In 2013, the Toronto Blue Jays pushed their chips to the middle of the table, acquiring Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle and others for a run at the sagging AL East. At 74-88, the gamble went bust, and it only improved a little the next year when the Jays finished 83-79.
The team stayed together, though, and with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion anchoring the lineup, and of course the addition of MVP Josh Donaldson, Toronto catapulted to the top of the AL standings in 2015. The moves made by GM Alex Anthopoulos in the 2013 took two years to pay dividends.
Cross the continent and a similar scenario might appear to be playing out in San Diego. The Padres' new GM, A.J. Preller, collected a bulk set of spare parts -- Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel -- for renewed relevance in the NL West. The Friars were becoming MLB's version of the Premier League's Everton -- a perennial also-ran rarely good or bad enough to be noticed.
They got noticed -- for stinking up the joint, just as the Blue Jays had, skidding to the same 74-88 result. Kemp and Myers were mostly a disaster, Kimbrel suffered his worst season (he was merely brilliant) and Upton performed as advertised.
Now in 2016, are the Priests poised to become this year's Blue Jay? No, no they are not. Here's why.
Kemp and Myers did not stumble last season; they are both broken. Once the favorite toys in the chest -- Myers is a former Rookie of the Year and Kemp had his 2011 MVP stolen by Ryan Braun's doping -- neither is that anymore. Injuries have reduced Kemp to a replacement player -- 1.7 WAR the last two seasons -- and the league has caught on to Myers and his free-swinging ways. Each is a disaster in the field, Kemp yet more cringe-inducing than Myers.
Worse, Kimbrel is gone, traded for prospects, as are Joaquin Benoit and Ian Kennedy, with little on the farm to replace them. Upton, the team's lone salvation, has moved on too, and who can blame him? San Diego did ink reliever Ryan Madson to an overstuffed three-year deal, but is otherwise without much in the way of assets.
Worse, unlike the AL East, the NL West is ascendant. The Dodgers still have a pile of talent and money. The Giants are salivating at the even year with Johnny Cueto aboard. Arizona added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to a squad already showing signs of emergence. The Padres are toast in that crowd.
Where the Blue Jays took a step forward their second year after the big moves, the Padres are more likely to step back. This is a team that needs to admit it is in complete rebuild and get about jettisoning all the veteran talent it can. The alternative is to remain like Everton, neither champion nor relegation fodder, just there, filling up the standings.
Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts
13 February 2016
16 October 2015
Blue Jays-Royals: Forget the Caricature
If you were drawing a cartoon of the President of the United States of America, you'd give him dumbo ears, a long face with a Rhode Island-sized forehead and a mole that nearly blots out his nose. There's some truth in the caricature, but it's blown out of proportion.
It's easy to fall into the same trap with the Royals-Blue Jays series. You will hear a lot of pitching versus hitting about this match-up. For sure, the Blue Jays were baseball's best team on offense, mashing 232 home runs. And it's true the Royals flash leather, particularly in the outfield, and boast a shutdown bullpen.
But it's a much more nuanced series. For one, these are not the 2014 hitless wonder Royals. That team called three infield singles a rally. This team boasts six above-average starters with the bat and the same basepath scorchers who ran opposing teams ragged last season. Three Royals bopped 20+ home runs.
At the same time, KC's starting rotation is more like five set-up men for the vaunted bullpen. Absent James Shields, last year's ace, its ERA has jumped 30 points.
On the other side of the ledger, the Blue Jays are more than wallbangers. Their moundsmen finished fifth best in the AL, anchored by Cy Young candidate David Price and supported by Marcus Stroman, who posted a 1.67 ERA in 27 frames following return from injury. The bullpen of Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez and Liam Hendricks (Brett Cecil and his sub-one WHIP is on the shelf) gave opponents fits, posting a 137 ERA+.
The real contrast between these two teams, besides the admitted difference in home run power, is the bench. Kansas City's cupboard is largely bare. It contains two defensive replacement/speedsters -- Terrence Gore and Jarrod Dyson, and that's it. As a result, manager Ned Yost simply prints out a pdf of his daily lineup each night. Toronto, by contrast, platoons Chris Colabello and Justin Smoak at first, with the backup on any given night serving as first bench option.
The Royals are more narrowly suited to their home park but the Blue Jays have the superior roster. Both teams have shown grit by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory -- the Royals in Game Three and the Blue Jays in the series. There's no telling which starving fan base gets rewarded with a World Series appearance -- and that's the way we like it.
It's easy to fall into the same trap with the Royals-Blue Jays series. You will hear a lot of pitching versus hitting about this match-up. For sure, the Blue Jays were baseball's best team on offense, mashing 232 home runs. And it's true the Royals flash leather, particularly in the outfield, and boast a shutdown bullpen.
