Mid-Season Questions Answered

Been fielding a lot of informal questions during this extraordinary baseball season. Here are some of them...

Q. Is the ball juiced?
A. Some research, to which I've previously alluded, seems to indicate it's bouncier and the seams are flatter. The differences are minute but they add up over thousands of pitches thrown, which only takes a few games. I doubt it's purposeful but it seems to be a factor in all the long balls.

Q. Are all the home runs and strikeouts bad for baseball?
A. All the talk about home runs and strikeouts being bad for baseball is bad for baseball. The game itself is fine. If no one informed you about all the home runs and strikeouts you would hardly realize it by watching. 

The difference between this remarkable season and the previous record for home runs is a bomb every 10 games per team. Let's say you're a Padres fan,* would you even notice an extra blast every two weeks?

* I picked them to avoid confusion because there aren't actually any Padre fans.

Sure, a large number of strikeouts and walks is dull. Home runs are exciting and make every lead a hair-trigger situation. So on balance, let's just enjoy the games.

Q. Can Aaron Judge keep this up? Will he win the MVP?
A. It's always unlikely that the hottest player in the game will remain that hot all season, and that's particularly true of anyone who has never done it before. And it's double true with a cherry on top when his BABIP is .400. At the same time, only a truly good hitter can produce an 1.150 OPS over 80 games. So I expect Judge to regress some, but he's obviously a very good hitter. By the way, he's also athletic despite his size and has flashed solid defensive and base running skills.

Q. Are the Twins really this good?
A. "This" is the illusion of weak competition. The Twins are barely a .500 team, but because the rest of the division's GPS is recalculating, they've been occupying first place. So sure, they can continue to play .500 ball and finish 10 games out of first.

Q. Are the Phillies really this bad?
A. We have this false notion that a franchise that flips its veterans for minor league talent will automatically contend five years later. It turns out the young prospects acquired by the Phillies just aren't that good, whether because of talent or development. The Braves are experiencing the same problem, though they have executed some wily trades and signings of veterans and earned an upgrade to mediocrity.

Q. Which team currently under .500 has the best chance of earning a playoff spot?
A.  With the Rockies possibly fading, I'd say ... the Cardinals? If the Mets get healthy-ish it could be them.

Q. Is all this launch angle and exit velocity stuff just a fad? Don't you still have to hit the ball to be good?
A. Oh yeah, just like the running craze. In the 70s, people would get up early in the morning, put on sweats and special running shoes, eat some high protein food like an egg or a shake, and go outside to run for miles. Just run, and end up right back where they started. I couldn't wait for that fad to end.

Q. Some folks are saying the Orioles are just awful but it's being camouflaged by their hot start. Do you think they're awful and should blow it up?
A. The people who say the Orioles are awful said the Orioles were awful in 2016. And 2015. And 2014, 2013 and 2012. During that time they won the division once, the Wild Card twice and never finished under .500. I think the Orioles are less awful than the projection tools of those who denigrate the Orioles.

That said, man their pitching sucks.

Q. Is Craig Kimbrel going to the Hall of Fame?
A. I'm sure he can afford a flight to Albany and a car rental to Cooperstown.

As for enshrinement, it's so tricky with relievers. At this moment, there is not a single pitcher in the Hall who was primarily a closer. Rivera will be the first. 

That said, Kimbrel's leading the league in saves for the fifth time in nine years and sports a 1.80 career ERA and 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Let's see him do that for another eight years and then I'll guarantee him entrance without a ticket.

Q. Which active players would make the Hall if they retired today?
A. Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Kershaw (it's his 10th season), Beltre, Beltran. Maybe Cano.

Q. Who will be the next guy after that group into Cooperstown?
A. Buster Posey? Heck, it might be Trout. He's already 13th in WAR among active players.

Also, I didn't include Utley, but he's right on the borderline. Easy now to forget how terrific he was '05-'09.

Q. Who was on your All-Star ballot?
A. I doubt you want to read the whole thing. I did put Trout on the team so he can be honored and replaced by Mookie Betts. I chose Paul Goldschmidt over Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto and the injured Freddie Freeman for NL first baseman, and Justin Smoak over Logan Morrison for AL first baseman, mostly because Smoak is from my neck of the woods. NL third base was the toughest pick with Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw. I picked Arenado.

Q. What if the Cubs are like this all season?
A. Imagine the NL Central champ with 84 wins. But I really do believe they have too much talent (and money) to be this middling for an entire season. The rotation is their Achilles heal right now and they can always go into the market for a pitcher. Or, they can just reload next year.

