Chris Davis Regressing To His True Mean

An axiom of prognosticating the future performance of veterans who break out is to regress them back to the mean. Last year, Chris Davis regressed to the mean, the meaner and the meanest, putting his starting job with Baltimore in jeopardy.

This year, the bulky first baseman has found his own true average by mashing like he did in 2013 but without the gaudy average. The point with him is that as long as he goes yard and collects his walks he can be awfully valuable.

Let's take a look at the numbers:

In his first four seasons with Texas and Baltimore, Davis contributed below-average production at the plate while flashing 20-home-run power.

Then in 2013 he raked .286/.370/.634 with a league-leading 53 homers, 42 doubles and 138 RBIs, earning third place in the MVP voting.

Last season, the bottom fell out. His average sank to .196 with 26 home runs. Lumbering and defensively-challenged, Davis was a liability for the Orioles.

If you averaged those two seasons you'd get a .250 batting average with 40 home runs. With 60-70 walks, that's a middle-of-the-lineup Gulliver. Davis was headed that way, but at a lower batting average until he got hot, roughly coinciding with the O's collapse.

Today Chris Davis has the slash line up to .260/.351/.556 with 41 home runs. He's above four wins over replacement at the plate, which puts him at All-Star level with two dozen games yet to play.

When three true outcomes players like Davis -- i.e., he walks, strikes out or homers on most at bats -- get their average up to .260 they radically enhance their value, even beyond their own stat line. Opposing pitchers have to account for him every time the top of the order rolls around because of the damage he can do. That means pitching more carefully to everyone else, which leads to more opportunities up and down the lineup.

Davis is unlikely to ever again crush the record books the way he did two years ago. But .260 with 70 walks and 40 home runs will do just fine.

The AL MVP: 2012 Redux

Should we hold it against an MVP candidate that he hit just .265 with two extra base hits in September crunch time? How about that he did most of his damage before the All-Star break? Or do we acknowledge that a great May (when he hit .379 with 21 extra base hits) helps his team win just as much as a big finish? Isn't the MVP award a referendum on an entire season, irrespective of the chronology of the performance?

Miguel Cabrera led the league in batting average, on-base average, slugging percentage and OPS. He hit 44 home runs, second most in the American League. He batted .635/.850/.1.375 on 3-1 counts (40 of 'em) and .397/.529/.782 with runners in scoring position. His 2013 performance has been historic, especially in light of his 2012 domination.

So forget about his anti-climatic last month. The reason that Miguel Cabrera isn't the American League MVP is that over the course of the season, he wasn't the best player.

Yes, here we go again.

Whether Cabrera is the best hitter in the world is about as debatable as whether the U.S. has too much debt. He's hit .338 with 88 homers and 276 RBI with an OPS over 1000 over the past two seasons. (The debt, on the other hand, is hitting 20 trillion.) Baseball is more than hitting, though. It's baserunning and defense too, and Cabrera is below average in both areas. He's among the league leaders in grounding into double plays and waddles the extra base less often than most men on base. On defense, well, he's a world-class hitter. If we put his defense and baserunning in batting average terms, Cabrera would be a .240 baserunner and a .220 fielder at third.

There's an MVP candidate -- Mike Trout, of course -- who, like MIguel Cabrera, is a terror at the plate. He's hit .323/.431/.554 this year. Where Cabrera has performed 98% above average at the plate, Trout has performed 78% better.  That's a big difference. But there's a gaping chasm between Trout and Cabrera in the other aspects of the game. Trout has stolen 33 bases in 40 tries, among baseball's best. The nascent base running metrics suggest he's elite at taking the extra base as well. 

In the field, Trout is enough of a hit-killer to patrol the critical central pasture. The defensive difference between a mediocre center fielder and a mediocre third baseman is as wide as Cabrera himself. Trout is rated anywhere between just another guy and God's gift to turf by the computers, the scouts and the highlight reels. Even by the least generous accounting, Miguel Cabrera can't pack Trout's lunch with the glove.

Add it all up, divide by the level of competition they face, multiply by generosity of their home park and you get this: Mike Trout has been the most valuable to his team this year. Consider three different measuring systems using wins against replacement:

Baseball-Reference
Trout     9.1
Cabrera  7.1. 

Baseball Prospectus
Trout     10.3
Cabrera  7.4

Fangraphs 
Trout     10.2 
Cabrera  7.7

By some accounting, Cabrera isn't even the second-best player in the league this year. Josh Donaldson, Oakland's slick-fielding third baseman, has hit .302/.383/.502 with 24 homers in that trench in Oakland. Baseball-Reference has him nearly a run more valuable than Cabrera. They also rate the Atlas of New York, Robinson Cano, at 7.6 WAR for his .313/.383/.514 performance from the keystone. 

Other legitimate candidates include Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis (.287/.370/.634 with 53 homers), Texas cornerman Adrian Beltre (.315/.372/.506 with 29 HR) Boston DH David Ortiz (.308/.395/.565 and 30 HR), Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis (.281/.363/.487 with 29 of 36 steals) and Blue Jay diamond-crosser Edwin Encarnacion (.272/.370/.534 with 36 HR). Season with pitchers if you like, but they have their own award.

Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the American League again this year and it isn't particularly close. In the voting that actually bestows the award, if the race is between the tortoise, Cabrera, and the hare, Trout, we know how it will end. Because there is still a majority of sportswriters whose version of baseball is a fairy tale.

Next time, the NL MVP.

