Mike Trout Is About To Pass Nolan Ryan

Every month I attend presentations of my industry trade group's local chapter. Speakers come from out of town and often tell us what we already know but haven't been doing, at least not optimally. I often walk away with a renewed commitment to do some old thing better.

We should likewise check in now and then on the centrifugal force that is Mike Trout. Now in his fifth Major League season at age 24, Trout is #5 on the WAR chart for all who have worn the uniform of the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels of Anaheim, California. 

Or Is He Fourth?
Read fast, because by the time you are done, he might be fourth. He's a sliver of a win behind Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, who pitched eight seasons for the then-California Angels.

Or third. He's a larger fraction of a win behind Tim Salmon, whose entire 14-year career was spent with the club, first with California, then with Anaheim, and at the end with Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Being Mike Trout in 2016
Through May 4, Trout was hitting .317, slugging seven homers, sparkling in center field and accounting for about two wins against replacement. At the rate he's going he'll conclude the season in second place all-time among Angel players, leapfrogging Jim Fregosi along the way. It'll take a sixth campaign to overtake Chuck Finley for first place, but that's getting ahead of ourselves.

We don't want to gaze off into the forest and neglect appreciating the mighty redwood standing before us. Or maybe it should be the ocean and the mighty Trout.

What's Changed In Two Weeks?

One advantage of being disengaged for two weeks is that sport takes shape in more coherent form than in the normal day-to-day rhythms. While I've been gone, the Blue Jays have flown the coop, Anaheim has taken up the Astro challenge, Washington seems to have righted itself and the AL East has coalesced into an unlikely dogfight.

Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?

It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.

Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.

What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)

In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.

It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over. 

The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.

Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.

Intriguing Teams of 2010, Part 1

Between now and Opening Day, I'll be peeling the onion on some of the more intriguing teams of this coming season. First on the docket is last year's AL West champs, the Anaheim Angels.

Both baseball prognosticators and Las Vegas are down on the Angels, who lost their ace, their super utility guy and their former superstar to free agency. The departure of John Lackey, Chone Figgins and to a much smaller degree Vladimir Guerrero, will hurt, as will the perceived ascendancy of AL West rivals in Seattle and Arlington. I've seen several projection systems with the Angels at 75-84 wins, a 13-22 game tumble from 2009. I wonder if it's really looking that bleak in Orange County.

First, owner Arte Moreno didn't take those snubs lying down. Anaheim let Figgins seek his fortune elsewhere in part because it has another super utility player, Macier Itzuris, who doesn't possess Figgins's pop, but hits a respectable .359/.434 spotting at second, third and short. The Angels also have confidence -- perhaps unwarranted -- in young cornerman Brandon Wood, whose career .192/.222/.313 balance sheet in 224 at bats belies a strong minor league portfolio. Wood projects to hit for power but not get on base much, with below average defense at the hot corner.

Every team in baseball could use a John Lackey, but the Angels' cupboard is hardly bare, especially if mid-season pickup Scott Kazmir can find a different dance partner than "arm trouble." With the addition of Joel Pineiro to spell Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver and post-injury Ervin Santana, the Halos seem to have a competitive rotation. Off-season signee Fernando Rodney gives them a second closer behind Brian Fuentes, and with Scott Shields as set-up man, the bullpen looks like an asset too. Pitching is fickle, bullpens doubly so, but you'd rather start the season with this contingent than what anyone else in the division can trot out, wouldn't you?

Manager Mike Scoscia will write the names of some castoffs and retreads in his daily starting lineup, including Bobby Abreu in rightfield and Hideki Matsui at DH. Abreu was a pleasant surprise at a bargain price last year, while Matsui, wracked by injuries, was the reverse for the Yankees. Abreu's unlikely to repeat, but Matsui will likely make up the difference. First baseman Kendry Morales's breakout 2009 season in which he mashed .306/.355/.569 with 34 dingers is probably a bit rich for expectations in 2010, but Howie Kendrick (.334/.444) above average at the keystone, Erick Aybar (.353/.423) inhabiting the median at short, Wood a question mark at third and slugger Mike Napoli (.350/.492) on the honor roll behind the plate combine for an above average infield. Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Juan Riveira are a bit long in the tooth but otherwise sufficiently skilled in the outfield.

Many insiders dismiss the Angels as a 92-win team last year that outplayed their run scoring profile. Statheads have documented that the difference between runs scored and runs given up is a good predictor of a team's record. Teams whose records run way ahead of their profile tend to tail off, and vice versa. So, many experts are starting their analysis of the Angels on the premise that their true level of ability last year was 92 wins, and then subtracting from that because of the loss of Lackey, Figgins and Guerrero and the concomitant gains of Seattle and Texas.

Here are some reasons why the Angels, at least going into the season, look just as good to me as they did last year:

1. The possibility of a full year of Kazmir, plus Pineiro, plus Santana is healthy, plus Rodney.

2. Without a superstar, Anaheim appears weak to untrained eyes. But lacking a soft spot in the starting lineup is more valuable than you think. Not only does it provide no rest for the weary pitcher, it limits the pain if a key player gets hurt. (See Mets, NY; 2009.)

3. Mike Scoscia's teams have a habit of flummoxing the run scoring profile. Fugetaboudit. 

4. Guerrero was addition by subtraction, as I documented last October.

5. Moreno has a big bank account, inflated by the out-migration of high-priced talent. He'll find some shiny jewel on the mid-season free-agent bazaar that Seattle can't afford.

Predicting baseball team records before the season is a fool's errand. But a smart betting person is taking the over on the Angels. They still look to me like the team to beat in the AL West.