I wrote off David Ortiz's career after a hand injury sidelined him in '08 and robbed him of bat speed in '09.
I've written an open letter to him advising him to shut up.
I've justified the whispers about steroid use.
I've observed how his strict adherence to the DH role has a negative impact on his team's defense.
I've called him a fringe Hall of Famer.
And now, he's answering.
Big Papi's Retirement Tour follows a 2015 campaign in which he posted a .304 True Average. He blasted 37 homers and walked 95 times.
This year, at age 40, he's turned 2015 into a preview. He's on pace* to bat .320, slam 48 home runs and 76 doubles, for a .343 TAv.
* I feel like a doofus just writing those words. But you get the point.
For good measure, he's turned the Clutchalizer to 11. Twice last week he supplied the winning hit in the last inning. On Saturday, he tied the game in the 9th with a triple and won it in extras with a double. He had homered earlier in the game.
Ortiz has joined Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron as the only players in MLB history with 500+ homers and 600+ doubles. He'll likely pass Mickey Mantle in long balls.
And given the ball-crushing hijinx of the RSox, he has a chance to lead his charges to another World Series, or at least make some noise with the lumber in October.
It's as if Big Papi is advising me to shut up. Although in his case, it would be "shut the #@!$%! up, *&%$#@!.
It doesn't really change the equation: by the numbers, David Ortiz is a borderline case. But the narrative is pure Hall of Fame gold and it's getting more golden the more he demonstrates that he's leaving near the top of his game.
I have a new message for Big Papi: Okay, I'm convinced. You're a Hall of Famer.
Showing posts with label David Ortiz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Ortiz. Show all posts
15 May 2016
21 August 2015
A Look Back: Boy Could He Rake
David Ortiz's next home run launches him into the rarefied air above Lou Gehrig and solidly in the middle of a Hall of Fame discussion.
The subject has been examined here before:
- he's slightly lacking on the numerical end because his star didn't rise until he was nearly 30;
- his peak is Hall of Fame worthy;
- he is a larger-than-life character and helped bring three world titles to beleaguered Boston;
- he is a DH by necessity, which means he has cost his teams many runs on defense;
- for several years he collected a skein of big hits in key spots that turned around games;
- he allegedly tested positive for steroids before they were outlawed in baseball.
All of that is noteworthy while remembering another performer whose Hall of Fame credentials are being debated. Already an MVP and Hall of Famer-to-be, it's generally acknowledged that Barry Bonds began tinkering with the juice after 1998, and from 2000 to 2007 was the most spectacular and dominating hitter ever.
With Ortiz as the benchmark of greatness, here's what you might have forgotten about Bonds: in those eight years he crushed an average of 40 homers and walked 131 times, despite averaging just 123 games played. His slash stats of .322/.517/.724 dwarf Big Papi's -- and everyone else's. Ortiz compiled an OPS 56% above average; Bonds was 121% above average. In other words, Bonds was more than twice the hitter the average player was. He was competing at a whole other level than the next best baseball player in the world.
Remember the year Bonds smashed the home run record, with 73? He walked a league-leading 177 times that year, leaving just 476 opportunities to swing for the fences. The next year he walked 198 times -- with 46 home runs -- and two years later he walked a mind-boggling 232 times and still managed to smash 45 homers in just 373 at bats. That season, 2004, Bonds was 37 years old.
We think of Ortiz as "clutch," but if there was a guy to avoid in a key spot, it was Barry Bonds. Remember those 60 intentional walks for Ortiz over five years? Pitchers purposely sent Bonds to first 60 or more times in each of three seasons. For his steroid period, these were his intentional walk tallies:
2000 - 22
2001 - 35
2002 - 68
2003 - 61
2004 - 120
2005 - hurt most of the season
2006 - 38
2007 - 43
bold = led Majors
That's with Hall of Fame candidate Jeff Kent batting behind him. Bonds earned 688 lifetime intentional passes. That more than all of Hall-of-Famer Jim Rice's walks -- intentional or otherwise -- in a 16-year career.
Bonds also led the league in on base percentage in six of those last seven seasons, including his age 41 and 42 years. That's right, no team would pick up Bonds at age 43 in 2008 because his skills had deteriorated so badly that he could only muster 28 home runs in 126 games, lead the league with a .480 OBP and post an OPS 69% better than average. For good measure, Bonds swiped 30 of 32 bases in his last six campaigns.
