You Can't Believe This...

Matt Kemp has worked 4 walks this season and fanned 61 times. That's how a guy who pounds 15 home runs in 60 games still produces an OPS under .700.

The Cubs have won by far the most games in the Majors this year, but if you were to name an NL All-Star team right now they wouldn't have a single starter. In fact, the only player you could make a case for would be Dexter Fowler in center field.

The 40-man roster of the Atlanta Braves has hit 25 home runs this season. A washed up outfielder named Mark Trumbo has hit 20.

The world is upside down: Seattle is second in the Majors with 92 homers. The Cardinals are second in NL with 82.

The boom and bust Orioles have hit 3 triples. Twenty-four individual players have 3 or more, including speedsters Jay Bruce and Jonathan Lucroy with 5 each.

Red Sox base runners have been thrown out five times while stealing 43 bases. Astros right fielder George Springer has been thrown out six times while stealing four bases.

Clayton Kershaw has allowed six bases on balls while whiffing 122 batters. Mike Pelfrey, Yordano Ventura and Clay Bucholz have combined for three fewer strikeouts while walking 91.

Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndegaard and Johnny Cueto have allowed 16 HR combined, the same number as Max Scherzer.

Who's this year's best hitting rookie? You've been hearing about Trevor Story's home run binge, Aledmys Diaz's league-leading batting average and Nomar Mazzara's shiny future. But the rookie most tearing the cover off the ball is 33-year-old Korean Dae Ho Lee. The giant Mariners' first baseman is hitting .301/.339/.592 with 10 homers in 41 games.

You may have heard that Cincinnati Reds' relievers should be arrested for arson. They have closed out eight saves in 20 chances as a team.

Jeanmar Gomez & Mark Melnacon each have each also had 20 save chances. Each has converted 19 of them. Indeed, 19 individual pitchers have more saves than entire Reds bullpen.

On top of that, the Reds have the Majors' worst starter -- Alfredo Simon. His record: 2-6, 9.11. In 52 innings he's allowed 76 hits, 27 BB, and 14 HR. The league is hitting .338 against him. He's 2.2 losses worse than a Minor Leaguer the Reds could pick up at a quarter of the price.

Are the Padres the 2016 Blue Jays?

In 2013, the Toronto Blue Jays pushed their chips to the middle of the table, acquiring Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle and others for a run at the sagging AL East. At 74-88, the gamble went bust, and it only improved a little the next year when the Jays finished 83-79.

The team stayed together, though, and with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion anchoring the lineup, and of course the addition of MVP Josh Donaldson, Toronto catapulted to the top of the AL standings in 2015. The moves made by GM Alex Anthopoulos in the 2013 took two years to pay dividends.

Cross the continent and a similar scenario might appear to be playing out in San Diego. The Padres' new GM, A.J. Preller, collected a bulk set of spare parts -- Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel -- for renewed relevance in the NL West. The Friars were becoming MLB's version of the Premier League's Everton -- a perennial also-ran rarely good or bad enough to be noticed.

They got noticed -- for stinking up the joint, just as the Blue Jays had, skidding to the same 74-88 result. Kemp and Myers were mostly a disaster, Kimbrel suffered his worst season (he was merely brilliant) and Upton performed as advertised.

Now in 2016, are the Priests poised to become this year's Blue Jay? No, no they are not. Here's why.

Kemp and Myers did not stumble last season; they are both broken. Once the favorite toys in the chest -- Myers is a former Rookie of the Year and Kemp had his 2011 MVP stolen by Ryan Braun's doping -- neither is that anymore. Injuries have reduced Kemp to a replacement player -- 1.7 WAR the last two seasons -- and the league has caught on to Myers and his free-swinging ways. Each is a disaster in the field, Kemp yet more cringe-inducing than Myers.

Worse, Kimbrel is gone, traded for prospects, as are Joaquin Benoit and Ian Kennedy, with little on the farm to replace them. Upton, the team's lone salvation, has moved on too, and who can blame him? San Diego did ink reliever Ryan Madson to an overstuffed three-year deal, but is otherwise without much in the way of assets.

Worse, unlike the AL East, the NL West is ascendant. The Dodgers still have a pile of talent and money. The Giants are salivating at the even year with Johnny Cueto aboard. Arizona added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to a squad already showing signs of emergence. The Padres are toast in that crowd.

Where the Blue Jays took a step forward their second year after the big moves, the Padres are more likely to step back. This is a team that needs to admit it is in complete rebuild and get about jettisoning all the veteran talent it can. The alternative is to remain like Everton, neither champion nor relegation fodder, just there, filling up the standings.

Going For Broken: The San Diego Padres

Our dads love us unconditionally, no matter how messed up we are. Baseball's dads, the Padres, appear to be applying paternal love with a vengeance this Hot Stove season. The question is, will that make the team any better?

