That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario

The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95. 

It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.

It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.

Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow. 

Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.

To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.

None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.

On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.

The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.

The Inscrutable East

Has there ever been a team assembled quite like the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays? At 73-89 last season, the Jays continued a 20-year trend in which they finished third or lower in the AL East 19 times. The team was hampered mostly by a dearth of starting arms and a ghastly array of division rivals.

Following the 2012 season, GM Alex Anthopoulos made the bold gamble to strike while the Yankees and Red Sox were cold. New York remains a threat, but the team is trimming budget as it ages. Boston is in retreat, Baltimore in regression and Tampa in St. Pete. The sun is shining for a year or two as the Ontarions to make hay.

To a roster leaning heavily on boppers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and closer Casey Janssen, Anthopoulos overlayed the core of the Miami Marlins. After busting in Florida, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were shipped north to join R.A. Dickey from the Mets and Melky Cabrera from exile, along with backups Emilio Bonifacio and Macier Izturis.

Will it work? Is that enough? They play 162 games to answer such questions. Certainly there is sufficient muscle on this squad to win the division. The three newcomers on the mound are a nice mix of veteran inning munchers and one-time phenom, joining Brandon Morrow fresh off his 2012 coming-out ceremony (a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts.) Most GMs would trade their luxury suite dinner spread for a rotation of Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow and whoever.

On paper, the lineup is stacked. Aside from first base, Jays manager John Gibbons will write the name of an above-average player at every starting position, particularly if centerfielder Colby Rasmus and catcher JP Arencibia nibble at their potential. 

The bench has some working parts, with Bonifacio a nice back-up plan at almost any spot on the field. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and hard to predict, but the presence of several former starters -- Brett Cecil, JA Happ and Carlos Villenueva -- adds some stability.

Yet there's trepidation. The Reyes-Johnson-Buehrle play was a flop in the NL, and now it's on the road in the brutal AL Beast. Miami's signings were generally considered folly; why does Toronto get a pass for paying the back ended portion of them?

And there are questions. Dickey's knuckler has flummoxed, but will it knuckle in a dome? Is Johnson fully repaired? Can Bautista stay on the field? Were Melky's 2012 exploits simply a PED-fueled quirk? Is Encarnacion a slugger (42 homers last season) or has the clock struck midnight (38 homers combined in the two previous seasons)?

More to the point, can a 73-win team suddenly become a 93-win team? The Brewers exercised a similar strategy two years ago, knowing that Prince Fielder would take his salads elsewhere the following season. They bet the house -- or more accurately, the farm system -- on Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, who helped deliver 96 wins and the division before Fielder bolted and Milwaukee tripped back into the pack in 2012.

Alex Anthopoulos is betting millions of Canadian dollars that the formula, expertly applied, can work again, even against the toughest competition. And he's betting that there's no time like the present. If you love baseball more than the Rays and Yankees, you're rooting for him to be right.

Back To the Future at Citi Field

In a reversal of movie titles, the Mets are already living in their past. With mediocrity a near certainty for 2011, the team brass has to begin thinking about whom to dangle on the trade market for future assets.

There's been an odd misconception in recent years that under-performing teams should jettison their best players at mid-season for prospects. This is only true of franchises with no immediate (the following year or two) pennant hopes and stars near contract expiration. A team like, say, the White Sox, would be foolish to flip Paul Konerko for young'ins even if they've stumbled out of contention in the first half of the season. The South Siders have every expectation of being competitive in '12 and '13; Konerko -- signed for two more years -- would be a cog in that wheel.

The Metropolitans are a different kettle of popcorn. Their headaches are of the Wally Pipp variety, and with powerhouses Philly and Atlanta in the division, there's next to no chance they can contend this year or next. What's more, their aging core expires contractually this year and offers tantalizing value to contenders. Inasmuch as his cash-strapped squad can finish fourth in the division this year with or without Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Reyes, GM Sandy Alderson has to be drawing up plans to convert them into younger talent.

Beltran's departure is a slam dunk. Fragile but deft in the last year of a seven-year deal, Beltran can help a contending club this season with his glove, base-running and gap power if his creaky knees are handled with discretion. The Wilpons will probably have to eat some of his remaining $18.5 million salary to get anything in return, but the salary relief alone has some value.