Q. Are the Nats toast with that bullpen?
A. They'd cruise into the playoffs with 50 Cent as their closer, so the question is about the post-season. The benefit of having one truly glaring need is that it's easy to fill that hole and instantly improve. So Washington will snag a closer and set-up man before the trade deadline passes.

Q. How good does Bryce Harper have to be in his career to not be considered a bust?
A. He's got to be near Hall worthy. Keep in mind, though, he's younger than Aaron Judge and already owns 26 WAR. He's almost a lock for 60 or 70 career WAR, which puts him in the Hall conversation.

Q. I'm a Met fan. Woe is me. What should we do?
A. Wail unceasingly. Rend garments. 

At least you have the Jets and Kni...nevermind.

Q. If you were a member of a championship team, would you go to the White House to meet the President?
A. Of course. This isn't about the buffoon in office; it's about our team's accomplishment being honored at the White House. 

But I'd leave my wife home.

Q. Why are there no Lavar Balls in baseball?
A. For the same reason there were no Lavar Balls in any sport until this year. Guy is a genius who has made himself rich and famous. And anyone who pays more than 50 bucks for his sneakers is a moron.

Q. From the influx of young infielders who burst on the scene together, who do you think we'll be remembering in 20 years and who will turn out to be pretenders?
A. I don't think any of them are pretenders. Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Xander Boegarts, Andrelton Simmons, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have all proven they're the real deals. The days of shortstops and second basemen being the weakest hitters are over for a while.

Q. Should the Yankees acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline?
A. They have to be very careful not to mortgage the future. They're a juggernaut waiting to happen and they can't allow premature success to divert them from their plan. Or, they could, and that would be fine with me.

Q. The Giants' record in the second half will be...
A. .500 or better. They're not this bad and Bumgarner returns. But prognosticating baseball is for fools who are soon parted from their money.

Q. What player's absence would hurt his team most?
A. Chris Sale or Max Scherzer. Neither team has the rotation to incur the loss of their ace.

Q. Same question with position players only.
A. It'd be interesting to see how many other Yankees would fall off if they lost Judge.

Arenado off the Rockies would hurt because his defense polishes up the pitching and Colorado has to hang onto that Wild Card for 81 games.

Q. Joey Gallo has 20 homers and 13 singles. Have you ever seen anything like that?
A. I wrote about Adam Dunn doing that a few years back, but it wasn't such a wide margin. Gallo is the new breed of Three True Outcomes hitter -- young and athletic.  Guy is sub-Mendoza but playing regularly because of the jacks and his defense and base running.

Q. You've made a habit of denigrating Derek Jeter's diving catch into the stands. So what was the best catch you've ever seen?
A. It's not denigrating Jeter's catch to point out the fact that he didn't come anywhere near diving into the stands to make it. He caught the ball in fair territory 15 feet from the stands, took two long strides and then flung himself over the railing. We see catches this good or better twice a week on Web Gems, but because they weren't made by Derek Jeter, they're forgotten five minutes later.

Here's a screen grab of your diving catch in the stands.

The best catch I've ever seen was made by Garry Matthews Jr. and has never received its due.

Q. Why do you suck?
A. Because I drink through a straw.

...and on that note, Happy Independence Day and let's have a great second half of the season.

Jansen and Kimbrel: Order is Restored

The most amazing relief pitcher in baseball is Kenley Jansen.

The most valuable relief pitcher in baseball is Craig Kimbrel.

 
All is right with the world.

In 30 frames Jansen and his all-World cutter have whiffed 50 batters and walked, hey, where did the walks go? I can't find any walks. Did you see his walks?

No one has ever fanned 36 batters without issuing a free pass. Jansen has blown by that by 33%. He has a K/BB rate of . . . infinity.

Jansen's 0.91 ERA is fueled by a very low Z-contact rate (rate of contact on balls in the strike zone) and a very high O-swing rate (rate of swings at balls outside the strike zone.) Put them together and you get a finisher who is flummoxing the National League. He has allowed 17 hits and recorded 15 saves. 

Whew!

Kimbrel, now in his second season in Boston, might be even more dominating. He leads all relievers in WAR with 2.2 after just 70 games. He's on pace for the best season by WAR of his illustrious career, better than any season as a closer by Mariano Rivera.

In 32 innings, only nine batsmen have hit safely against him. With five walks and 59 strikeouts -- nearly two an inning, Kimbrel is simply overpowering AL batters. His 0.85 ERA and 0.44 WHIP outshine everyone, including Jansen.

For his career, Jansen has a lifetime 2.11 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and 682 Ks in 438 IP. 

For his career, Kimbrel has a lifetime 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 705 Ks in 433 IP.  After 2017, he will have Cy Young votes in five of his nine seasons. Coming out of the bullpen!