It's difficult to describe to someone who didn't experience Bonds's career how devastating and dominating he was in those years. He would wait out pitchers' fearful nibbling until he got a pitch in the zone and then he'd explode on it and send the ball into McCovey Cove. If that pitch never came, he'd diffidently remove his body armor and stroll to first without regret. The entire defensive philosophy against the Giants revolved around Barry Bonds. His body language and personal style were arrogant, self-centered and often brutish. But boy could he rake.
For his career, Bonds won seven MVPs, finished second twice, fourth once, fifth twice and eighth once. He would have fared better but writers didn't understand on base percentage and thought he was a bastard. Imagine if they had liked and appreciated him.
If you ever had the thought that you'd like to see what "so-and-so" could do on steroids, don't bother. We saw what the Willie Mays of the 90s actually did on steroids and it was unimaginable.
28 March 2015
An Open Letter To David Ortiz
Dear Papi,
You're the most popular player on a team that's won three World Series in the last decade.
You're beloved by a fan base that covers an entire region of the country.
An entire fan base is greasing the machinery for your Hall of Fame case, a fan base so starved for success before you won it all that one of its most well-known and devout followers offered half his gonads for a title.
You're so unconditionally revered that detonating a gerund form of the F-Bomb during a solemn ceremony before a national audience including women, children and Southern Baptists earned you further adulation.
And yet, you need to take a chill pill. You seem angry, and you seem to be spraying your anger wantonly, willy-nilly, at no one and everyone simultaneously.
You're upset that some baseball fans suspect you might have used steroids to enhance your play. You're ticked that enduring success has spoiled the underdog sheen, that some outside of Red Sox Nation who may have cheered Boston's 2004 and 2007 titles have moved on to the less entitled. You're annoyed that the baseball media is becoming immune to your charms.
Papi, lighten up. The steroid talk is as irrelevant as it is inevitable, given your apparent failed test in '03, your body type and your mid-career breakout. You need to stop reading Twitter, a forum for any half-wit to spew his uncorroborated venom. Twitter is a death trap for your social-emotional IQ.
More to the point, you need to lay off the venom yourself. You doth protest too much, too vigorously, too profanely and indiscriminately. You're the guy who broke the curse; stop bringing up new ones. Sure, you have enemies; so did Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King and Babe Ruth -- and you're not half of any one of them. Focus on your admirers, who are legion, even if they're unconvinced by the argument that you've passed 80 drug tests. That was the diamond frame of Lance Armstrong's ride and he turned out to be Beelzebub in Spandex.
As for the Hall of Fame, no one likes a campaigner, especially one still under contract to actually, you know, play. Okay, so you don't really play, unless you're visiting a National League park. But you are under contract to hit home runs, which is the best Hall of Fame argument you can make.
The thing is, you're an extremely fringey HOF candidate. You couldn't win a starting job during your first five seasons and didn't become a star until age 27. Your defensive inability has cost your teams 19 wins, which has to be considered when your case is made. That's even before we consider the whole steroid question, whatever it's worth.
So rather than argue ungracefully for a bust, strengthen your case on the field. You've got some bonafides -- the 12 years of mashing, the .304 lifetime TAv, the leadership, the undeniably clutch play. Let that, and your minions, carry your Hall of Fame water. You're a New England legend with $143 million American in career earnings. That's a long way from the squalor and ignominy of Santo Domingo's streets.
So be happy, Papi. That's the best revenge anyway.
You're the most popular player on a team that's won three World Series in the last decade.
You're beloved by a fan base that covers an entire region of the country.
An entire fan base is greasing the machinery for your Hall of Fame case, a fan base so starved for success before you won it all that one of its most well-known and devout followers offered half his gonads for a title.
You're so unconditionally revered that detonating a gerund form of the F-Bomb during a solemn ceremony before a national audience including women, children and Southern Baptists earned you further adulation.
And yet, you need to take a chill pill. You seem angry, and you seem to be spraying your anger wantonly, willy-nilly, at no one and everyone simultaneously.