But it's a much more nuanced series. For one, these are not the 2014 hitless wonder Royals. That team called three infield singles a rally. This team boasts six above-average starters with the bat and the same basepath scorchers who ran opposing teams ragged last season. Three Royals bopped 20+ home runs.
At the same time, KC's starting rotation is more like five set-up men for the vaunted bullpen. Absent James Shields, last year's ace, its ERA has jumped 30 points.
On the other side of the ledger, the Blue Jays are more than wallbangers. Their moundsmen finished fifth best in the AL, anchored by Cy Young candidate David Price and supported by Marcus Stroman, who posted a 1.67 ERA in 27 frames following return from injury. The bullpen of Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez and Liam Hendricks (Brett Cecil and his sub-one WHIP is on the shelf) gave opponents fits, posting a 137 ERA+.
The real contrast between these two teams, besides the admitted difference in home run power, is the bench. Kansas City's cupboard is largely bare. It contains two defensive replacement/speedsters -- Terrence Gore and Jarrod Dyson, and that's it. As a result, manager Ned Yost simply prints out a pdf of his daily lineup each night. Toronto, by contrast, platoons Chris Colabello and Justin Smoak at first, with the backup on any given night serving as first bench option.
The Royals are more narrowly suited to their home park but the Blue Jays have the superior roster. Both teams have shown grit by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory -- the Royals in Game Three and the Blue Jays in the series. There's no telling which starving fan base gets rewarded with a World Series appearance -- and that's the way we like it.
29 November 2014
The Window Is Open In the A.L. Least
A few years ago the Milwaukee Brewers espied a division in retreat and a closing window on Prince Fielder's contract, and decided to make a run for it when they could. So they flipped prospects for high-value rentals like Zack Greinke and Randy Wolf, and powered their way to a 96-win division title. That they rolled snake-eyes in the post-season tournament changes nothing about the success of the plan.
The Toronto Blue Jays have taken notice. With the Yankees uncharacteristically pinching pennies, not to mention becoming more decrepit by the day; the Red Sox attempting to climb out of the basement with a fallow rotation; Tampa Bay in retreat with the departure of their GM and manager; and expectations of regression in Baltimore; the AL East is suddenly open for business like it hasn't been in two decades. The Jays, who last tasted success in their '92 and '93 championships, are doubling down.
The trade they just swung with Oakland that brought All Star third baseman Josh Donaldson for infielder Brett Lawrie and two prospects suggests Toronto has not forsaken its all-in philosophy initiated last year when they traded for R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes, among others. Donaldson brings his 135 OPS+, his fine base running and superb defense to a team already thick with hitters -- Jose Bautista, Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind, plus recent free agent acquisition Russell Martin.
There's patching still to be done at second and the outfield, but the Jays scored the fourth most runs in the AL last year and figure to be strong again offensively even with bare spots in the lineup. The main flaw in their 83-79 campaign was pitching, ninth in the league in '14, before R.A. Dickey turned 40 and Mark Buehrle turned 36.
So look for GM Alex Anthopoulos to snag a couple of cheap outfield solutions and then offer heaping piles of Canadian dollars -- or trade-bait prospects -- for a top-of-the-rotation starter or two. The time has never been more right, nor the odds so much in Toronto's favor, to make a run at a pennant.
The Toronto Blue Jays have taken notice. With the Yankees uncharacteristically pinching pennies, not to mention becoming more decrepit by the day; the Red Sox attempting to climb out of the basement with a fallow rotation; Tampa Bay in retreat with the departure of their GM and manager; and expectations of regression in Baltimore; the AL East is suddenly open for business like it hasn't been in two decades. The Jays, who last tasted success in their '92 and '93 championships, are doubling down.
The trade they just swung with Oakland that brought All Star third baseman Josh Donaldson for infielder Brett Lawrie and two prospects suggests Toronto has not forsaken its all-in philosophy initiated last year when they traded for R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes, among others. Donaldson brings his 135 OPS+, his fine base running and superb defense to a team already thick with hitters -- Jose Bautista, Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind, plus recent free agent acquisition Russell Martin.
There's patching still to be done at second and the outfield, but the Jays scored the fourth most runs in the AL last year and figure to be strong again offensively even with bare spots in the lineup. The main flaw in their 83-79 campaign was pitching, ninth in the league in '14, before R.A. Dickey turned 40 and Mark Buehrle turned 36.
So look for GM Alex Anthopoulos to snag a couple of cheap outfield solutions and then offer heaping piles of Canadian dollars -- or trade-bait prospects -- for a top-of-the-rotation starter or two. The time has never been more right, nor the odds so much in Toronto's favor, to make a run at a pennant.