For both pitchers, none of that includes the last 60% of their best year so far.

It's nice to see these two performing at their peak. It makes it fun to think about what would happen if they kept it up for a bunch more years.

Craig Kimbrel Is Proof of Mariano Rivera

In his first five seasons in baseball, Craig Kimbrel was turning the best hitters in the world into pretzels -- the greatest reliever baseball had ever seen.

The undersized Brave mowed down 476 batters in his first 289 innings and allowed just a 1.43 ERA. He relinquished a total of 12 home runs -- in five years! -- and finished off 186 saves, the most in the NL in four of those five seasons. Despite the size of his workload, he earned top 10 Cy Young votes for all but his rookie season.

Then Kimbrel became arbitration-eligible, and the Braves inked him to a deal that hiked his salary 11-fold to $7 million in just its first year. In deep rebuilding mode and at the urging of this blog, the Braves suckered A.J. Preller into taking Kimbrel and B.J. Upton's death-contract to San Diego for players, prospects and massive salary relief.

But I haven't heard much about him lately...
Imagine the setup: the Incredible Hulk of closers moving to the most demoralizing park for hitters the game has conjured. Petco Park saps 14% from hitters' production, a gilding of the lily that Kimbrel hardly needed.

But a funny thing happened on the way to immortality: Kimbrel lost some of his mojo. Batters began timing his fastball -- just a bit -- and squared him up for homers twice as often. His ERA ballooned from otherworldly to excellent (2.68) and his save numbers dropped by 20%.

Quickly pivoting, Preller sent Kimbrel to Boston for pennies on the dollar, but Kimbrel again took a step back in 2016. Battling injuries for the first time, his walk rate spiked, sending his ERA to 3.40. His saves plummeted again and his value, once reliably more than three wins a year, stood at 0.9 wins last season. The projections suggest that this is the new Craig Kimbrel -- a flame-throwing reliever whose high heat is losing its novelty.

All of this is commentary on Mariano Rivera. Wha?

In his best year, Rivera was a pale shadow of Craig Kimbrel 1.0. He never fanned batters at such a rate. He never dominated hitters so thoroughly. He merely converted his split-finger into relentless awesomeness -- year after year after year.

In Rivera's worst year, his ERA jumped to 3.15. But advanced metrics suggested he was mostly unlucky and the following season -- at age 38 -- he allowed 49 baserunners in 71 innings and dropped his ERA to 1.40.

Mariano in his 40s
In his 40s, Rivera saved 126 games, sported a 1.95 ERA and allowed a WHIP under one. Included in that period was a year missed due to knee surgery and his comeback (and final) season.

In other words, any notion we might have had that Rivera was turning into the game's second best reliever of all time have evaporated, just like that. While Kimbrel's inaugural five campaigns rank up there with the best ever, his two seasons since would rank as Rivera's worst. Kimbrel would have had to maintain his pace for 15 years to match Mariano -- and he has begun to wear down after five.

The name of the greatest reliever of all time will not be changing anytime soon, and by soon we mean at least two decades. Craig Kimbrel's "struggles" remind us how unbelievably great Mariano Rivera was.

Craig Kimbrel Stunk In 2015 . . . Relative to Craig Kimbrel

You've likely heard the news that closer Craig Kimbrel is house-hunting again -- in his third city this calendar year.

The Padres acquired Kimbrel from the Braves in one of those modern-day swaps in which one team gets by far the best player and by far the worst contract in exchange for some lesser players and prospects. One team gets future value and salary relief -- i.e. money -- and the other makes a blockbuster move for right now.

But as you now know, but San Diego GM AJ Preller did not at the time, his team face-planted and now needs to regroup. So he off-loaded Kimbrel to Boston for four farmhands.

It's Kimbrel's first foray in the American League, so the results will be interesting. But we already know how he would fare away from The South. The Alabama native suffered the worst season of his career -- fewest games, fewest innings, fewest strikeouts, lowest K rate, most runs allowed, highest ERA by nearly double, most home runs allowed and only season without Cy Young votes.

That's some disaster, huh? Well, not quite. Kimbrel's 39 saves for that 74-win jalopy aren't too shabby, nor are his 2.58 ERA, his 13.2 K per nine innings or his K/BB ratio of four. He still fanned more than a third of the batters he faced.

In addition, he front-loaded most of his struggles. In the second half, Craig Kimbrel was so unhittable it was like he was ... Craig Kimbrel. The league batted .120 against him, managed four extra base hits and saddled him with a 1.73 ERA.