What Happened To Oriole Regression?

After a breakout 2012 in which they won 29 of 35 one-run games, barely outscored their opponents, cobbled together a roster out of chewing gum, duct tape and their entire minor league system -- and won 93 times en route to the Wild Card, everyone paying attention predicted a hard fall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2013.

And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.

And they still don't have any starting pitching.

The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well. 

They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.

Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00. 

Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.

The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can. 

Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.

Who Doesn't Belong On Your All-Star Ballot

Many Americans vote for their President, US Senator and House member without much thought. They vote for the guy they like, or listen to one speech and make up their minds or enter the voting booth not sure and pull one lever or another based on whim.

But the MLB All-Star ballot, that's a sacred rite! So, okay, there's not much point in treating the vote as if lives depend on it.

On the other hand, it's reasonable to avoid blatant injustice if you can. So let's take a look at the All-Star ballot. Here's mine:

AL
1B - Chris Davis, BAL -- maybe the first half MVP
2B - Robinson Cano, NY -- the best player having the best season
SS - Jed Lowrie, OAK -- in a close vote
3B - Miguel Cabrera, DET -- any questions?
DH - David Ortiz, BOS -- there's really no one else
C - Joe Mauer, MIN -- no contest
OF - Mike Trout, ANA -- best in the majors
OF - Adam Jones, BAL -- because he slugs and plays center
OF - Alex Gordon, KC -- he does it all

NL
1B - Joey Votto, CIN -- the best player having the best season
2B - Matt Carpenter, StL -- No track record, but he's by far the best this season
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL -- he's hurt, but give him the honor and then replace him with Segura
3B - David Wright, NY -- head and shoulders above the crowd
C - Yadier Molina, StL -- his defense gets the nod over Posey
OF - Shin-soo Choo, CIN -- he just gets on and on and on
OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT -- stud's getting it done again
OF - Domonic Brown, PHI -- gave him the nod over Gerardo Parra

Others whom you might have reasonably selected:
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ at NL 1B -- He's unlikely to maintain his .300+ average while Votto will
Jason Kipnis, CLE at AL 2B -- A breakout with the bat, but Cano does that every year
Dustin Pedroia, BOS at AL 2B -- He's got the track record but lacks Cano's power and durability
Marco Scutaro, SF at NL 2B -- Another nice season, but w/o power pales compared to Carpenter
Jhonny Peralta, DET at AL SS -- Hitting better than Lowrie and both are defensively suspect
Jean Segura, MIL at NL SS -- Hard to vote for a player based on 80 games when there's a real option
Buster Posey, SF at NL C -- You know he'll keep hitting like this; Molina probably won't
Brett Gardner, NYY at AL OF -- Splitting hairs left him off
Gerardo Parra, AZ, at NL OF -- See above note
Carlos Gonzalez, COL at NL OF -- Denver casts a shadow on his big numbers 
Michael Cuddyer, COL at NL OF -- The hitting streak will end for this .805 OPS lifetime hitter
Ryan Braun, MIL at NL OF -- missing the power and maybe the credibility
Torii Hunter, ANA; Coco Crisp, OAK; Michael Bourn, CLE at AL OF -- good players getting it done in '13.

Here are some players who will get votes but whom you can't reasonably vote for: 

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira, Curtis Granderson, Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp or anyone else who's sat this spring more than he's stood.

Yasiel Puig, because of the small sample size. The Puig phenomenon belongs at the game but he shouldn't replace someone who has earned the start all year.

Evan Longoria or Manny Machado. They're raking and deserve to be in Flushing, but voting for anyone besides Miguel Cabrera should freeze your account and void your ballot.

Edwin Encarnacion, James Loney or anyone at AL first base besides Chris Davis. If hitting .330/.404/.704 with 28 homers doesn't earn your vote, no one does.

Melky Cabrera because you thought M. Cabrera on the ballot meant Miguel and you don't know that Miguel isn't an outfielder.

Players batting .249/.298/.367 who are on your favorite team.

Albert Pujols. A vote for him indicates you are not paying sufficient attention to merit even one vote, much less the 75 cast from my computer. Long live democracy!

Amazing But True Statistics At the One-Third Mark

Baltimore's Chris Davis has hit 20 homers and slugged .766. That's more home runs than the entire Seattle Mariner infield, including the catcher. It's a higher slugging percentage than any two Mariner infielders.

The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.

The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.

Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.

The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.  

Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.

The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year.  That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.

Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.

Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.

Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk. 

Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.

D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts. 

Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.

Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.

Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.

From Hoser to Closer

Has a player who's gone oh-for-eight with five strikeouts, a double-play and utterly no defensive value ever been the hero of a game?

It happened Sunday in the 17-inning tilt between Baltimore and Boston. Having burned through his bullpen, Orioles' manager Buck Showalter sent flailing designated hitter Chris Davis to the mound. Davis hurled two scoreless frames, fanning a pair and earning the win as his teammates plated three runs in the 17th.

In other words, Davis was responsible for 15 outs: nine that he hit into and six that he induced.

The 26-year-old right-hander last toed the rubber for Navarro (Texas) Junior College in 2006. It's also the first time in 2012 that he's made eight consecutive outs. Davis was philosophical about the turn of events.

Summoned to pitch, he thought to himself, "Sweet, I get to try something different today, because hitting ain't working." 

By the way, Rube Waddell of the Boston Americans beat the Philadelphia Athletics 4-2 in 20 innings on July 4, 1905 while taking the double-collar.

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