15 June 2014
The Pogo Stick Effect and Success in Toronto
"There's nothing I hate worse than nothing. Nothing keeps me up at night. I toss and turn over nothing. Nothing could cause a great big fight." Edie Brickell & the New Bohemians
Energized by the all-in importation of cast-off stars, the Toronto Blue Jays lost 88 games and finished in the AL East cellar last season. So in the off-season, GM Alex Anthopoulos evaluated his squad, surveyed the landscape, and decided that his work was done.
Sure, he upgraded a woeful catching corps by inking Dioner Navarro and a couple of moundsmen, including Tomo Ohka, whose last good season was with Montreal. But aside from that, these are your father's Toronto Blue Jays.
Canadians had to be wondering whether the club was short on loonies or just complacent. Now a third of the way through 2014 they're deciding whether Anthopoulos is brilliant or lucky to be sitting comfortably atop the AL East.
I'd vote for smart. Anthopoulos was counting on the pogo stick effect, the same one that gave us the 1991 Twins, the 2012 Giants and, in reverse, the 2013 Nationals and 2014 Pirates.
The theory is simple and familiar. Uber-talented teams that vastly under-perform for reasons other than age are likely to bounce back the following year. Lightly-talented clubs that over-perform have the same tendency, in reverse.
The '87 and '88 Twins won their division, but scuffled with the same core lineup in '89 and '90. Still anchored by Hrbeck, Puckett, Gagne, Gene Larkin and catcher Brian Harper, Minnesota rebounded in '91 and won the most dramatic World Series in baseball history. In the interim, GM Andy McPhail had overhauled the pitching but left the lineup alone on the expectation that they would deliver according to their talent.
The Giants, repeat champs in 2012, slumped badly in '13 and altered virtually nothing, en route to baseball's best record thus far. Only two regulars are different: Tim Hudson replaced Barry Zito in the rotation (duh.) and Mike Morse stepped in when Melky Cabrera bolted.
The Nats flipped the paradigm when they finally busted out with the Majors' best record from their raw young talent in 2012 following years of futility. Management had expected another year of youth an inexperience that year and got it instead in 2013, when Washington danced around .500 most of the season.
A similar scenario was sketched out for the Pirates this year in this space, and they are delivering. They broke out with 94 wins a year early and are paying the piper this season.
Which brings us to the Blue Jays. They reeled in too much talent in 2013 -- to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion they added Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera -- to fail for long. Though Johnson has flamed out and Dickey has failed to live up to billing, the rest of the crew is performing admirably (so far.)
The Jays have hit a rough patch in the last week and there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off. But their success so far isn't a shock if you look at the names in the lineup. It shows that sometimes the best course of action, even following failure, is nothing.
Energized by the all-in importation of cast-off stars, the Toronto Blue Jays lost 88 games and finished in the AL East cellar last season. So in the off-season, GM Alex Anthopoulos evaluated his squad, surveyed the landscape, and decided that his work was done.
Sure, he upgraded a woeful catching corps by inking Dioner Navarro and a couple of moundsmen, including Tomo Ohka, whose last good season was with Montreal. But aside from that, these are your father's Toronto Blue Jays.
Canadians had to be wondering whether the club was short on loonies or just complacent. Now a third of the way through 2014 they're deciding whether Anthopoulos is brilliant or lucky to be sitting comfortably atop the AL East.
I'd vote for smart. Anthopoulos was counting on the pogo stick effect, the same one that gave us the 1991 Twins, the 2012 Giants and, in reverse, the 2013 Nationals and 2014 Pirates.
The theory is simple and familiar. Uber-talented teams that vastly under-perform for reasons other than age are likely to bounce back the following year. Lightly-talented clubs that over-perform have the same tendency, in reverse.
The '87 and '88 Twins won their division, but scuffled with the same core lineup in '89 and '90. Still anchored by Hrbeck, Puckett, Gagne, Gene Larkin and catcher Brian Harper, Minnesota rebounded in '91 and won the most dramatic World Series in baseball history. In the interim, GM Andy McPhail had overhauled the pitching but left the lineup alone on the expectation that they would deliver according to their talent.
The Giants, repeat champs in 2012, slumped badly in '13 and altered virtually nothing, en route to baseball's best record thus far. Only two regulars are different: Tim Hudson replaced Barry Zito in the rotation (duh.) and Mike Morse stepped in when Melky Cabrera bolted.
The Nats flipped the paradigm when they finally busted out with the Majors' best record from their raw young talent in 2012 following years of futility. Management had expected another year of youth an inexperience that year and got it instead in 2013, when Washington danced around .500 most of the season.
A similar scenario was sketched out for the Pirates this year in this space, and they are delivering. They broke out with 94 wins a year early and are paying the piper this season.