It's a testament to how transcendent Kimbrel had been that he could fall so far to that. If he returns to form at Fenway he'll be the toast of New England.

Where Are the All-Time Greats?

A recent spate of Hall of Fame retirements has transformed today's Major Leagues from a repository of the enshrined to a roster of stars whose exact composition is a mystery. Players who are Hall of Fame locks right now number three: Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki and Miguel Cabrera.

Compare that to 10 years ago when Alex Rodriguez could have cruised into Cooperstown with hardly a dissenter. Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Derek Jeter, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Greg Madduz, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all dancing their waltzes into baseball history.

Purely on the merits, of course, ARod is a no doubter, just as Bonds and Clemens were. The forecast for any of them seeing their bust carved is partly dubious with a chance of impossible. Illicit performance boosting may also work against the borderline case of David Ortiz. Infielders Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre have to rate as probably nots, barring late career second acts (or third acts in Beltre's case.) Carlos Beltran's candidacy depends on how much voters have evolved to appreciate all-around skills, and then which way their coins toss.

Of course, there are some mid-career probablies out there. You have to like Buster Posey's chances, particularly if he can remain behind the plate. On top of his lifetime .300+ batting average, he owns a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three World Championships. In his sixth season, at age 28, Posey is at it again, posting a .314 TAv.

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel are on promising trajectories as well, though Kimbrel has been lit up in 16 innings this year and Kershaw's powers seemed to have disappeared, Samson-style, with the loss of his hair, in his case facial. Those last three names illuminate how wanting the Majors are today in pitching greatness. The top active hurling careers belong to Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter and Joe Nathan, fine moundsmen all, but hardly bronze material.  Other than King Felix, there will not be a single legitimate pitching candidate for a decade or so after the current backlog clears out.

Then there is Yadier Molina, who needs to keep hitting in the sunset years of his career to be considered this generation's Ivan Rodriguez. Twenty-nine-year-old Evan Longoria has a shot if he returns to the form of his first five full seasons. Joey Votto would have to maintain that consistent excellence for another decade to earn Hall stripes.  And we can always dream on the second and third-year players like Puig, Cespedes, Harvey, Abreu and their ilk. But potential outnumbers fruition by a healthy margin.

Experience tells us that a couple of those named will slide off the list, just as Nomar Garciaparra, Tim Lincecum and Joe Mauer did. And others will climb on, following a path paved by Paul Molitor and Sandy Koufax, to name two. Still, it's likely that the ballot clogging now vexing Hall of Fame voting will not be an issue a decade or two from now.

Forget About Hamiltons, the Kimbrel Trade Was About Millions

Well, apparently John Hart has been Braindrizzling himself. Reliable sources (my gut) report that Hart read this Braindrizzling post and was inspired to consider flipping Craig Kimbrel for a package of young players, salary relief and Twizzlers.

It's actually much more than a simple Superman for prospects swap that Hart pulled off with his San Diego brethren -- and much less. Kimbrel and the sunk cost formerly known as B.J. Upton -- how desperate do you have to be to change your name to Melvin? -- bring back Cameron Maybin, offsetting sunk cost Carlos Quentin, a pair of prospects and an early second-round draft pick.

Pitching prospect Matt Wisler is highly regarded, and Maybin stole 40 bases and owned centerfield for 150 games four years ago, but that's a petty haul for the greatest closer the game has ever known, half-a-decade edition.

Indeed, the Braves have basically flipped Kimbrel for savings. Upton and Kimbrel will now cost the San Diego franchise $80 million through 2017, while Quentin and Maybin amount to just $23 million of albatross. (The Braves immediately ate Quentin's contract and cut him loose.) If that $57 million difference means signing coveted draft picks above slot, coaxing an international star their way and bringing in a useful free agent in 2017, then the deal might work out.

Or, if Atlanta has reason to believe that Maybin's speed and defense can trump his fragility and whiffle bat, perhaps that's a greater return than it appears on first blush. But first blush is underwhelmed. James Shields netted for the Rays Wil Myers, a top farmhand who crushed AL pitching as a rookie. For Kimbrel, the Braves' prospect return is more volume than quality.

For the Padres, who appear to have sacrificed the rest of eternity for a 2015 pennant, this deal makes sense in that it's more of that strategy. A.J. Preller has now stripped the farm, and Kimbrel does nothing for their putrid infield or their porous outfield defense, but none of that will matter if Kimbrel leads the Padres to a crown. And with baseball's most electrifying closer mowing down batters in baseball's offensive cemetery, well, it could resurrect the undead Padres.

Should the Braves Trade Craig Kimbrel?