You're upset that some baseball fans suspect you might have used steroids to enhance your play. You're ticked that enduring success has spoiled the underdog sheen, that some outside of Red Sox Nation who may have cheered Boston's 2004 and 2007 titles have moved on to the less entitled. You're annoyed that the baseball media is becoming immune to your charms.
Papi, lighten up. The steroid talk is as irrelevant as it is inevitable, given your apparent failed test in '03, your body type and your mid-career breakout. You need to stop reading Twitter, a forum for any half-wit to spew his uncorroborated venom. Twitter is a death trap for your social-emotional IQ.
More to the point, you need to lay off the venom yourself. You doth protest too much, too vigorously, too profanely and indiscriminately. You're the guy who broke the curse; stop bringing up new ones. Sure, you have enemies; so did Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King and Babe Ruth -- and you're not half of any one of them. Focus on your admirers, who are legion, even if they're unconvinced by the argument that you've passed 80 drug tests. That was the diamond frame of Lance Armstrong's ride and he turned out to be Beelzebub in Spandex.
As for the Hall of Fame, no one likes a campaigner, especially one still under contract to actually, you know, play. Okay, so you don't really play, unless you're visiting a National League park. But you are under contract to hit home runs, which is the best Hall of Fame argument you can make.
The thing is, you're an extremely fringey HOF candidate. You couldn't win a starting job during your first five seasons and didn't become a star until age 27. Your defensive inability has cost your teams 19 wins, which has to be considered when your case is made. That's even before we consider the whole steroid question, whatever it's worth.
So rather than argue ungracefully for a bust, strengthen your case on the field. You've got some bonafides -- the 12 years of mashing, the .304 lifetime TAv, the leadership, the undeniably clutch play. Let that, and your minions, carry your Hall of Fame water. You're a New England legend with $143 million American in career earnings. That's a long way from the squalor and ignominy of Santo Domingo's streets.
So be happy, Papi. That's the best revenge anyway.
03 November 2013
Is David Ortiz a Hall of Famer?
With another set of post-season heroics in the rear view mirror, Hall of Fame buzz is beginning to swirl around David Ortiz. At 38, Big Papi delivered his best season since '07, with a .959 OPS in 137 games. Since joining the Red Sox in '03, Big Papi has authored a .292/.390/.572 resume with 373 home runs and an offensive record 48% above league average. That includes 2008-09 when a wrist injury hampered his swing and sapped his power; absent those two seasons he's raking at 55% above average. That Coopestownish.
The major Hall of Fame problem for Ortiz is that his career did not start with Boston in '03. In his first six years with the Twins, he hit just .266 with 58 homers. There was no Big and no Papi until he landed in the Bay state and began mashing behind Manny Ramirez. Ortiz has performed at a Hall of Fame level with the bat over an 11-year period, but that's not long enough and it's not the entirety of his playing career.
There's another barrier to a bronze bust for Ortiz: he's a DH. You will hear and read irrelevant analysis about how a DH doesn't belong in the Hall or about how no DH has ever been elected. Neither is the point. Cooperstown has a long history of enshrinement of one-dimensional players, in case you mistook Harmon Killebrew for a speed merchant (19 of 37 steals in 22 years) and defensive wizard (19 career wins below replacement with the glove).
The problem with rostering a player who can only DH is that it has an inherent negative effect on team construction. The various sabermetric measuring systems assess this against a player's defense, but the restrictions such a player imposes on lineup flexibility may accrue to offense instead or as well. Between his lack of range when he donned his mitt and the lack of managerial range created by carrying a non-fielder on the roster, Ortiz has cost his teams 18 wins over his career. That offsets a goodly chunk of his overall value.
There are four widely-used systems designed to predict a player's Hall of Fame case. Three of them say Ortiz has a fair amount of work to do. For example, the average Hall of Fame first baseman leads the league in 27 seasonal categories over the course of his career. Papi has led the AL in home runs once, RBIs twice, walks twice, OBP once and total bases once, well short of that standard. The JAWS Hall of Fame valuation model, which compares a player's value to the average Haller at his position (Ortiz is considered a first baseman since there are no DHs to whom we can compare him) suggests Ortiz is well short in both his peak and his overall career numbers, by distances he cannot bridge even if he performs well into his 40s.
