Ask yourself if this sounds like a familiar strategy: Just sign all the best players without much concern for their cost. Figure out where they'll play and how they'll fit together later. Treat the luxury tax like a flea bite. And if the new mates stiffen up, just accumulate more high-priced free agents.
If you're thinking that's the Yankees, you're off by about 300 miles. This appears to be the new strategy of the Sons of New England, stung by their last place finish in 2014.
Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were the two most accomplished everyday players on the market this winter. Although the Red Sox' primary need is starting pitching -- Rubby De La Rosa is their #2 starter -- they committed themselves to five years and $205 million for a pair of injury-inclined infielders not likely to age well or deliver much defense going forward.
What Does $205 Million Buy?
Sandoval is a .294 lifetime hitter with 15-20 home run power and a surprisingly facile glove given his spherical shape. The Sox get his age 28-32 years, so the odds are reasonable that his glove will play at third for the length of the contract, as long as his body holds up. The Panda played 157 games this past season, but made extended excursions to the DL in 2011 and 2012 and sports a body type that doesn't necessarily inspire confidence.
Ramirez is an even tougher nut to crack. While he profiles as a superior hitter than Sandoval, HanRam is two years older, rickety (93 games/year since 2011) and sure to be moved, mercifully, from shortstop. Whether he can comfortably handle a corner outfield slot is a matter of conjecture.
Perchance, To Dream
Of course, there's plenty of upside on these signings. Sandoval solidifies the hot corner, Ramirez stays healthier in left than at short and teams up with Yoenis Cespedes and youngster Mookie Betts for a dynamic outer pasture. Both new acquisitions swat more big flies in comfy Fenway.
And then, luxury tax be damned, GM Ben Cherrington nabs Max Sherzer and/or Jon Lester and/or James Shields and/or Hiroki Kuroda to flesh out the rotation and put Boston back in the playoff hunt in 2015.
Underlying these plans is one critical concept: money is just a counting stat. The best strategy for regular-season success is to put the best players on the field. That appears to be the Red Sox' new strategy. Meanwhile, the Yankees are silently racing headlong beneath the salary cap.
Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts
27 November 2014
04 April 2010
Almost Got To Opening Day Without Mentioning Sox-Yanks
Though I'd hesitate to call it Opening Day, the 2010 MLB season kicks off tonight at Fenway with the Yankees in town. Baseball is hoping to emulate NASCAR, which fires off the season with its biggest race. Given what a miserable anti-climax the World Series has become, it's fitting, if not inspiring.
While most teams ponder the question marks, the two behemoths in battle tonight ponder where first they'll plunder for further talent monopolization. The big question for New York is, at which position will they fail to place an All-Star. (Answer: outfield.) In Boston, there actually are three interesting side stories that may help determine how much of a fight they can muster.
The first two questions are variations on a theme: What of...? Daisuke Matsuzaka and David Ortiz. Daisuke has played in the States for three seasons, and presented to America three different Daisukes. Version 1, the "rookie," was a strikeout machine who logged 200+ innings of 4.40 RA ball. Capital.
2008's Daisuke v.2 was an odd duck. His spectacular 18-3, 3.11 RA line masked many problems. He walked five batters a game and burned himself out by the fifth inning, forcing the deep Bosox pen to bail him out constantly. That they did put a beautiful facade on a structurally unsound foundation, which we saw last year when his arm fell off. Daisuke v.3 was painful: just 12 starts and a 5.76 RA with 10 homers in 60 innings.
All things being equal (which they aren't; how can all things be equal?), Matsuzaka is something between the lucky drunk of 2008 and the (World Baseball Classic-induced?) basket case of 2009. The stathead projection systems, which are taking account of his DL stint to open the season, see him pitching around 150 innings this year with an ERA back around 4.20, good for about two wins a year compared to a fifth starter off the trash heap. That's good third or fourth starter quality.