You may have heard that when Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel takes the mound it's like a shark in a sea of chum The greatest reliever in baseball history, Mariano Rivera, wishes he had Kimbrel's talent. In his first-ballot Hall of Fame career, Rivera managed just three seasons with better ERAs, relative to league average, than Kimbrel has averaged over his first six seasons.

During that time, Kimbrel's 1.43 ERA compares to a league ERA of 3.82. He has toyed with NL batters like no other pitcher ever has. In his 289 innings, Kimbrel has fanned 476 batters and allowed just 153 hits. He's led the league in saves each of his five full seasons.

Better yet, the Braves have enjoyed Kimbrel's contributions at bargain bin prices, at least in the baseball universe. He's earned just $8.7 million, and even with the lucrative five-year deal they inked last season, the Braves are on the hook for just $46 million over the next four seasons for a pitcher who is just 27 and has missed a lifetime total of six days due to injury.

PECOTA projects that Kimbrel will whiff 103 batters in 64 innings in 2015, producing 45 saves with a 1.34 ERA. Keep in mind that projection systems are inherently conservative. If he has a good year you can expect him to cure cancer, exterminate ISIS and reach a higher state of consciousness.

All of which is prelude to the idea that the Braves should consider trading Craig Kimbrel. A closer's value is limited by the paucity of innings he pitches. For all his heat-firing transcendence, Kimbrel has retired just 867 batters in his career, earning the Braves just 12 wins against replacement, according to Baseball Reference.

Of course, closers don't just pitch innings; they pitch critical innings. Their value is heightened by the importance of the situations in which they appear. Closers generally enter tight games to secure key outs with the outcome on the line. 

But: there will be no critical innings in Atlanta for the next two years. The Braves have sacrificed '15 and '16 for a sustained run starting in 2017 when the new ballpark opens in Marietta. Kimbrel will have to be under-utilized for two seasons when there are fewer games to "save," and even then, somewhat irrelevant as the team chases 80 wins. That's a lot of opportunity cost -- in the form of what he might bring back in trade -- for a few extra wins that might catapult the Braves into third place instead of fourth.

Moreover, the gulf between Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera is in the realm of reliability and longevity. Rivera's renown stemmed in part from the metronome-like regularity of his excellence over two decades. Kimbrel has not proven that he will sustain his performance into and through his 30s when bodies, particularly those of hurlers, break down.

Other teams know that, of course, but all it takes is one general manager to salivate at the prospect of acquiring Superman for his pen. Imagine what the Tigers might consider offering from the prospect list for some ninth-inning reliability.

For a team that is future-focused, with their top young stars locked up beyond arbitration, Atlanta might have the opportunity to flip a glitzy, over-appreciated asset for more future stars. It's worth looking into, if the braintrust hasn't already.

Opening Week Nibblings

It's been a Lake Wobegon kind of first week of the season: everything's been above-average.

Take Cliff Lee's opening day start for the Phillies. He faced the minimum 27 batters. That got him through just five innings, during which he got shelled for 11 hits, a walk, and eight runs, while recording just one strikeout. And "earned" the win in a 14-10 scrum.

Two days later, Matt Garza, now representing the good people of Milwaukee, who gave admitted cheater, self-righteous liar and cynical media-manipulator Ryan Braun an ovation, also faced the minimum 27 batters. It got him through eight solid frames against the Braves, during which he limited them to a run on two hits, a walk and seven strikeouts. He took the loss in a 1-0 game.

Hyun-jin Ryu got the loss that he earned in the Dodger home opener when the Giants lit him up for three walks, eight hits and eight runs in two frames. The four relievers who followed -- Jose Dominguez, Brandon League, Chris Withrow and Jamey Wright -- shut out and no-hit the Giants, surrendering just one walk and fanning 10.  

And then there was Mark Buehrle, late of the Toronto Blue Jays. His masterful first start against Tampa Bay came within an out of a complete game four-hit shutout. What was remarkable was the Buehrle struck out 11 Rays -- only the second time he's reached double-digits in his outstanding 15-year career. Even more amazing in a game where three-quarters of all strikeouts require a swing and a miss, Buehrle earned eight of his "K"s looking.

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A gentleman named Charlie Blackmon has apparently accumulated nearly 500  plate appearances with Colorado over the past three years. Who knew? He even hit .309 in spot duty last season. In the Rockies' fourth game this spring, Blackmon torched Diamondback pitchers for three doubles, a home run and two singles in six trips, a 1.000/1.000/2.000 slash line.   

Suppose that was the lefty centerfielder's first game (it wasn't). How many games could he go with a mediocre performance, like a single in four plate appearances, before his batting average dropped below .300? The answer is, it would take 21 more games to fall to .300. He would drop below that mark in his 23rd game. Until then, Blackmon leads the NL in slugging percentage at .963 -- after five tilts.

