Our dads love us unconditionally, no matter how messed up we are. Baseball's dads, the Padres, appear to be applying paternal love with a vengeance this Hot Stove season. The question is, will that make the team any better?
General Manager A.J. Preller took the reins of the franchise this winter and apparently has a mandate to compete in a division that includes the Brinks truck in Los Angeles and the defending champs in the Bay.
Last year, and seemingly every year prior, the Friars trailed all of baseball in plate crossings en route to another losing campaign. Preller has attempted to remedy that with a Tasmanian Devil imitation. He's made more moves than Allied Van Lines*, swapping out fringe players and farmhands for outfielders Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton, and catcher Derek Norris, then signing hurlers Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow.
*This is an awesome reference to the seminal '80s parody band, Blotto, and their signature song, I Want To Be A Lifeguard. And by "reference" I mean "theft" of the line "Summer blonds revealing tan lines, I'll make more moves than Allied Van Lines." After you click on this link, listen to this and this and be schooled.
What do all these players have in common? They all live in the Land of Lost Toys. Take Johnson, a once-upon-a-time Marlins star, who's twirled fewer than 82 innings in two of his last three seasons, posting ERAs ranging from 1.64 to 6.20. Or Norris, who busted out to a .292/.402/.477 first half of 2014 and then cratered to .245/.314/.324 second half as part of the team-wide collapse in Oakland.
Or Myers, who lit the AL on fire his first season en route to the Rookie of the Year award and then stunk up the joint during his sophomore campaign last year, bleeding 180 points of OPS before fracturing his wrist, along with much of his promise.
Of the above-named group, only Morrow, a fourth-starter type, has failed to post a sine-curve career, mostly because he's never really peaked, unless you consider his 10-save performance in '08 a crowning achievement.
Well, there is Upton, a certifiable star who's just 26. He's also a one-year rental who will be flipped to a contender if the experiment lurches out of the gate.
Padre fans could be forgiven for feeling like the glass is half full. First, the glass has been merely moist the last few years. Second, Preller has bought all of these shiny trinkets on sale. After all, the best player he's relinquished in these deals, by a wide margin, has been Yasmani Grandal, a good-looking young backstop with fledgling on-base skills and pop, but not exactly Buster Posey's profile.
While the Giants get stripped by the rest of MLB and the Dodgers throw money into the wind, Preller might just be on to something. Or he might be reprising the crash-and-burn Miami Marlins of 2012. If you're a San Diegan, have faith. After all, father knows best.
Showing posts with label Josh Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Johnson. Show all posts
19 December 2014
29 April 2013
That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario
The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95.
It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.
It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.
Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow.
Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.
To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.
None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.
On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.
The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.
23 February 2013
The Inscrutable East
Has there ever been a team assembled quite like the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays? At 73-89 last season, the Jays continued a 20-year trend in which they finished third or lower in the AL East 19 times. The team was hampered mostly by a dearth of starting arms and a ghastly array of division rivals.
Following the 2012 season, GM Alex Anthopoulos made the bold gamble to strike while the Yankees and Red Sox were cold. New York remains a threat, but the team is trimming budget as it ages. Boston is in retreat, Baltimore in regression and Tampa in St. Pete. The sun is shining for a year or two as the Ontarions to make hay.
To a roster leaning heavily on boppers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and closer Casey Janssen, Anthopoulos overlayed the core of the Miami Marlins. After busting in Florida, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were shipped north to join R.A. Dickey from the Mets and Melky Cabrera from exile, along with backups Emilio Bonifacio and Macier Izturis.
Will it work? Is that enough? They play 162 games to answer such questions. Certainly there is sufficient muscle on this squad to win the division. The three newcomers on the mound are a nice mix of veteran inning munchers and one-time phenom, joining Brandon Morrow fresh off his 2012 coming-out ceremony (a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts.) Most GMs would trade their luxury suite dinner spread for a rotation of Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow and whoever.
On paper, the lineup is stacked. Aside from first base, Jays manager John Gibbons will write the name of an above-average player at every starting position, particularly if centerfielder Colby Rasmus and catcher JP Arencibia nibble at their potential.
The bench has some working parts, with Bonifacio a nice back-up plan at almost any spot on the field. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and hard to predict, but the presence of several former starters -- Brett Cecil, JA Happ and Carlos Villenueva -- adds some stability.
Yet there's trepidation. The Reyes-Johnson-Buehrle play was a flop in the NL, and now it's on the road in the brutal AL Beast. Miami's signings were generally considered folly; why does Toronto get a pass for paying the back ended portion of them?
And there are questions. Dickey's knuckler has flummoxed, but will it knuckle in a dome? Is Johnson fully repaired? Can Bautista stay on the field? Were Melky's 2012 exploits simply a PED-fueled quirk? Is Encarnacion a slugger (42 homers last season) or has the clock struck midnight (38 homers combined in the two previous seasons)?