Two versions of David Ortiz showed up last year, the aging slugger who couldn't hit a pumpkin before the All-Star break and the 27 home runs post-ASB. Undoubtedly, the wrist injury of '08 was part of the equation, but turning 230 pounds into baseball's golden years -- he's 35 this year -- is likely responsible for some of it too. Look for Ortiz to continue to be an asset, but a depreciating one, particularly since he can't play the field.
Which brings us to the epic saga of Mike Lowell. Any other team thanks their lucky stars for a slick-fielding hot cornerman with an .811 OPS and hopes his hip is hippie-dippie in '10. The Sox, they can't afford to hope. So they bring aboard Adrian Beltre, which leaves them with two viable third basemen, three first basemen (Youklis, Lowell and Victor Martinez), two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and no space to fill at DH. This is a good thing, especially in the AL Beast.
Varitek and Lowell will start the season talking old times on the bench, but they could be significant -- if expensive -- spare parts if injuries strike. Because Terry Francona has so many above-average permutations at his disposal, a sprain here and tear there won't cause much dislocation in the lineup. Don't assume the Red Sox want to trade Lowell just because he's not a first-stringer. Mark my word: he'll get more than half a season's at bats.
The media has done a good job covering Boston management's new-found romance with pitching and defense, but what they're really banking on is depth. With Lowell on the bench and Matsuzaka as the sixth starter (for now), the Sox are 2010's anti-Mets. Let's hope (as we Yankee-despisers are wont to do) that's enough to beat NY's other team.
b
15 August 2009
Taking Offense in the East
When you add a healthy Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon on a 30-HR pace and Robby Cano's Dr. Jekyll side to a lineup of Texeira, Rodriguez and Jeter, it doesn't matter how many Nick Swishers or Brett Gardners nose their way into the lineup, you're going to be near the lead in the Majors in run scoring. And if you can get plus performances out of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes behind mercenaries Sabathia and Burnett, well, it's no surprise that you've got the best record in the game.
The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.
Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266
In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.
The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.
Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.
The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.
Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.
Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.
Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
b
The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.
Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266
In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.
The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.
Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.
The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.
Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.
Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.
Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
b
25 April 2009
Sanity In An Insane World
As usual, Fox subjected me again this Saturday to the Yankees, without whom apparently baseball would not exist. I live 750 miles from NY, but get the Yankees telecast probably half the time. Add in the Mets and Braves (ostensibly my home team) and you have nearly 100% of the games we digital box users get to see.
In any case, the Yankees once again held their opponent to under four touchdowns, limiting the Red Sox to 16 runs. Of course, being the home team, Boston didn't bat in the 9th and since they failed to get out of the gate against AJ Burnett in the first four innings, they tallied all 16 scores from the 5th through 8th frames. The game exposed the Yankees' two major weaknesses: utterly no bench and worse relief than Srebrenica. Because he's forced to carry 13 pitchers, Joe Girardi is out of options after he pinch hits twice.
**
It was fun to note how fickle this game is. Reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia committed a costly baserunning gaffe with a man on third to extinguish an inning and then Bucknered an inning-ending grounder into a two-run, game tying error. Meanwhile reputed gamer Derek Jeter fanned in a critical situation. (I believe there was second and third with one out in a one-run game.) Even Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, who by their own on-air admission stifle orgasms everytime they mention Jeter's name, were forced to admit that it was the biggest at-bat in the contest up to that point.
Meanwhile, AJ Burnett cruised through the first four innings and then coughed up a hairball in the fifth, serving up a bases-juiced tater to former Major Leaguer Jason Varitek. ( You may be too young to remember when he could hit.) For Mike Lowell, on the other hand, it was a moral victory if he could just make contact against Burnett in the first five innings; he ended up with a homer, a double and six RBIs.
**
Though he was ineffective for the first five innings, Josh Beckett found himself staked to an 8-6 lead heading into the top of the 6th. At that point, McCarver opined that Terry Francona is a moron. Well, he didn't say it quite that way; what he said was that Francona was sending Beckett back into the fray so he could get the win. If Terry Francona is managing so that his players can compile personal statistics -- meaningless ones at that -- he is mentally retarded. I say this with all due respect to people with mental retardation, and I think we can all agree that no such person should be the field manager of a $100 million enterprise. Based on that comment, I guess we can include Mr. McCarver. (Also worth noting: Beckett was already positioned to chalk up the W.)