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You may have noticed that the Houston Triple-As claimed victory in the first two games of the season against the New York Hall of Famers. You might have wondered: what are the odds of that?

Let's do a little supposing and then a little (but not too much) math. Suppose the Astros are a 100-loss team and the Yankees are a 90-win team. Reasonable assumptions, right? And let's suppose that playing in Minute Maid* confers upon the home team a five percent advantage and upon the visitors an equal penalty. What's the likelihood that a .383 squad whips up on a .556 opponent twice in a row?

* Could you find a more pansy name for a ballpark than that? They should have stuck with Enron.

In that scenario, assuming they are what the projections say they are, Houston has a 43% of winning each game. But the odds that they take both is just 18.6%, or less than one-in-five. The Yanks had only a 32% chance -- about one in three -- of sweeping the first two contests. Game three went to New York, so Houston won the series two games to one. The chances of that were roughly one in three. Which is why it wasn't front-page news.

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You want shocking? How about this: Craig Kimbrel is toying with batters again. He's faced nine of them and whiffed six. The league is batting zero against him, with a zero OBP and a zero slugging average. There was that sharply hit infield grounder though. 

A Hart Attack in Atlanta Leaves A Franchise in Great Shape

If Carlos Baerga and Albert Belle join the Braves lineup, we'll know for sure what's afoot in Atlanta. Until then, we see the old Cleveland Indians philosophy of locking up future stars beyond their arbitration years at play in the Home of the Braves (soon to be Marietta).

The original plan, engineered by General Manager John Hart, paid dividends for the Indians, who won six AL Central titles in seven years, made two World Series and should have won one. Hart recognized that his bevy of promising talent -- Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Charles Nagy, Belle and Baerga -- could be locked up through their most productive years with relatively low-cost contracts if he acted early. 

With rampant salary inflation unabated and a new park opening in three years, Hart inked the bulk of Cleveland's future core to team-friendly extensions that bought out arbitration years and a season or two of free agency. His judgment was vindicated when all but Nagy produced beyond their contract terms and then again when Baerga turned into a pumpkin immediately upon the expiration of his.

In the meantime, The Jake (now Progressive Field) filled up for 455 consecutive games. The sellouts spilled into Canton, where fans gobbled up tickets for the Double-A Indians and a chance to see future Cleveland players.

With a similar set of circumstances, and Hart serving as a front office advisor, GM Frank Wren has committed $309 million to five prized on-field assets that will keep them in uniform for the rest of the 20-teens. The Braves now know they can build around Jason Heyward, Julio Teheran, Freddy Freeman, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for at least the next five years. Of the money committed, more than two-thirds will be spent after the Nocahomas unveil their new suburban home.

They also know that if any of the quintet age poorly, the team can let someone else pay gigantic sums for their decline years. In concept it's a beautiful thing. Braves fans know right now that three years from now a deft first baseman, an athletic outfielder with pop, a top-of-the-rotation starter, a slick-fielding shortstop and the best closer anyone has ever seen will anchor their roster. It's no coincidence that Atlanta sent aging free agents Brian McCann and Tim Hudson packing. Those savings have been invested back into the future.

What seems different about this round of Hart attacks is the cost. Though Simmons's signing is almost completely free of downside, some of the others -- Freeman's in particular -- feel mighty rich considering all the risk being taken by the team. The old formula for these deals -- team takes long-term risk ensuring player wealth at a discounted rate -- appears to lack some of the discount. Only if the players fulfill their potential and salary inflation continues to run unchecked will these deals appear to be no-brainers in restrospect.

Nonetheless, if you offered the entire package as a take-it-or-leave-it deal to a smart GM he would take it in a heartbeat. The new stadium will fill team coffers if the win column is well-stocked and this nucleus goes a long way towards ensuring that. Native Americans may have given away Manhattan for $24 in beads but they're redeeming themselves in the baseball front office.

Arbitrosity: Why Craig Kimbrel Has No Chance of Getting His Nine Million

For three seasons, Craig Kimbrel is the greatest closer we've ever seen. Mariano Rivera's transcendence arose from his consistent greatness, but Rivera was never this dominant for three straight seasons.

How dominant? How about awe-inspiring? For three years and a 20-inning drive-by in 2010, Kimbrel is owns a 1.39 ERA with 15 whiffs per nine and a nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio. He's allowed a .155 batting average and a .243 on base percentage, and a home run about every 23 appearances. He's led the NL in saves all three years, converted 93% of his save opportunities the last two years, scored the Rookie of the Year award in 2011 and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting all three seasons despite facing one third as many batters as the starters he regularly out-polls.