None of this captures the special character that sparked the speculation to begin with. "Clutch" hitting is a vastly exaggerated notion, but Big Papi delivers in key situations so relentlessly there can be no denying that he loves the spotlight and thrives on pressure. Recounting all his game-changing home runs in season-altering games would amount to gilding the lily. His .455/.576/.795 line in three triumphant World Series speaks for itself. In addition, his unquestioned leadership was captured exquisitely when he gathered his bearded brethren around him in the dugout in Game 4 of the just concluded championship. It is tempting to assign cause and effect to that confab and the three consecutive victories that turned a 2-1 deficit into a parade.
How do you measure leadership and clutch hitting? What are their value? Are they enough to overcome a career gap of 24 wins against replacement. The answer, for me, is pretty clear: not even close. Big Papi is a great player and a character who will live forever in baseball history, but he hasn't done enough to earn a bust.
On to the elephant in the room: steroids. The New York Times reported that Ortiz was among 100 players who tested positively for steroids in 2003. Ortiz denied he took steroids and the Players Association claims those relatively unsophisticated tests returned false positives for supplement use. For some cynical followers of the game, that's enough to convict a player even though it amounts to nothing.
Others point to the spike in Ortiz big flies from 2004-2006 (40-47-54) at ages 28-30, followed by a dramatic decline to 35 after 2006, never to return. This argument is specious: that's normal career peaking. Indeed, in the four years preceding his home run spike he hit 10-18-20-31. In the four years following his peak, his home run totals declined to 35-23-28-32. He also played more games during the peak than in any other years.
In other words, there are several good reasons not to elect David Ortiz to the Hall of Fame -- a short peak and bad defense chief among them. There are a couple of good reasons to consider him further -- palpable leadership and clutch hitting that helped propel his team to three more championships in 10 years than they had won in the previous 86. But denying him a bust because of steroids is pure electoral malpractice, on par with electing Ted Cruz or Jesse Jackson Jr. to Congress.
The major Hall of Fame problem for Ortiz is that his career did not start with Boston in '03. In his first six years with the Twins, he hit just .266 with 58 homers. There was no Big and no Papi until he landed in the Bay state and began mashing behind Manny Ramirez. Ortiz has performed at a Hall of Fame level with the bat over an 11-year period, but that's not long enough and it's not the entirety of his playing career.
There's another barrier to a bronze bust for Ortiz: he's a DH. You will hear and read irrelevant analysis about how a DH doesn't belong in the Hall or about how no DH has ever been elected. Neither is the point. Cooperstown has a long history of enshrinement of one-dimensional players, in case you mistook Harmon Killebrew for a speed merchant (19 of 37 steals in 22 years) and defensive wizard (19 career wins below replacement with the glove).
The problem with rostering a player who can only DH is that it has an inherent negative effect on team construction. The various sabermetric measuring systems assess this against a player's defense, but the restrictions such a player imposes on lineup flexibility may accrue to offense instead or as well. Between his lack of range when he donned his mitt and the lack of managerial range created by carrying a non-fielder on the roster, Ortiz has cost his teams 18 wins over his career. That offsets a goodly chunk of his overall value.
There are four widely-used systems designed to predict a player's Hall of Fame case. Three of them say Ortiz has a fair amount of work to do. For example, the average Hall of Fame first baseman leads the league in 27 seasonal categories over the course of his career. Papi has led the AL in home runs once, RBIs twice, walks twice, OBP once and total bases once, well short of that standard. The JAWS Hall of Fame valuation model, which compares a player's value to the average Haller at his position (Ortiz is considered a first baseman since there are no DHs to whom we can compare him) suggests Ortiz is well short in both his peak and his overall career numbers, by distances he cannot bridge even if he performs well into his 40s.
None of this captures the special character that sparked the speculation to begin with. "Clutch" hitting is a vastly exaggerated notion, but Big Papi delivers in key situations so relentlessly there can be no denying that he loves the spotlight and thrives on pressure. Recounting all his game-changing home runs in season-altering games would amount to gilding the lily. His .455/.576/.795 line in three triumphant World Series speaks for itself. In addition, his unquestioned leadership was captured exquisitely when he gathered his bearded brethren around him in the dugout in Game 4 of the just concluded championship. It is tempting to assign cause and effect to that confab and the three consecutive victories that turned a 2-1 deficit into a parade.
