That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario

The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95. 

It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.

It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.

Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow. 

Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.

To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.

None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.

On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.

The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.

Another Time Around the Wheel in Baltimore

Break up the Orioles! As of last night, the Baltimorons owned the best record in the American League at 25-14. In the upside-down AL East, they trump Tampa, Toronto, the Yankees and the Red Sox.

If you hear Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young singing "we have all been here before," it's because Deja Vu isn't just a song*, it's the yellow birds' modus operandi. Check out this cheeky blog from April about hot starts at Camden Yards.

*The song came up on my mp3 player earlier this week -- and then it mysteriously played again. No kidding.

In summary, the "Sorryels" have scratched out roughly as many wins as losses in the first half of the season since 2001, and fallen apart thereafter. This very team went 34-20 under Buck Showalter to end the 2010 campaign, then stumbled through most of last season until a 22-16 finish. Counting that, they've Dr. Jekylled their last 77 games with a 47-30 record. But in a decade of futility, what goes up comes down.

Still, the current squad has a pack of underachievers who might finally be delivering. Outfielder Adam Jones and backstop Matt Wieters have lived up to potential so far with OPS of .931 and .851 respectively. A starting staff of four-star prospects has performed at a middling level, a dramatic improvement over previous years. That Brian Matusz has limited opponents to 11.5 hits and one home run per nine innings, for a 3-4, 5.71 record, is a moral victory ranking with Gettysburg compared to last year's combustion of 1-9, 10.69, allowing 14.7 hits and 3.3 big flies per nine.

So go ahead, believe in the Orioles at your own risk. Mostly, I believe in the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays.

b