Now in his first year of arbitration eligibility, Kimbrel is asking for $9 million. By nearly any baseball economics it's millions less than his full value. Fangraphs estimates he has provided the Braves with $42 million-worth of value for the low-low price of $1.664 million. 

Unfortunately for the 5'10" fireballer, the Braves have no obligation to even the balance sheet. Low early-career salaries are recompense for the massive investment teams make in players from the draft to MLB call-up. Kimbrel's first three seasons were spent compensating Atlanta for all the Minor League busts the ballclub is paying to float around its system.

Nor is the franchise obliged to offer him market wages. Teams are paying $10-$15 million for closers packing 40 saves. Measured another way, teams paid roughly $4.5 million per win against replacement last season, pegging Kimbrel at the same $10-15 million, depending on whose metrics you like best. (Fangraphs pegs his 2013 value at $11.1 million; Baseball-Reference at $13.5 million.) 

First year arbitration cases generally yield roughly 40% of market value. That explains why Atlanta brass has offered the greatest closer of all time (first three years only) "just" $6.55 million. They are saying that they value their closer at $16 million or so.

The difference between Kimbrel's $9 million request and the Braves' $6.55 million offer is the largest in percentage terms, by far, among the 39 cases headed towards arbitration. Kimbrel will have to convince an arbitrator either that he is a five-win pitcher despite throwing just 70 innings or that the value of a win against replacement has skyrocketed to $7 million.

Last year, not a single case went to arbitration. The arbitration proposals served as a foundation for settlements, avoiding what baseball executives, players and agents all agree is a disagreeable process in which the club must denigrate in writing their own highly-prized employee. But the chasm between player and team in this case does not suggest a middle ground. Unless Kimbrel agrees to something much closer to $7 million, or unless his agent and the team are a whisper apart on a multi-year deal, he's headed to an ugly and ultimately futile arbitration case.

After which he'll strike out the side.

Don't Count Out the Braves

Went to see the Braves nip the Tribe in an inter-league tumble yesterday. I predicted at the outset that the Native Americans would win. Jenius!

Few outside of the deep South give Atlanta much chance of winning a championship even though the rest of the division conceded back when Egypt had a democracy.

The Braves lack a singular talent, a significant home run threat or an ace. The leading talent in the lineup will be sipping dinner through a straw for a month. Mike Minor and Julio Teheran project as the top of the playoff rotation, scaring exactly as many people as the Bolivian navy.

Look deeper, though, and you will see a formidable opponent with baseball's best record.

1. Little weakness in the lineup.
They get production from shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Brian McCan and second-sacker Dan Uggla, where most teams wobble. Eight batters have ripped 10 or more home runs. Without Heyward, the outfield's got one Upton too many, but even so, the Braves rank second in the NL in scoring.

2. A bench thick with quality.
Evan Gattis has popped 15 homers in half a season and plugs holes at catcher and corner outfield. Lefty Jordan Schafer gets aboard and swipes bags as an outfield fill-in or as Heyward's replacement. Ditto for switch-hitter Joey Terdoslavich who owns outfield and first-baseman mitts. 

3. Solid, not flashy, defense.
Atlanta ranks fifth in the Majors in defensive efficiency and what it lacks in outfield bats it makes up for with the gloves.

4. A middle-heavy rotation.
There's no Verlander-Scherzer or Kershaw-Greinke combo here, but even after Tim Hudson's broken ankle they go six deep with quality. #5 starter Alex Wood, a rookie southpaw, sports a 2.27 ERA since his call-up eight starts ago. They have the fifth-best ERA in the senior circuit.

5. Something called the best bullpen in the world.
Craig Kimbrel and his sub-one ERA would end the argument, but throw in Luis Avilan, David Carpenter and Jordan Walden's combined ERA under 2.00 and good luck scoring after the sixth inning.

6. A bye and home-field.
You already know they won't repeat last year's depressing one-game elimination. And the home crowd gets an extra opportunity if a series goes the distance.

Put it all together and you've got a tough out. The Dodgers have been hotter lately and appear to have more overall talent, but sleeping on the Braves would not be the work of a jenius.

Unfreakenbelievable

Ron from Boston read the NL Cy Young post and wondered offline if Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel doesn't deserve consideration. Kimbrel's historic domination from the closer position deserves some award, but 63 innings, even high-leverage innings, just aren't as important as 230 from the starter's position.