How do you measure leadership and clutch hitting? What are their value? Are they enough to overcome a career gap of 24 wins against replacement. The answer, for me, is pretty clear: not even close. Big Papi is a great player and a character who will live forever in baseball history, but he hasn't done enough to earn a bust.
On to the elephant in the room: steroids. The New York Times reported that Ortiz was among 100 players who tested positively for steroids in 2003. Ortiz denied he took steroids and the Players Association claims those relatively unsophisticated tests returned false positives for supplement use. For some cynical followers of the game, that's enough to convict a player even though it amounts to nothing.
Others point to the spike in Ortiz big flies from 2004-2006 (40-47-54) at ages 28-30, followed by a dramatic decline to 35 after 2006, never to return. This argument is specious: that's normal career peaking. Indeed, in the four years preceding his home run spike he hit 10-18-20-31. In the four years following his peak, his home run totals declined to 35-23-28-32. He also played more games during the peak than in any other years.
In other words, there are several good reasons not to elect David Ortiz to the Hall of Fame -- a short peak and bad defense chief among them. There are a couple of good reasons to consider him further -- palpable leadership and clutch hitting that helped propel his team to three more championships in 10 years than they had won in the previous 86. But denying him a bust because of steroids is pure electoral malpractice, on par with electing Ted Cruz or Jesse Jackson Jr. to Congress.
14 July 2013
Groovy Bits of Data Entering the All-Star Break
Alfonso Soriano is poised to become the 14th Major Leaguer to reach 400 homers and 300 steals.
Three-time All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.
Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why.
The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.
Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done.
Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.
Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.
*Chris Davis is the second.
The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.
David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.
You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.
Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.
Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk.
Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.
Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.
Three-time All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.
Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why.
The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.
Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done.
Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.
Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.*Chris Davis is the second.
The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.
David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.
You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.
Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.
Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk.
Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.
Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.
02 June 2013
Amazing But True Statistics At the One-Third Mark
Baltimore's Chris
Davis has hit 20 homers and slugged .766. That's more home runs than the
entire Seattle Mariner infield, including the catcher. It's a higher
slugging percentage than any two Mariner infielders.
The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.
The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.
The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.
Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.
The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year. That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.
Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.
Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.
Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk.
Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.
D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts.
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.
Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.
Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.
The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.
The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.
The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.
Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.
The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year. That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.
Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.
Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.
Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk.
Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.
D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts.
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.
Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.
Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.
24 April 2010
Fait Accompli and Other Stories
The 2010 Major League Baseball season has an NBA aura about it this year.
In the NBA, they played a whole season, and have begun their two months of playoffs, basically to determine who will face the Lakers in the finals. It has this interminable air of inevitability.
The MLB season feels the same way. Just 1/8th of the way through the schedule, the season feels like an exercise in determining whom the Yankees will oppose in the World Series. They've got the best hitting, starting pitching, bench, relief pitching, depth, resources and organization in baseball. They've added speed and defense to a championship club this year. They have no David Ortiz-sized question marks.
What don't they have? Matt Kemp is the best-looking player in baseball. So that's one for the Dodgers. Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Anaheim have the nicest stadiums. The Phillies may clinch by Flag Day. After that, it's the English Premier League -- Manchester United vying with whoever else might be hot this year.
Sigh.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's 2010, right? MLB includes OPS in its summaries. ESPN lists on-base percentage on its broadcasts. Does everyone at Fox live in a cave and watch only reality shows?
Comparing Mark Teixeira to Kendry Morales, the player who replaced him in Anaheim, Joe Buck and Eric Karros noted that the latter was a perfect generic knock-off at a GDP-sized discount. It's a valid point and a worthwhile discussion. (To his credit, Karros added that Teixeira is a more accomplished fielder.)
Buck pointed out that Morales "hit better" because Morales hit .306, Teixeira, .292. Tex also coaxed 40 more walks and posted a .383 OBP compared to .355 for Morales. Their power numbers were nearly identical, which is to say, Tex "hit better."