Fortunately for Saux Nation, Francona did no such thing. He sent out Beckett either because he thought the right-hander had found his way in the scoreless 5th or because his bullpen was worn out from the previous night's 11-inning affair. As it turned out, Beckett surrendered two more runs without recording an out and was long gone by the time Hideki Okajima was "credited" with the win.
Okajima "earned" the win by getting an out to end the seventh inning, watching his team score three runs in the bottom of the frame to provide a two-run cushion, and then sitting on the bench and admiring the work of Ramon Ramirez, who shut down the Yankees in the 8th. This was highly necessary after Okajima allowed half the lead to disappear when he grooved one to Robby Cano, who redirected it some 400 feet in the other direction. Of course, on an afternoon when Beckett and Burnett each pitched five innings, gave up eight runs and avoided being charged with a loss, Okajima's performance appeared win-worthy.
b
In any case, the Yankees once again held their opponent to under four touchdowns, limiting the Red Sox to 16 runs. Of course, being the home team, Boston didn't bat in the 9th and since they failed to get out of the gate against AJ Burnett in the first four innings, they tallied all 16 scores from the 5th through 8th frames. The game exposed the Yankees' two major weaknesses: utterly no bench and worse relief than Srebrenica. Because he's forced to carry 13 pitchers, Joe Girardi is out of options after he pinch hits twice.
**
It was fun to note how fickle this game is. Reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia committed a costly baserunning gaffe with a man on third to extinguish an inning and then Bucknered an inning-ending grounder into a two-run, game tying error. Meanwhile reputed gamer Derek Jeter fanned in a critical situation. (I believe there was second and third with one out in a one-run game.) Even Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, who by their own on-air admission stifle orgasms everytime they mention Jeter's name, were forced to admit that it was the biggest at-bat in the contest up to that point.
Meanwhile, AJ Burnett cruised through the first four innings and then coughed up a hairball in the fifth, serving up a bases-juiced tater to former Major Leaguer Jason Varitek. ( You may be too young to remember when he could hit.) For Mike Lowell, on the other hand, it was a moral victory if he could just make contact against Burnett in the first five innings; he ended up with a homer, a double and six RBIs.
**
Though he was ineffective for the first five innings, Josh Beckett found himself staked to an 8-6 lead heading into the top of the 6th. At that point, McCarver opined that Terry Francona is a moron. Well, he didn't say it quite that way; what he said was that Francona was sending Beckett back into the fray so he could get the win. If Terry Francona is managing so that his players can compile personal statistics -- meaningless ones at that -- he is mentally retarded. I say this with all due respect to people with mental retardation, and I think we can all agree that no such person should be the field manager of a $100 million enterprise. Based on that comment, I guess we can include Mr. McCarver. (Also worth noting: Beckett was already positioned to chalk up the W.)
Fortunately for Saux Nation, Francona did no such thing. He sent out Beckett either because he thought the right-hander had found his way in the scoreless 5th or because his bullpen was worn out from the previous night's 11-inning affair. As it turned out, Beckett surrendered two more runs without recording an out and was long gone by the time Hideki Okajima was "credited" with the win.
Okajima "earned" the win by getting an out to end the seventh inning, watching his team score three runs in the bottom of the frame to provide a two-run cushion, and then sitting on the bench and admiring the work of Ramon Ramirez, who shut down the Yankees in the 8th. This was highly necessary after Okajima allowed half the lead to disappear when he grooved one to Robby Cano, who redirected it some 400 feet in the other direction. Of course, on an afternoon when Beckett and Burnett each pitched five innings, gave up eight runs and avoided being charged with a loss, Okajima's performance appeared win-worthy.
b
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