the last wisps of Frank Thomas about the only other notable contributors.
Konerko's big bat and quiet leadership are beloved on the South side and about the only things, besides perhaps another Stanley Cup, the city will have to celebrate this summer. So a tip of the cap to Paul Konerko. Consider this homage your parting gift.
Well, that and $130 million lifetime earnings.
