Baseball is cruel.
In a 2-2 game with the Rockies, Braves closer Jason Grilli pitched to one batter in the ninth. He induced a soft grounder in the first base hole fielded easily by Chris Johnson, but the runner earned a hit when Grilli tore his Achilles covering first.
Reliever Dave Aardsma faced three batters, fanning one, walking one and hitting one to load the bases. Mike Foltynewicz entered and allowed the game-winning bloop hit. The run and the loss were charged to Grilli, whose frying (or perhaps Grilling) will involve larger fish, like massive pain killers, surgery and rehabbing for next season at 38 years of age.
Is there anything sillier -- not withstanding Donald Trump's ramblings -- than the aphorism that the teams leading their divisions at the All-Star break will survive the scrum? A week ago, Houston enjoyed a five game lead over Anaheim in the AL West; today they're percentage points apart. A week ago, the Giants and Dodgers were neck and neck in the NL West; L.A. now leads the division by 5.5 games while San Fran bobs around .500. And the entire AL East, sans Boston, was a knot last week; three games separate the Yankees from the crowd today, despite an up-and-down week for the Bombers.
Despite similar pre-season expectations, fans of the Red Sox are hopeful as we enter the mid-season break while Tigers supporters are apoplectic. You'd never know the Sox have lost four more times than they've prevailed while the Tigers stand a game above .500. Both teams entered the season with pitching concerns in a winnable division. But Detroit has scuffled more than expected while the Royals and Twins have been shockingly adept. Meanwhile, the AL East has delivered as advertised, sporting the worst first-place winning percentage in the game. And despite miserable pitching (last in ERA) and sloppy defense (below average in zone rating and errors), Boston is on the upswing, closer to first than the Tigers by three games.
There's also reason for optimism in New England. David Ortiz and Mike Napoli have fought demons at the plate that each has demonstrated an ability to vanquish in the second half. Rookie hurler Eduardo Rodriguez gives them a second starter behind Clay Bucholz. The return of Dustin Pedroia from the DL and the insertion of Alejandro de Aza in the outfield add two more data points to the positive calculations.
At Comerica, the math isn't adding up. The home nine have already enjoyed the fruits of a monster lineup that ranks first in OPS and third in runs scored, leaving little room for improvement. The woeful pitching will depend on a breakout from Justin Verlander following a triceps injury that has limited him to five awful starts. Absent that, there's not much to bank on going forward.
The first half 2015 MVPs are exactly who you predicted they would be in 2012: Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Extrapolating them for a full season, Trout will hit .309 with 52 home runs and 11.8 WAR. Harper would be at .341 with 52 home runs and 12.4 WAR. Neither one is 24 yet. Hello, Cooperstown?
Dallas Keuchel is all of 27 and Zack Greinke is a grizzled 31-year-old veteran. They're your first half Cy Young laureates. Keuchel is 11-4, 2.23 and leads the league in innings pitched (137) shutouts (two) and WAR (4.7). Greinke leads the NL is ERA (1.39), innings pitched (123) and WAR (5.4). The full season award would sit beside another: Greinke earned the Cy in 2009 for Kansas City.
When A.J. Pollock is introduced at the All-Star game next week, many will mutter. Like you, few baseball fans outside of Phoenix have heard of him or seen him play. At age 27, Pollock's full half-season follows about a half season of work last year. Combined, the skilled center fielder has produced a .302/.352/.483 batting line with 18 homers, 99 runs scored and 7.9 WAR. His glove will keep him on the field, so if he continues to deliver even average offense you can add his name to the long list of young stars glittering in the baseball universe these days.
Showing posts with label Jason Grilli. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jason Grilli. Show all posts
16 November 2013
Why the 2014 Pirates = the 2013 Nationals
Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of 94 games and the Wild Card in 2013. The Bucs ended two decades of futility by exceeding expectations this past season. The good people of the Steel City should pop an Iron City Brew to toast their young team's accomplishment. And then prepare for 2014, when PNC's denizens return to earth.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
02 June 2013
Amazing But True Statistics At the One-Third Mark
Baltimore's Chris
Davis has hit 20 homers and slugged .766. That's more home runs than the
entire Seattle Mariner infield, including the catcher. It's a higher
slugging percentage than any two Mariner infielders.
The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.
The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.
The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.
Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.
The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year. That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.
Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.
Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.
Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk.
Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.
D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts.
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.
Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.
Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.
The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.
The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.
The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.
Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.
The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year. That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.
Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.
Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.
Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk.
Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.
D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts.
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.
Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.
Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.
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