L
It's a small point in this discussion and doesn't change the underlying theme, but isn't it time that people paid millions of dollars to talk about baseball get within a generation of the times? I mean, where's the beef?
b
04 April 2010
Almost Got To Opening Day Without Mentioning Sox-Yanks
Though I'd hesitate to call it Opening Day, the 2010 MLB season kicks off tonight at Fenway with the Yankees in town. Baseball is hoping to emulate NASCAR, which fires off the season with its biggest race. Given what a miserable anti-climax the World Series has become, it's fitting, if not inspiring.
While most teams ponder the question marks, the two behemoths in battle tonight ponder where first they'll plunder for further talent monopolization. The big question for New York is, at which position will they fail to place an All-Star. (Answer: outfield.) In Boston, there actually are three interesting side stories that may help determine how much of a fight they can muster.
The first two questions are variations on a theme: What of...? Daisuke Matsuzaka and David Ortiz. Daisuke has played in the States for three seasons, and presented to America three different Daisukes. Version 1, the "rookie," was a strikeout machine who logged 200+ innings of 4.40 RA ball. Capital.
2008's Daisuke v.2 was an odd duck. His spectacular 18-3, 3.11 RA line masked many problems. He walked five batters a game and burned himself out by the fifth inning, forcing the deep Bosox pen to bail him out constantly. That they did put a beautiful facade on a structurally unsound foundation, which we saw last year when his arm fell off. Daisuke v.3 was painful: just 12 starts and a 5.76 RA with 10 homers in 60 innings.
All things being equal (which they aren't; how can all things be equal?), Matsuzaka is something between the lucky drunk of 2008 and the (World Baseball Classic-induced?) basket case of 2009. The stathead projection systems, which are taking account of his DL stint to open the season, see him pitching around 150 innings this year with an ERA back around 4.20, good for about two wins a year compared to a fifth starter off the trash heap. That's good third or fourth starter quality.
Two versions of David Ortiz showed up last year, the aging slugger who couldn't hit a pumpkin before the All-Star break and the 27 home runs post-ASB. Undoubtedly, the wrist injury of '08 was part of the equation, but turning 230 pounds into baseball's golden years -- he's 35 this year -- is likely responsible for some of it too. Look for Ortiz to continue to be an asset, but a depreciating one, particularly since he can't play the field.
Which brings us to the epic saga of Mike Lowell. Any other team thanks their lucky stars for a slick-fielding hot cornerman with an .811 OPS and hopes his hip is hippie-dippie in '10. The Sox, they can't afford to hope. So they bring aboard Adrian Beltre, which leaves them with two viable third basemen, three first basemen (Youklis, Lowell and Victor Martinez), two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and no space to fill at DH. This is a good thing, especially in the AL Beast.
Varitek and Lowell will start the season talking old times on the bench, but they could be significant -- if expensive -- spare parts if injuries strike. Because Terry Francona has so many above-average permutations at his disposal, a sprain here and tear there won't cause much dislocation in the lineup. Don't assume the Red Sox want to trade Lowell just because he's not a first-stringer. Mark my word: he'll get more than half a season's at bats.
The media has done a good job covering Boston management's new-found romance with pitching and defense, but what they're really banking on is depth. With Lowell on the bench and Matsuzaka as the sixth starter (for now), the Sox are 2010's anti-Mets. Let's hope (as we Yankee-despisers are wont to do) that's enough to beat NY's other team.
b
15 August 2009
Taking Offense in the East
When you add a healthy Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon on a 30-HR pace and Robby Cano's Dr. Jekyll side to a lineup of Texeira, Rodriguez and Jeter, it doesn't matter how many Nick Swishers or Brett Gardners nose their way into the lineup, you're going to be near the lead in the Majors in run scoring. And if you can get plus performances out of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes behind mercenaries Sabathia and Burnett, well, it's no surprise that you've got the best record in the game.
The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.
Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266
In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.
The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.
Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.
The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.
Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.
Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.
Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
b
The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.
Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266
In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.
The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.
Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.
The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.
Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.
Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.
Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
b
31 July 2009
...And We All Love Andy Pettite
David Ortiz got a standing ovation last night following a report that he flunked the secret 2003 steroid test. They love them some Big Papi in Beantown, but they hate Manny Ramirez, that traitor who forced a trade to the Dodgers.