General Manager A.J. Preller took the reins of the franchise this winter and apparently has a mandate to compete in a division that includes the Brinks truck in Los Angeles and the defending champs in the Bay.

Last year, and seemingly every year prior, the Friars trailed all of baseball in plate crossings en route to another losing campaign. Preller has attempted to remedy that with a Tasmanian Devil imitation. He's made more moves than Allied Van Lines*, swapping out fringe players and farmhands for outfielders Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton, and catcher Derek Norris, then signing hurlers Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow.

*This is an awesome reference to the seminal '80s parody band, Blotto, and their signature song, I Want To Be A Lifeguard. And by "reference" I mean "theft" of the line "Summer blonds revealing tan lines, I'll make more moves than Allied Van Lines." After you click on this link, listen to this and this and be schooled.

What do all these players have in common? They all live in the Land of Lost Toys. Take Johnson, a once-upon-a-time Marlins star, who's twirled fewer than 82 innings in two of his last three seasons, posting ERAs ranging from 1.64 to 6.20. Or Norris, who busted out to a .292/.402/.477 first half of 2014 and then cratered to .245/.314/.324 second half as part of the team-wide collapse in Oakland.

Or Myers, who lit the AL on fire his first season en route to the Rookie of the Year award and then stunk up the joint during his sophomore campaign last year, bleeding 180 points of OPS before fracturing his wrist, along with much of his promise.

Of the above-named group, only Morrow, a fourth-starter type, has failed to post a sine-curve career, mostly because he's never really peaked, unless you consider his 10-save performance in '08 a crowning achievement.

Well, there is Upton, a certifiable star who's just 26. He's also a one-year rental who will be flipped to a contender if the experiment lurches out of the gate.

Padre fans could be forgiven for feeling like the glass is half full. First, the glass has been merely moist the last few years. Second, Preller has bought all of these shiny trinkets on sale. After all, the best player he's relinquished in these deals, by a wide margin, has been Yasmani Grandal, a good-looking young backstop with fledgling on-base skills and pop, but not exactly Buster Posey's profile.

While the Giants get stripped by the rest of MLB and the Dodgers throw money into the wind, Preller might just be on to something. Or he might be reprising the crash-and-burn Miami Marlins of 2012. If you're a San Diegan, have faith. After all, father knows best.

Why Matt Kemp Belongs On My All-Star Ballot

This time, my All-Star ballot counts.

My All-Star choices reflect a combination of first-half performance and lifetime achievement. To avoid selecting a first-half fluke whose performance collapses after June, I also value the sustained excellence of players over their career. On the other hand, some early performances just demand inclusion.

American League

1B  Paul Konerko, White Sox -- .337/.415/.561.  It's not close.
2B  Robinson Cano, Yankees -- .305/.368/.573. Beginning to make a Hall of Fame case.
SS  Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians -- .292/.373/.487. He has assumed the mantle of AL's best shortstop.
3B  Miguel Cabrera, Tigers -- .309/.367/.537. With a logjam at this position, Cabrera's lifetime achievements provide greater confidence than the first-half performances of KC's Mike Moustakas and Toronto's Brett Lawrie. Adrian Beltre has similar numbers, but is aided by The Ballpark in Arlington.
C  Joe Mauer, Twins -- .324/.415/.439. The power outage is disconcerting, but he still gets on base. Chicago's AJ Pierczynski  and Boston's Saltalamacchia are also reasonable options.
OF Josh Hamilton, Rangers -- .316/.384/.614. He also flashes leather and leaps tall buildings.
OF Mike Trout, Angels -- .342/.398/.535, 22 of 25 steals. Should be the first of many for this spectacular rookie CF.
OF Jose Bautista, Blue Jays -- .238/.356/.550. You hate the batting average, but Joey Bats does everything else and could win a third straight home run crown.
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox -- .307/.396/.621. Big Papi not done; getting it done.

National League

1B  Joey Votto, Reds -- .354/.476/.639.  He's on pace for 70 doubles and an MVP.
2B  Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks, -- .302/.363/.520. Slim pickings at the keystone vaults Hill over Astro phenom Jose Altuve.
SS  Jed Lowrie, Astros-- .261/.349/.490. Who knew?
3B  David Wright, Mets-- .359/.452/.570. The Mets are preparing to rent a Brinks truck and back it  into Wright's driveway.
C Carlos Ruiz, Phillies --  .361/.427/.578. Cards' Molina and Giants Posey are legitimate choices here too.
OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers -- .355/.444/.719. The best player in the NL is on the DL, but his selection recognizes him and allows another player to enjoy the honor.