More to the point, can a 73-win team suddenly become a 93-win team? The Brewers exercised a similar strategy two years ago, knowing that Prince Fielder would take his salads elsewhere the following season. They bet the house -- or more accurately, the farm system -- on Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, who helped deliver 96 wins and the division before Fielder bolted and Milwaukee tripped back into the pack in 2012.
Alex Anthopoulos is betting millions of Canadian dollars that the formula, expertly applied, can work again, even against the toughest competition. And he's betting that there's no time like the present. If you love baseball more than the Rays and Yankees, you're rooting for him to be right.
Following the 2012 season, GM Alex Anthopoulos made the bold gamble to strike while the Yankees and Red Sox were cold. New York remains a threat, but the team is trimming budget as it ages. Boston is in retreat, Baltimore in regression and Tampa in St. Pete. The sun is shining for a year or two as the Ontarions to make hay.
To a roster leaning heavily on boppers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and closer Casey Janssen, Anthopoulos overlayed the core of the Miami Marlins. After busting in Florida, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were shipped north to join R.A. Dickey from the Mets and Melky Cabrera from exile, along with backups Emilio Bonifacio and Macier Izturis.
Will it work? Is that enough? They play 162 games to answer such questions. Certainly there is sufficient muscle on this squad to win the division. The three newcomers on the mound are a nice mix of veteran inning munchers and one-time phenom, joining Brandon Morrow fresh off his 2012 coming-out ceremony (a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts.) Most GMs would trade their luxury suite dinner spread for a rotation of Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow and whoever.
On paper, the lineup is stacked. Aside from first base, Jays manager John Gibbons will write the name of an above-average player at every starting position, particularly if centerfielder Colby Rasmus and catcher JP Arencibia nibble at their potential.
The bench has some working parts, with Bonifacio a nice back-up plan at almost any spot on the field. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and hard to predict, but the presence of several former starters -- Brett Cecil, JA Happ and Carlos Villenueva -- adds some stability.
Yet there's trepidation. The Reyes-Johnson-Buehrle play was a flop in the NL, and now it's on the road in the brutal AL Beast. Miami's signings were generally considered folly; why does Toronto get a pass for paying the back ended portion of them?
And there are questions. Dickey's knuckler has flummoxed, but will it knuckle in a dome? Is Johnson fully repaired? Can Bautista stay on the field? Were Melky's 2012 exploits simply a PED-fueled quirk? Is Encarnacion a slugger (42 homers last season) or has the clock struck midnight (38 homers combined in the two previous seasons)?
More to the point, can a 73-win team suddenly become a 93-win team? The Brewers exercised a similar strategy two years ago, knowing that Prince Fielder would take his salads elsewhere the following season. They bet the house -- or more accurately, the farm system -- on Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, who helped deliver 96 wins and the division before Fielder bolted and Milwaukee tripped back into the pack in 2012.
Alex Anthopoulos is betting millions of Canadian dollars that the formula, expertly applied, can work again, even against the toughest competition. And he's betting that there's no time like the present. If you love baseball more than the Rays and Yankees, you're rooting for him to be right.
13 September 2009
Excellence in the Shadows
As the season winds down, the contenders start positioning their pitching staffs, the MVP leaders solidify their candidacies and PNC park makes its annual Octoberfest plans, it's time to look at some overlooked performances of the 2009 season.
Rookie flamethrower Neftali Feliz isn't exactly a state secret, especially in the Metroplex. He was a highly acclaimed minor leaguer and has provided an encore performance in the bigs. Cranking it up to 100 mph, Feliz has faced 82 batters in 24 innings and dismissed 29 of them on strikes. Just 11 batters have reached base, only eight by hits. Pity the one fool who reached base by getting in the way of one of Feliz's pitches.
Feliz has relinquished just two runs. That's an 0.76 ERA. He's got a 29/2 K/BB ratio. The AL is batting .101 against him. Oh yes, the guy is 21.
None of this surprises the cognoscenti, who clamored for Feliz's call-up. Even as a reliever, his workload has been subject to a version of "the Joba Rules" by the Rangers' brass. For every inning Feliz pitches, he gets a day off, so don't expect to see a lot more of him this year. If you do, don't blink.
Next up, not exactly a rookie. Oriole second-baseman Brian Roberts may be the most under-rated player in baseball. The 32-year-old veteran is stringing together another exemplary performance, posting a batting line of .286/.354/.463 that would play in the outfield. Add 29 steals and a reputation for excellence afield, it's hard to see why the Orioles wanted to unload him and also why they couldn't.