Which brings us to the Blue Jays. They reeled in too much talent in 2013 -- to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion they added Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera -- to fail for long. Though Johnson has flamed out and Dickey has failed to live up to billing, the rest of the crew is performing admirably (so far.)
The Jays have hit a rough patch in the last week and there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off. But their success so far isn't a shock if you look at the names in the lineup. It shows that sometimes the best course of action, even following failure, is nothing.
28 December 2013
More Questions Without Answers
Round Two of our foray into the off-season navel-gazing we're compelled to do unless we want to watch the Beef O'Brady Bowl showdown featuring East Cackalacky and Northern Midwest Rustbelt State Tech. Or read a book:
Question: What about Bronson Arroyo?
Which part of consistent, above-average workhorse don't baseball GMs like? Dude's hurled nine consecutive years of 32+ starts (he only made 29 starts and six relief appearances in his first full season) and piled up 27 wins against replacement for his employers. Sure he's 37, but he's twirled more than 404 innings the last two seasons with a nearly 4-1 strikeout-walk ratio and an above-average ERA in Cincinnati's Great American Homer Park.
What's more, the guy's fastball is a change-up, so it's not like his heater will cool with age and cost him effectiveness. Arroyo introduced batters to Uncle Charlie more than anyone else last year, and they responded by with a Mario Mendoza imitation. Arroyo will decline gradually; indeed, he's already begun, and it's been so gradual it's not even discernible yet. If Dan Haren can get a contract after disappointing more people in D.C. than Congress, how does Arroyo not warrant a nibble?
Other third starters are latching on at $8-$10 million per, so if the 6'4" northpaw is reconciled to two years of that he should find a willing partner before Spring Training.
Question: What are the Orioles doing?
They swapped their closer for a garden-variety second baseman, signed Oakland's closer (are there scarier words than that?) for $15 million over two years and then nixed the deal without explanation. They sent their redundant third baseman (perhaps you've heard of Manny Machado) packing for a hit-challenged outfielder and left themselves the fifth worst AL pitching staff stripped of 40% of their starters.
The Backyard Birds need to acquire some quality arms or they're going to drop from 2012 fluke to 2014 puke. The good news is that Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza all remain unclaimed, and the bidding has begun on Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who authored a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA and saved the only Nippon Baseball championship for Rakuten. Get out your checkbook, Peter Angelos.
Question: Is standing pat in Toronto's a strategy or a white flag?
You may remember that this time last year the Blue Jays were bulking up with R.A. Dickey and the cast-offs from Miami, a strategy that worked like a health insurance website. This year, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos upgraded the sinkhole at catcher and then seemingly took the winter off. As things stand now, the lineup north of the border will look eerily familiar. Will it perform just as badly?
There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about this team. The big thumpers thumped as expected -- 130 homers from five key starters. But Melky Cabrera struggled with health issues, maybe the lack of steroids pulsing through his veins chief among them. The keystone duo of Emilio Bonafacio and Macier Izturis hit literally half as well as a Major Leaguer. And the bench is thinner than Rob Ford's excuses.
The pitching is great, as long as you're not particular about having a #1 starter. Or a #2. Or much after Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who each took another step towards 40 in the off-season. The relief corps excelled, yet the team ERA rose to fourth worst in the league, and bullpens are notoriously fickle. Double-A, as the GM is known, needs to sneak back into the marketplace for an infielder, an outfielder and an arm, at the very least. Otherwise, the Jays could go down as an historically bad experiment.
Question: What about Bronson Arroyo?
Which part of consistent, above-average workhorse don't baseball GMs like? Dude's hurled nine consecutive years of 32+ starts (he only made 29 starts and six relief appearances in his first full season) and piled up 27 wins against replacement for his employers. Sure he's 37, but he's twirled more than 404 innings the last two seasons with a nearly 4-1 strikeout-walk ratio and an above-average ERA in Cincinnati's Great American Homer Park.
What's more, the guy's fastball is a change-up, so it's not like his heater will cool with age and cost him effectiveness. Arroyo introduced batters to Uncle Charlie more than anyone else last year, and they responded by with a Mario Mendoza imitation. Arroyo will decline gradually; indeed, he's already begun, and it's been so gradual it's not even discernible yet. If Dan Haren can get a contract after disappointing more people in D.C. than Congress, how does Arroyo not warrant a nibble?
Other third starters are latching on at $8-$10 million per, so if the 6'4" northpaw is reconciled to two years of that he should find a willing partner before Spring Training.
Question: What are the Orioles doing?
They swapped their closer for a garden-variety second baseman, signed Oakland's closer (are there scarier words than that?) for $15 million over two years and then nixed the deal without explanation. They sent their redundant third baseman (perhaps you've heard of Manny Machado) packing for a hit-challenged outfielder and left themselves the fifth worst AL pitching staff stripped of 40% of their starters.