KRod probably has little trade value. He's a middle reliever with personal issues and a closer's W2 at this point. His $11.5 million salary and $3.5 million buyout for 2012 mean that Alderson will not have many options when offering him. Omar Minaya was bamboozled by KRod's gaudy save numbers (194 over four years with the Angels) when he inked the disastrous 3-year/$37 million deal. Again, if all the Mets get is cost-savings it will position them better for more judicious signings going forward.

Which brings us to Jose Reyes. The one-time lineup catalyst is playing his option year in 2011 in hopes of recapturing the 2006-2008 form that inspired images of Cooperstown. Injuries and a persistently low walk rate preclude a return to .300/.354/.487 with 64 steals, but at 28, Reyes is still capable of hitting .280/.330/.440 with 30 steals, playing a creditable shortstop and catching the occasional bolt of lightning. As Alderson demonstrated when he picked up Reyes' $11 million option, that player can lead a team to a season-ending dogpile. Just not this year in Queens.

So Alderson has a decision to make with Reyes. Should he re-sign the speedy infielder in the hopes that the 2012 or 2013 team can contend or should he offer him to a voracious trade market. The going rate for a talented sub-30 rally-starter on the shiny side of the defensive spectrum is a haul of potential. The decision depends on what he expects of Reyes in the coming seasons, how close he thinks his team is to relevance and how much Reyes is willing to accept to stay in NY. If Alderson is honest with himself, Reyes is gone.

After Beltran and KRod have departed, the Mets have four remaining stars. One of them -- Johan Santana -- will spend more time on the DL than with his wife. David Wright, Jason Bay, Reyes and the junk pile that the Mets throw onto the field these days is more than a player or two from a championship. The farm, trades, and free agent signings might provide more relief three years out, but then Reyes and his balky hamstrings are on the wrong side of 30. In short, Reyes is worth less to the Mets than he is to a contender that can put a solid core around him into the indefinite future. Assuming the offers are robust, the Mets should cash in their star shortstop.

If the trio I've named leaves town, this is a pretty sorry squad. Wright and Bay and then just pray. The starting rotation is solidly middle of the league and Angel Pagan is a reasonable facsimile of a center fielder, but the Mets will be playing for the future. Given their immediate past and present, that's probably the direction to look.

b

Notes From A Snoreless Tie

Notes after watching the Mets and Cards play 15 16 17 18 19 20 innings of snoreless baseball...

Jose Reyes is not himself. His plate coverage is compromised, his eye is off and his confidence is shot. He can't run down grounders that he used to gobble up. He's just another base runner. He's bereft of the joie de vive that made him such a fan favorite.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A taut, low-scoring, extra-inning affair in July is nerve-wracking. A listless, scoreless, April reliever-eater in which pitchers bat with the bases loaded, sluggers take the double collar and infielders pitch in crucial situations is downright insomnia-curing.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Albert Pujols has hit more home runs than anyone in baseball history in his first 10 years. Prince Albert has 371, just ahead of Eddie Matthews (370), Ralph Kiner (369), Ken Griffey Jr. (350) and Alex Rodriguez (345). Did you catch that? Pujols has only played nine years. This is number 10. So he'll own the record by 35 blasts when the season's over.

That's not all. Hitting home runs isn't Albert's primary skill. He's the best hitter for average on that list, takes a walk with the game's best and has a mantle filled with gold gloves. We need some new superlatives for this guy.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Johan Santana has pitched three games this year effectively but for one disastrous frame. Look out. The Venezuelan southpaw is an oil well ready to gush. Dude had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow six months ago and hasn't yet recovered all of his zing or snapped off a patented Santana slider. Nonetheless, he's relinquished a total of two runs in 17 of his 18 innings. Come summer, hide the women and children; he's going to be a beast.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's a sign of the apocalypse when a TV commercial showing a guy jump out his third story window onto the top of a speeding beer truck has to scroll the warning "Professional stuntman. Do not attempt." It seems to me that Darwin would very much approve of someone who requires that warning attempting the stunt. Are people who need to be dissuaded from it capable of reading in the first place?