This is not a 2009 phenomenon. This is Roberts' fifth year in six with more than 40 doubles and third in a row with 100 runs scored. He's swiped 36, 50, 40 and 29 so far with an 84% sucess rate. His value to the O's, realtive to his position, between three and four wins, is about the same as Mark Teixeira's value to the Yankees relative to first basemen. No kidding.
So how does Roberts fly under the radar? Players who hit doubles but not home runs, score runs but don't knock them in, lay down leather without flashing it and play on a lousy team, are prime candidates for overlookage.
The last guy is Josh Johnson, a right-handed Redwood for the Marlins who's been on a whirly-gig ride up and down the Florida system, back and forth between starts and relief, and on and off the DL for four years. Throughout it all, the 6'7" righty has been a slam dunk. His three semi-full seasons of MLB experience book-ending Tommy John surgery look like this: 12-7, 3.10 and a 2-1 K/BB ratio; 7-1, 3.61 and a 3-1 ratio; and this year 14-4, 3.06 and a 3-1 ratio, all in front of a defense featuring Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. It don't get much ugglar than that.
As a 25-year-old in 2009, Johnson has already tallied 31 more innings than his previous high, so the Fish will want to watch him like a Fishawk. Should he avoid injuries, Johnson has an oportunity to become next year's "overnight sensation," especially if Florida can field a contender and convince more than an occasional South Beacher to stumble into their stadium.
There are some other stars toiling in relative obscurity in the majors. They everyday players populating this demographic are often jacks of all hitting categories, masters of none. They often play in cavernous parks for non-contending teams or surrounded by fey lineups. Their mound counterparts throw middling 90-heat, in front of bumbling defenses in ballparks built into the trade winds and burdened by bullpens filled with arsonists.
But they can be found...if we look beyond the usual numbers.
Rookie flamethrower Neftali Feliz isn't exactly a state secret, especially in the Metroplex. He was a highly acclaimed minor leaguer and has provided an encore performance in the bigs. Cranking it up to 100 mph, Feliz has faced 82 batters in 24 innings and dismissed 29 of them on strikes. Just 11 batters have reached base, only eight by hits. Pity the one fool who reached base by getting in the way of one of Feliz's pitches.
Feliz has relinquished just two runs. That's an 0.76 ERA. He's got a 29/2 K/BB ratio. The AL is batting .101 against him. Oh yes, the guy is 21.
None of this surprises the cognoscenti, who clamored for Feliz's call-up. Even as a reliever, his workload has been subject to a version of "the Joba Rules" by the Rangers' brass. For every inning Feliz pitches, he gets a day off, so don't expect to see a lot more of him this year. If you do, don't blink.
Next up, not exactly a rookie. Oriole second-baseman Brian Roberts may be the most under-rated player in baseball. The 32-year-old veteran is stringing together another exemplary performance, posting a batting line of .286/.354/.463 that would play in the outfield. Add 29 steals and a reputation for excellence afield, it's hard to see why the Orioles wanted to unload him and also why they couldn't.
This is not a 2009 phenomenon. This is Roberts' fifth year in six with more than 40 doubles and third in a row with 100 runs scored. He's swiped 36, 50, 40 and 29 so far with an 84% sucess rate. His value to the O's, realtive to his position, between three and four wins, is about the same as Mark Teixeira's value to the Yankees relative to first basemen. No kidding.
So how does Roberts fly under the radar? Players who hit doubles but not home runs, score runs but don't knock them in, lay down leather without flashing it and play on a lousy team, are prime candidates for overlookage.
The last guy is Josh Johnson, a right-handed Redwood for the Marlins who's been on a whirly-gig ride up and down the Florida system, back and forth between starts and relief, and on and off the DL for four years. Throughout it all, the 6'7" righty has been a slam dunk. His three semi-full seasons of MLB experience book-ending Tommy John surgery look like this: 12-7, 3.10 and a 2-1 K/BB ratio; 7-1, 3.61 and a 3-1 ratio; and this year 14-4, 3.06 and a 3-1 ratio, all in front of a defense featuring Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. It don't get much ugglar than that.
As a 25-year-old in 2009, Johnson has already tallied 31 more innings than his previous high, so the Fish will want to watch him like a Fishawk. Should he avoid injuries, Johnson has an oportunity to become next year's "overnight sensation," especially if Florida can field a contender and convince more than an occasional South Beacher to stumble into their stadium.
There are some other stars toiling in relative obscurity in the majors. They everyday players populating this demographic are often jacks of all hitting categories, masters of none. They often play in cavernous parks for non-contending teams or surrounded by fey lineups. Their mound counterparts throw middling 90-heat, in front of bumbling defenses in ballparks built into the trade winds and burdened by bullpens filled with arsonists.
But they can be found...if we look beyond the usual numbers.
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