The Backyard Birds need to acquire some quality arms or they're going to drop from 2012 fluke to 2014 puke. The good news is that Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza all remain unclaimed, and the bidding has begun on Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who authored a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA and saved the only Nippon Baseball championship for Rakuten. Get out your checkbook, Peter Angelos.
Question: Is standing pat in Toronto's a strategy or a white flag?
You may remember that this time last year the Blue Jays were bulking up with R.A. Dickey and the cast-offs from Miami, a strategy that worked like a health insurance website. This year, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos upgraded the sinkhole at catcher and then seemingly took the winter off. As things stand now, the lineup north of the border will look eerily familiar. Will it perform just as badly?
There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about this team. The big thumpers thumped as expected -- 130 homers from five key starters. But Melky Cabrera struggled with health issues, maybe the lack of steroids pulsing through his veins chief among them. The keystone duo of Emilio Bonafacio and Macier Izturis hit literally half as well as a Major Leaguer. And the bench is thinner than Rob Ford's excuses.
The pitching is great, as long as you're not particular about having a #1 starter. Or a #2. Or much after Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who each took another step towards 40 in the off-season. The relief corps excelled, yet the team ERA rose to fourth worst in the league, and bullpens are notoriously fickle. Double-A, as the GM is known, needs to sneak back into the marketplace for an infielder, an outfielder and an arm, at the very least. Otherwise, the Jays could go down as an historically bad experiment.
23 June 2013
13 June 2013
Is It Time To Give Up On the Blue Jays?
Sabermetricians expend a lot of electrons discussing the stabilization of batting and pitching statistics. It's helpful to know how long players can be "hot" or "cold" before the record reflects their actual ability.
In other words, we know that when a player goes yard thrice on Opening Day it's unlikely he's going yard thrice-a-night. But if he hits 15 home runs in the season's first half, is he a good bet to hit 15 in the second half?
Well, the answer happens to be yes. In fact, the research says home runs tend to stabilize after about 50 games. A hitter with two long balls in 50 games (assuming he's actually getting his at-bats in those games) is probably a seven homer weakling, more or less. A hitter with 15 jacks in 50 games is generally a 49-homer slugmeister, again more or less. (Not all players are the same. Your mileage may vary.)
Similar research has been done on a variety of statistics for hitters and pitchers. For batsmen, BABIP is the most volatile -- that is, it has the least to do with the innate ability of the hitter and takes years to normalize. Strikeout and walk rates are among the quickest to reach their "natural" state because batters tend to be inclined toward or against them in every plate appearance.
Fair enough, but what about teams? At what point is an unheralded team that's piling up the wins no longer streaking but actually performing at a higher level? At what point is a promising squad with a bad record no longer just slumping but actually over-rated?
I'm not aware that there is any research on this. It makes sense that this is geometrically harder to determine. After all, a team comprises many players each of whom may be slumping or streaking beyond their natural ability. Injuries can prevent the best players from contributing their talents, while unexpected call-ups can reveal talent hitherto unrecognized. Teams change their player mix, so that the Mudville nine that dropped eight straight in May may bear little resemblance to the Casey-led behemoths winning 11 consecutive in August.
This question is of massive gravity to the management of franchises in Southern California and Southeastern Canada, and in the case of the squad in Ontario, 64 games may be that point. It may be time -- indeed, I'm asserting that it is time -- to determine that the Blue Jays are, in fact, their record, and management should expand its time horizon beyond this season.
"Calm down; it's a long season," you're muttering to yourself, or perhaps to your dog, or your autographed photo of Ron from Boston. It's all too true, and it's ointment for the pain being felt in Los Angeles and Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Angels and Dodgers are counting on returns to form or from injury by the likes of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols; and Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez.
It's different in Toronto. The culprits for a last place start in baseball's toughest division are a 37-year-old, league-switching, scroogie-thrower with a questionable pedigree (R.A. Dickey); a speed merchant with recurring leg issues (Jose Reyes); a once-promising young hurler who missed most of 2011 and didn't fully rebound in 2012 (Josh Johnson); and a chemical-fueled batting titlist who's returned to his pre-drug career norms (Melky Cabrera). There isn't much untapped upside in that crowd.
Moreover, the key cogs imported from Miami crashed and burned together last year. Had they flipped the pancake this year we would have dismissed 2012 as a fluke. But having thrown another third-of-a-season on the funeral pyre they have demonstrated that this group is not playoff material. The record suggests that combining a failed trio, a couple of questionable assets and a 73-win squad isn't the formula for triumph.
If you accept the premise that it's over north of the border, what now? Most of their players have long and expensive contracts that will be hard to move. Several of them are getting on in years. The Blue Jays were built to win for a year or two while Boston and New York took a breather, (the second part of that equation also hasn't added up) so where does re-tooling get them?
Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him -- again. He might be able to flip Johnson and Mark Buehrle to contenders for some prospects, but after that it's pennies on the dollar. In a division pregnant with talent it sure sucks to be Toronto right now.
In other words, we know that when a player goes yard thrice on Opening Day it's unlikely he's going yard thrice-a-night. But if he hits 15 home runs in the season's first half, is he a good bet to hit 15 in the second half?
Well, the answer happens to be yes. In fact, the research says home runs tend to stabilize after about 50 games. A hitter with two long balls in 50 games (assuming he's actually getting his at-bats in those games) is probably a seven homer weakling, more or less. A hitter with 15 jacks in 50 games is generally a 49-homer slugmeister, again more or less. (Not all players are the same. Your mileage may vary.)
Similar research has been done on a variety of statistics for hitters and pitchers. For batsmen, BABIP is the most volatile -- that is, it has the least to do with the innate ability of the hitter and takes years to normalize. Strikeout and walk rates are among the quickest to reach their "natural" state because batters tend to be inclined toward or against them in every plate appearance.
Fair enough, but what about teams? At what point is an unheralded team that's piling up the wins no longer streaking but actually performing at a higher level? At what point is a promising squad with a bad record no longer just slumping but actually over-rated?
I'm not aware that there is any research on this. It makes sense that this is geometrically harder to determine. After all, a team comprises many players each of whom may be slumping or streaking beyond their natural ability. Injuries can prevent the best players from contributing their talents, while unexpected call-ups can reveal talent hitherto unrecognized. Teams change their player mix, so that the Mudville nine that dropped eight straight in May may bear little resemblance to the Casey-led behemoths winning 11 consecutive in August.
This question is of massive gravity to the management of franchises in Southern California and Southeastern Canada, and in the case of the squad in Ontario, 64 games may be that point. It may be time -- indeed, I'm asserting that it is time -- to determine that the Blue Jays are, in fact, their record, and management should expand its time horizon beyond this season.
"Calm down; it's a long season," you're muttering to yourself, or perhaps to your dog, or your autographed photo of Ron from Boston. It's all too true, and it's ointment for the pain being felt in Los Angeles and Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Angels and Dodgers are counting on returns to form or from injury by the likes of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols; and Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez.
It's different in Toronto. The culprits for a last place start in baseball's toughest division are a 37-year-old, league-switching, scroogie-thrower with a questionable pedigree (R.A. Dickey); a speed merchant with recurring leg issues (Jose Reyes); a once-promising young hurler who missed most of 2011 and didn't fully rebound in 2012 (Josh Johnson); and a chemical-fueled batting titlist who's returned to his pre-drug career norms (Melky Cabrera). There isn't much untapped upside in that crowd.
Moreover, the key cogs imported from Miami crashed and burned together last year. Had they flipped the pancake this year we would have dismissed 2012 as a fluke. But having thrown another third-of-a-season on the funeral pyre they have demonstrated that this group is not playoff material. The record suggests that combining a failed trio, a couple of questionable assets and a 73-win squad isn't the formula for triumph.
If you accept the premise that it's over north of the border, what now? Most of their players have long and expensive contracts that will be hard to move. Several of them are getting on in years. The Blue Jays were built to win for a year or two while Boston and New York took a breather, (the second part of that equation also hasn't added up) so where does re-tooling get them?
Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him -- again. He might be able to flip Johnson and Mark Buehrle to contenders for some prospects, but after that it's pennies on the dollar. In a division pregnant with talent it sure sucks to be Toronto right now.
10 May 2013
What's Changed In Two Weeks?
One advantage of being disengaged for two weeks is that sport takes shape in more coherent form than in the normal day-to-day rhythms. While I've been gone, the Blue Jays have flown the coop, Anaheim has taken up the Astro challenge, Washington seems to have righted itself and the AL East has coalesced into an unlikely dogfight.
Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?
It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.
Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.
What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)
In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.
It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over.
The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.
Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.
Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?
It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.
Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.
What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)
In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.
It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over.
The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.
Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.
29 April 2013
That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario
The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95.
It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.
It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.
Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow.
Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.
To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.
None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.
On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.
The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.
23 February 2013
The Inscrutable East
Has there ever been a team assembled quite like the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays? At 73-89 last season, the Jays continued a 20-year trend in which they finished third or lower in the AL East 19 times. The team was hampered mostly by a dearth of starting arms and a ghastly array of division rivals.
Following the 2012 season, GM Alex Anthopoulos made the bold gamble to strike while the Yankees and Red Sox were cold. New York remains a threat, but the team is trimming budget as it ages. Boston is in retreat, Baltimore in regression and Tampa in St. Pete. The sun is shining for a year or two as the Ontarions to make hay.