That said, here in a nutshell is the extent to which Kimbrel toyed with National League hitters:

Just for fun, count all the guys who walked against Kimbrel in 63 innings. Add all the guys who singled, doubled and tripled. Add the three batters who homered. Add both batters hit by pitches. Then add all the batters who grounded out, flew out, popped out, lined out and sacrificed. Add the guys who hit into fielders' choices. Add them all up. All of them. 

That number is 115 batters. Kimbrel struck out 116, more than half the hitters he faced. 

The German word for that is: Unfreakenbelievable.

Can the Braves Win Without A Star?

Now that that Atlanta Braves have slain 2011's demons and clinched their Wild Card berth, it's fair to wonder who exactly is going to carry them through the playoffs.This team is a mile wide and a foot deep, which is a commendable formula for the regular season, but not for the fast twitch muscles of the playoffs. They boast a solid but unspectacular lineup lacking any serious threat and eight plausible starters but perhaps no ace.

On offense, they're the Atlanta Egalitarians. If you asked 100 Braves fans who was their MVP you'd get eight different answers. Jason Heyward is a five-tooler leading the team in home runs...with just 27. Martin Prado is a five-position Gumby leading the team in batting average. Michael Bourn's after burners and noteworthy CF chops combine with a .346 OBP for a stellar leadoff resume. Brian McCann (.297 OBP) has scuffled and Dan Uggla leads the league in walks to offset a .216 batting average. With rookie shortstop Andrelton Simmons, this is a shiny defensive corps. 

(Spell check is going out of its mind over five-tooler, Gumby, OBP, leadoff and Andrelton. Spell check must be a wussy golf fan.)

All well and good, but who's the guy you walk intentionally?

On the hill, they're a hot band without a frontman. Tim Hudson (16-6, 3.61) has cracked the 15-win mark for the eighth time in his outstanding career, but he's no Tim Lincecum Roy Halladay Clayton Kershaw. Craig Kimbrel (1.06 ERA, 107 K in 52 innings, 39 of 41 saves) makes Superman look like David Spade, but closers aren't aces. Kris Medlin, (9-1, 1.64) might be an ace, but he's only started 11 games, all Atlanta wins. He might be the only pitcher in baseball with a save, a hold, a complete game and a shutout.

Then there's Mr. Jones, already a big big star. In his curtain call season he continues to rake .300/.380/.470 despite knees entering their fifth decade. As long as he's upright he remains the  biggest threat to put this team on his back.

Maybe the manager, Fredi Gonzalez, is the MVP. Since Spring Training he has been banishing the ghosts of 2011, waving off questions about their collapse. He clearly learned some lessons, taking the foot off the pedal of Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, whom he wore to a nub by last season's final weeks. He also lightened Chipper's load to keep him healthy, and the result has been 105 games of All Star-level performance and more at bats and glove time for Martin Prado.

It's all moot if they lose their play-in game, but if they don't, it will be interesting to see whether the yin of good pitching, strong defense and a couple of hot bats overwhelms the yang of a no-star team.

A Win Saved Is A Win Earned

When we say that Tim Hudson earned a win yesterday in the Braves game against the Blue Jays, we mean he earned the win. Hudson dominated Toronto over eight shutout innings and plastered a two-run homer for the only scoring of the game. Give that man a cookie.

Hudson relinquished just two hits in eight-plus innings, walking one and fanning eight. For those of you not bothering to keep score, that's a far finer effort than a five-walk, three-strikeout no-hitter.

That said, Hudson owes a tip of the cap and a malt beverage to closer Craig Kimbrel. After Hudson allowed his only free pass and a base hit to start the ninth, Kimbrel entered the game with first and third and the lead on the line. He preceded to blow away Jose Bautista (.330/.476/.657), Jose Lind (.324/.369/.605) and (anti-climax alert) Aaron Hill (.242/.284/.344) on 15 pitches. "Kimbrel" is to "closer" as "pizza" is to "meal."

Sometimes a win really is a win and a save really is a save.

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Now Pitching, Wild Thing

While you're eyeballing Aroldis Chapman's supersonic pitches next season, my gaze will fall on Braves rookie Craig Kimbrel. A third-round pick in '08, the 22-year-old Alabaman has bedazzled major league hitters since his September call-up this year.

Kimbrel is Nook Laloosh without the girlfriend. He faced 80 batters in his first 19 relief appearances and walked 14 of them. Eight of them touched him up for hits. And 37 of them struck out. 

He had an 0.47 ERA. That's good, you know.

In Triple-A Gwinnett this year, he walked 35 in 55 innings. And struck out 83. Those minor leaguers managed a hit every other inning off him. What do they know that major leaguers don't?

The Braves are talking about making him a starter, so there's a lot more to the story to be written. In the meantime, enjoy the fireworks.

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