Ramirez was caught using steroids this year, but was cheered upon his return from suspension by the fans in L.A. who appreciate how he carried the team to the playoffs last year and the best record in baseball this year. However, they despise that cheating bastard Barry Bonds.
Bonds, of course, led the Giants to relevance and a World Series, and set the home run record in San Francisco, where fans defend him to this day. They won't acknowledge Alex Rodriguez if he manages to beat 762 because he's a lying, adulterous, fraud.
Fans in the Bronx don't much cotton to ARod either, but mainly because he hits into double plays in key situations and has the audacity to be a better player than Derek Jeter. Still, when ARod goes yard to win a game in July, the fans are ready to forgive him...at least for the moment. Don't expect New Yorkers to support Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy, though. Mr. Andro. Mr. I'm not here to talk about the past.
McGwire has to return to St. Louis if he wants some baseball love. The remember him warmly for making the 1998 so memorable and for embracing the Gateway.
At least everyone can agree that they detest Roger Clemens. It's that kind of consistency of logic that makes the steroid discussion so productive.
b
Ramirez was caught using steroids this year, but was cheered upon his return from suspension by the fans in L.A. who appreciate how he carried the team to the playoffs last year and the best record in baseball this year. However, they despise that cheating bastard Barry Bonds.
Bonds, of course, led the Giants to relevance and a World Series, and set the home run record in San Francisco, where fans defend him to this day. They won't acknowledge Alex Rodriguez if he manages to beat 762 because he's a lying, adulterous, fraud.
Fans in the Bronx don't much cotton to ARod either, but mainly because he hits into double plays in key situations and has the audacity to be a better player than Derek Jeter. Still, when ARod goes yard to win a game in July, the fans are ready to forgive him...at least for the moment. Don't expect New Yorkers to support Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy, though. Mr. Andro. Mr. I'm not here to talk about the past.
McGwire has to return to St. Louis if he wants some baseball love. The remember him warmly for making the 1998 so memorable and for embracing the Gateway.
At least everyone can agree that they detest Roger Clemens. It's that kind of consistency of logic that makes the steroid discussion so productive.
b
26 April 2009
Ciao, Papi!
Take a power-hitting DH who runs like molasses going uphill. Turn over the odometer and expand the BMI. Throw in a wrist injury -- the very kind that puts the brakes on bat speed. Stir in a big contract. What you have is a career that's over, but doesn't know it.
You have David Ortiz.
Ortiz is done like burned meatloaf. It's not just that he hasn't hit a home run in April or that he's batting .217. It's not that his compadre Manny is gone or that last season was his worst with Boston. It's that the careers of big fellas like him fall off the table when their time comes and you can see it when he bats.
Ortiz can't get around on fastballs. He's got to start his swing earlier, making him more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Pitchers are no longer afraid of him, particularly in Boston's densely-packed lineup, and are throwing more pitches in the zone. When a player without speed or defense loses walks, home runs and hits, all he's got is his sunny disposition. As Leo Durocher famously observed, you don't win pennants with those.
Perhaps Ortiz is still recovering from last year's ouchies and will rev it up when the weather warms. We certainly saw Carlos Delgado find another gear in the second half of last year after it appeared that he was ready for his parting gifts. But Delgado is a better athlete than Ortiz. I'm betting that Big Papi is this year's Mo Vaughn.
b
You have David Ortiz.
Ortiz is done like burned meatloaf. It's not just that he hasn't hit a home run in April or that he's batting .217. It's not that his compadre Manny is gone or that last season was his worst with Boston. It's that the careers of big fellas like him fall off the table when their time comes and you can see it when he bats.
Ortiz can't get around on fastballs. He's got to start his swing earlier, making him more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Pitchers are no longer afraid of him, particularly in Boston's densely-packed lineup, and are throwing more pitches in the zone. When a player without speed or defense loses walks, home runs and hits, all he's got is his sunny disposition. As Leo Durocher famously observed, you don't win pennants with those.
Perhaps Ortiz is still recovering from last year's ouchies and will rev it up when the weather warms. We certainly saw Carlos Delgado find another gear in the second half of last year after it appeared that he was ready for his parting gifts. But Delgado is a better athlete than Ortiz. I'm betting that Big Papi is this year's Mo Vaughn.
b
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)