To a roster leaning heavily on boppers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and closer Casey Janssen, Anthopoulos overlayed the core of the Miami Marlins. After busting in Florida, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were shipped north to join R.A. Dickey from the Mets and Melky Cabrera from exile, along with backups Emilio Bonifacio and Macier Izturis.
Will it work? Is that enough? They play 162 games to answer such questions. Certainly there is sufficient muscle on this squad to win the division. The three newcomers on the mound are a nice mix of veteran inning munchers and one-time phenom, joining Brandon Morrow fresh off his 2012 coming-out ceremony (a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts.) Most GMs would trade their luxury suite dinner spread for a rotation of Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow and whoever.
On paper, the lineup is stacked. Aside from first base, Jays manager John Gibbons will write the name of an above-average player at every starting position, particularly if centerfielder Colby Rasmus and catcher JP Arencibia nibble at their potential.
The bench has some working parts, with Bonifacio a nice back-up plan at almost any spot on the field. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and hard to predict, but the presence of several former starters -- Brett Cecil, JA Happ and Carlos Villenueva -- adds some stability.
Yet there's trepidation. The Reyes-Johnson-Buehrle play was a flop in the NL, and now it's on the road in the brutal AL Beast. Miami's signings were generally considered folly; why does Toronto get a pass for paying the back ended portion of them?
And there are questions. Dickey's knuckler has flummoxed, but will it knuckle in a dome? Is Johnson fully repaired? Can Bautista stay on the field? Were Melky's 2012 exploits simply a PED-fueled quirk? Is Encarnacion a slugger (42 homers last season) or has the clock struck midnight (38 homers combined in the two previous seasons)?
More to the point, can a 73-win team suddenly become a 93-win team? The Brewers exercised a similar strategy two years ago, knowing that Prince Fielder would take his salads elsewhere the following season. They bet the house -- or more accurately, the farm system -- on Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, who helped deliver 96 wins and the division before Fielder bolted and Milwaukee tripped back into the pack in 2012.
Alex Anthopoulos is betting millions of Canadian dollars that the formula, expertly applied, can work again, even against the toughest competition. And he's betting that there's no time like the present. If you love baseball more than the Rays and Yankees, you're rooting for him to be right.
Following the 2012 season, GM Alex Anthopoulos made the bold gamble to strike while the Yankees and Red Sox were cold. New York remains a threat, but the team is trimming budget as it ages. Boston is in retreat, Baltimore in regression and Tampa in St. Pete. The sun is shining for a year or two as the Ontarions to make hay.
To a roster leaning heavily on boppers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and closer Casey Janssen, Anthopoulos overlayed the core of the Miami Marlins. After busting in Florida, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were shipped north to join R.A. Dickey from the Mets and Melky Cabrera from exile, along with backups Emilio Bonifacio and Macier Izturis.
Will it work? Is that enough? They play 162 games to answer such questions. Certainly there is sufficient muscle on this squad to win the division. The three newcomers on the mound are a nice mix of veteran inning munchers and one-time phenom, joining Brandon Morrow fresh off his 2012 coming-out ceremony (a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts.) Most GMs would trade their luxury suite dinner spread for a rotation of Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow and whoever.
On paper, the lineup is stacked. Aside from first base, Jays manager John Gibbons will write the name of an above-average player at every starting position, particularly if centerfielder Colby Rasmus and catcher JP Arencibia nibble at their potential.
The bench has some working parts, with Bonifacio a nice back-up plan at almost any spot on the field. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and hard to predict, but the presence of several former starters -- Brett Cecil, JA Happ and Carlos Villenueva -- adds some stability.
Yet there's trepidation. The Reyes-Johnson-Buehrle play was a flop in the NL, and now it's on the road in the brutal AL Beast. Miami's signings were generally considered folly; why does Toronto get a pass for paying the back ended portion of them?
And there are questions. Dickey's knuckler has flummoxed, but will it knuckle in a dome? Is Johnson fully repaired? Can Bautista stay on the field? Were Melky's 2012 exploits simply a PED-fueled quirk? Is Encarnacion a slugger (42 homers last season) or has the clock struck midnight (38 homers combined in the two previous seasons)?
More to the point, can a 73-win team suddenly become a 93-win team? The Brewers exercised a similar strategy two years ago, knowing that Prince Fielder would take his salads elsewhere the following season. They bet the house -- or more accurately, the farm system -- on Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, who helped deliver 96 wins and the division before Fielder bolted and Milwaukee tripped back into the pack in 2012.
Alex Anthopoulos is betting millions of Canadian dollars that the formula, expertly applied, can work again, even against the toughest competition. And he's betting that there's no time like the present. If you love baseball more than the Rays and Yankees, you're rooting for him to be right.