OF Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates -- .344/.399/.594. "Spectacular" is his middle name. (Along with "Stefan".)

OF Ryan Braun, Brewers -- .310/.390/.590. Maybe he didn't need steroids after all.
(OF Replacement for Kemp) Carlos Beltran, Cardinals -- .312/.402/.585. Albert who?

Quirk of the season: The18 selections represent 18 different teams. That's just the way it worked out.

For starting pitchers, how about Justin Verlander and R.A. Dickey. Awesome.
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Hey, I'm Just Sayin'

The following falls into the category of "I'm not saying, I'm just saying." It is an argument wholly without merit. In fact, it isn't even an argument.

I'm just saying.

Last season, Ryan Braun hit .332/.397/.597 in a good-hitting home park surrounded by a monster lineup while trying not to embarrass himself in left field.

Matt Kemp hit a nearly-identical .324/.399/.586 in a ravine (no, literally, in a Ravine) surrounded by a lineup of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (we'll say the pitcher was Snow White) while contributing speed and a strong arm to the middle pasture.

The Baseball Writers opted for Braun as MVP because he had better teammates, an age-old and thoroughly-discredited logical process.

Come the off-season, Braun was allegedly caught juicing and won acquittal on a technicality. Kemp impressed by steadfastly refusing to denigrate Braun or the MVP vote and stifling efforts to transfer the MVP to him.

So far in the vindication round, here's the tale of the tape: Braun is scuffling to .245/.316/.388 with one home run. Kemp is at .481/.521/1.000 with eight home runs in 14 games. With less than 1/10th of games played, Kemp leads the league in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases, slugging and OPS.

Even if this did have any bearing on last year, it's not just premature, it's prematurely premature. It's so premature the baby was delivered before it was conceived. 

I'm just saying.

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And Yet...

Since last I wrote about the All-Star game, the fans and managers have done everything they could to alter the story. After I complimented their collective sagacity, the fans voted the wrong two players into the game and the managers added their personal favorites to replace injured worthies.

Fans chose 29-year-old Shane Victorino as the last addition to the NL squad over Matt Kemp, among others. Victorino is a dashing young player sporting a park-inflated .851 OPS and 15 steals in 20 attempts. He is unlikely to keep that up, even with Citizens Bank Park on his side.

Matt Kemp is younger, at 25, more dashing, with 19 steals in 23 attempts, and easily out-hitting the Flyin' Hawaiian despite playing in one of the most offense-allergic parks in baseball. His .324 average and .892 OPS are much more in line with expectations. Fangraphs also rates Kemp as twice the fielder Victorino is. But he is seriously lacking a cool nickname.

Then Charlie Manuel added insult to injury by skipping over Kemp to pick his third outfielder, 30-year-old journeyman Jayson Werth, as an injury replacement. Werth's park-inflated .895 OPS and 12 steals in 14 attempts is impressive, and he might very well be the best-looking player in the NL, but he is no Matt Kemp and he is playing well over his head. In short, Charlie Manuel picked his guy over a player who is having a better year at the plate and in the field in a tougher ballpark who is younger and already more accomplished. Sigh.

In the AL, fans chose Brandon Inge at third over Ian Kinsler at second. This is more defensible because Inge is a nice glove man who's made the unusual move from catcher and is swatting big flies so far this campaign. My problem with Inge is that the third baseman missing from the game is not so much him, but this Rodriguez fellow who is merely the second-best ballplayer on the planet. I understand that some look askance at his struggles and missed games, but despite a hip that will still require off-season surgery, ARod has put up a .943 OPS (not counting today's two dingers) and has already blasted 17 homers in 195 at bats. By year's end he will be a top-eight MVP candidate and we'll be struggling to get that pesky Inge off our shoes.

Joe Maddon's contribution to the mayhem was to add the Rangers' exciting outfield phenomenon Nelson Cruz as an injury replacement for Torii Hunter. Cruz is a defensive stud with an Uzi connected to his shoulder and he has blasted 21 homers out of the sandlot in Arlington. He is a sentimental choice, playing his first full season at age 29, which means his career's expiration date can't be far off. Compare that to Kinsler, a fourth-year Ranger on a Hall of Fame track who has but one less homer in the same park, plays a tougher position, and is far less replaceable. If Maddon needed an outfielder, I would have suggested Jermaine Dye. His OPS is 70 points higher than Cruz's and, while not the fielder, he's crushed 20 long balls in a real baseball stadium.

I don't want to belabor the point, because other than snubbing Kemp, and a few odd pitching selections, the rosters really do form a reasonable representation of the best players in the game having the best years. Maddon is one of the three best managers in the game in my opinion and the fans really did try to pick the most deserving players.

So enjoy the game, and even more, enjoy the second half of the season. Man, it's going to be great.
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