Matt Harvey is a mess. You may have noticed. The Dark Knight appears to have struck midnight and turned into a pumpkin. So, of course, I want him for my team.
Following stellar freshman and sophomore half-seasons for the Mets, a visit to Dr. Andrews in 2015 and then a bounce-back junior year, Harvey stood at 25-18, 2.53 with 449 strikeouts and just 94 walks in 427 innings heading into last season. He lived off 98 mph heat, two wicked secondary pitches, and praise from hitters and former pitchers alike. His future seemed assured
But the unsettling stirrings were already there, even beyond the serious health issue. Harvey and his agent, Darth Vader Scott Boras, had complained about overuse heading into the playoffs after his TJ surgery, a complaint they later backed down from. Then 2016 turned into a disaster, with his fastball cooling to 92-93, his ERA ballooning to 4.86 and an eventual diagnosis of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.
Get Rid of the Bum
Coming into 2017, no one knew what to expect. With less heat, Harvey could no longer simply overpower hitters. Questions remained about whether he could retire batters with a different pitching style than the fastball-first repertoire that got him there. And then last weekend, when Harvey got sauced and missed a game, then feigned self-righteousness and threatened to appeal the resulting suspension. He eventually backed down and acknowledged his immaturity.
Met fans would like to be rid of Matt Harvey, but the team labors in the real world. In that place, Harvey's value is at its lowest point, given his lack of performance, character and health. Although he has regained some of his high heat, the early results this season, following last year's travails, suggest this knight will never regain his armor.
So what is Matt Harvey at this point? Tantalizing potential and nothing more.
The problem for Met brass is this: every other team knows all this, decreasing Harvey's trade value to near-nothing With team control ending after next season, even a mediocre Harvey will soon get much more expensive. If Sandy Alderson wants to rid the franchise of a perceived cancer, he has no choice but to trade him for an empty gesture.
Give Me A Shot at the Knight
The Mets really have no choice but to hang onto Harvey and see what he can offer. Even if he's not the Cy Young candidate he appeared on his way to becoming, league-average starters have tremendous value, particularly to a team with Wild Card aspirations and a disintegrating rotation. But if they decide to dump him, I want my team to snag him.
The reason is that it won't take much to secure this lottery ticket with a chance of hitting. Maybe the payoff won't be the mega jackpot, but with so little invested, even a small payoff is a positive development. Matt Harvey has already been successful in the Majors, which puts him ahead of any prospect my team would have to relinquish.
When Theo Epstein took over the Chicago Cubs the bare cupboard allowed him an opportunity to reconfigure the franchise to his liking. Epstein decided to rebuild with hitting and defense, and pick up arms wherever he could. The Cubs drafted everyday players, developed everyday players, hunted internationally for everyday players, and when the time was right, went fishing for pitchers in free agency, low-cost trades and the like.
When you build behind pitching, you're building on a foundation of uncertainly, like a house built on sand. Scouts and seamheads know there's only a little hyperbole in the bromide abbreviated as TINSTAAPP -- there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Banking millions of dollars and a pennant on arms, shoulders, elbows and other appendages withstanding the blunt force trauma of snapping off sliders and cranking up fastballs 90 times a game is a fool's errand.
Ladies and gentleman, I give you the 2017 New York Mets.
Not so much by design as by happenstance, the studs holding up the walls in Queens are all of the hurling variety. Thor, the Dark Knight, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler have all demonstrated ace or near-ace ability, and present as a group the most formidable five starters since at least the '90s Braves.
At the same time, only one star player graces the everyday lineup, Yo, and there are even questions about him. Baseball Prospectus's projection system has the Mets winning the division with the second best run prevention in the league, but also below average offense.
If Terry Collins can coax 130 starts out of his impossible sextet, the hitting might not matter. With continued dominance and newfound health 90 feet from the plate, the Mets could rout the division and claim the NL's best record. That is the formula that drove them to the pennant in 2015, though with a somewhat different crew.
It Isn't Gonna Be That Way
Ah, to dream. Gsellman owns all of eight starts in the Major Leagues. Matz shut it down in mid-August last season. Wheeler's a wreck after post-TJ surgery complications and Harvey looks more like the rabbit than the Knight. That doesn't even account for the prospect of injury every time a previously healthy pitcher like Syndergaard takes the mound.
The betting line on starts by the top six starters is probably in the 110-120 area and betting the over seems foolhardy. The team showed last year they could sneak into the playoffs without the staff intact, but one-and-done isn't any pennant contender's idea of success. Besides, what if the mound arms implode? It could get uglier than a Twitter war with Charles Barkley. The franchise has some good options in a pinch, but not #2-starter types for extended periods.
Fangraphs' projection system says the Mets' pitching staff (including relievers) will produce roughly twice as much WAR as the everyday players. That assumes a full season (143 starts) from the front line. A couple of injuries could easily cost 10 wins of value.
Every team has best and worst case scenarios but the standard deviations on this team are the largest. It wouldn't be shocking for them to knock on the door of 100 wins -- or 84 losses. There really isn't any other team you could say that about at season's start.
In the 1950 movie "Harvey" Jimmy Stewart's character keeps the world at bay with his invisible six-foot tall rabbit, Harvey.
In 2015, the Mets kept pennant talk at bay with an invisible six-foot controversy about Harvey, the pitcher. It seems that his doctor and agent want him to return home after hurling a definitive number of innings. The Mets, on the other hand, want Harvey available for either the playoffs, or for the race that will punch their ticket.
Harvey for his part, appears to be listening to whoever spoke to him last.
It's obvious that both sides have reason for concern. In his first year following elbow surgery, Harvey might be medically fragile and need to avoid throwing while fatigued. This has got to be a consideration for the team as well, which receives no benefit from his massive talent if he's laid up again.
The Strasburg experiment, followed by the Nationals' ineptitude this campaign, has sucked the justification out of speculative benching during a post-season run. The Mets are going to need their 6'4" righty to succeed in the playoffs.
And so, the obvious and predictable conclusion. Terry Collins has the starters in a six-man rotation, with Harvey skipping some starts. But if they make the playoffs -- which now seems likely -- all of Gotham will be relying on its Dark Knight.
After all, Harvey the movie had a happy ending.
P.S. With their come-from-ahead collapse last night, Washington is now six out with 24 to play. But keep in mind, the Mets held a seven game cushion in '07 with 17 to play before crashing out of October. Those screams last night at Nationals Park were the Fat Lady's sister singing.
Alfonso Soriano is poised to become the 14th Major Leaguer to reach 400 homers and 300 steals.
Three-time
All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have
been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.
Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why.
The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.
Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done.
Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.
Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.
*Chris Davis is the second.
The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.
David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.
You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.
Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.
Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk.
Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.
Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.
If the first three weeks of the season are any indication, the Mets' Matt Harvey is the greatest pitcher of all time. Harvey has dominated opposing batters to the tune of 4-0, 0.93 with 10 hits allowed in 29 innings. He'd won just three games in his entire career before this (10 starts last season.)
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