16 November 2012
Flounder or Fly: The Marlins and Blue Jays
Sometimes you feel like a nut; sometimes you don't. Almond Joy has nuts; Mounds don't.
Marlins owner Jeff Loria may not have nuts, but he's got balls, catapulting the Federal Reserve at high-profile free agents in order to get a stadium built on the public dime and then jettisoning his shiny new toys months later.
He isn't nuts though. Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, playing beside Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Giancarlo Stanton, delivered 93 losses last season. Plan B could hardly be worse.
If this is, in fact, Plan B. Miami backloaded the big money contracts with a dump truck, perhaps so future trade partners would endure the bulk of the burden. Buehrle signed for $6 million in '12 (a big pay cut) but $48 million over the next three years. Reyes gets $10 million each of his first two seasons (also a pay cut) and $22 million each of the last four. Bell also traded a small downgrade to $6 million in year one for $9 million in years two-through-four, a contract already $6 million too fat.
But that's a problem for another team. Bell is now the D-backs' albatross, with help from an $8 million Marlin subsidy. Meanwhile, Reyes and Buehrle, along with every Marlin asset not named Stanton, will henceforth toil in Ontario while Miami pursues its post-World Series formula of stocking up prospects and cashing in on the cheap.
Except that it doesn't appear Loria got much in the futures market from the Blue Jays, almost certainly because of the artificially high price of his asset bundle. Enjoy your gaudy new nuthouse, Miamiheads! No lines at the ticket windows!
The Blue Jays are a lot poorer right now, but they aren't nuts. GM Alex Anthopoulos, who managed last year to trade Vernon Wells's toxic contract and get a better player in return, is striking when the iron is hot. Yankee teeth are getting long, Boston is back-pedaling and Baltimore's fairy godmother is busy waving her wand at Notre Dame. The AL East is as ripe for the taking as it's ever been and Double-A is pouncing, cost-be-damned. He's getting help from the Loonie too: having once cowered in the greenback's shadow, the Canadian dollar now looks eye-to-eye at its devalued American cousin.
Even after shopping for stars at the Marlins Everything Must Go sale and inking the discount purchase of presumably unjuiced Melky Cabrera, the Jays have holes. Adding Johnson and Buehrle gives them just three good starters. An outfield of Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera could be sick, or if the latter two revert to previous form, could make Canadians sick. There are plenty of other issues, but plenty of time to purchase solutions.
We'll find out in 2013 whether the fishy Marlin strategy or the soaring Blue Jay formula pays dividends.
Marlins owner Jeff Loria may not have nuts, but he's got balls, catapulting the Federal Reserve at high-profile free agents in order to get a stadium built on the public dime and then jettisoning his shiny new toys months later.
He isn't nuts though. Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, playing beside Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Giancarlo Stanton, delivered 93 losses last season. Plan B could hardly be worse.
If this is, in fact, Plan B. Miami backloaded the big money contracts with a dump truck, perhaps so future trade partners would endure the bulk of the burden. Buehrle signed for $6 million in '12 (a big pay cut) but $48 million over the next three years. Reyes gets $10 million each of his first two seasons (also a pay cut) and $22 million each of the last four. Bell also traded a small downgrade to $6 million in year one for $9 million in years two-through-four, a contract already $6 million too fat.
But that's a problem for another team. Bell is now the D-backs' albatross, with help from an $8 million Marlin subsidy. Meanwhile, Reyes and Buehrle, along with every Marlin asset not named Stanton, will henceforth toil in Ontario while Miami pursues its post-World Series formula of stocking up prospects and cashing in on the cheap.
Except that it doesn't appear Loria got much in the futures market from the Blue Jays, almost certainly because of the artificially high price of his asset bundle. Enjoy your gaudy new nuthouse, Miamiheads! No lines at the ticket windows!
The Blue Jays are a lot poorer right now, but they aren't nuts. GM Alex Anthopoulos, who managed last year to trade Vernon Wells's toxic contract and get a better player in return, is striking when the iron is hot. Yankee teeth are getting long, Boston is back-pedaling and Baltimore's fairy godmother is busy waving her wand at Notre Dame. The AL East is as ripe for the taking as it's ever been and Double-A is pouncing, cost-be-damned. He's getting help from the Loonie too: having once cowered in the greenback's shadow, the Canadian dollar now looks eye-to-eye at its devalued American cousin.
Even after shopping for stars at the Marlins Everything Must Go sale and inking the discount purchase of presumably unjuiced Melky Cabrera, the Jays have holes. Adding Johnson and Buehrle gives them just three good starters. An outfield of Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera could be sick, or if the latter two revert to previous form, could make Canadians sick. There are plenty of other issues, but plenty of time to purchase solutions.
We'll find out in 2013 whether the fishy Marlin strategy or the soaring Blue Jay formula pays dividends.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)